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May we finally see the darling buds ... patterns and models


Typhoon Tip

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8 hours ago, White Rain said:

.24” of on the day, rained almost all day but light for the most part. The gypsies have not made it up here the last few years. Mostly a pike south problem. Hopefully they stay down there or die off.

You're lucky...nearly 2 Million acres affected between Massachusetts and Connecticut last year.  I think it will be more localized this year.

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Looks like an interesting weekend upcoming for seasonal heat and thunder as depicted via the Euro/GFS depictions. 

The idea is in line with what is left of the teleconnectors, which have been biased on the side of a warm mid month for while now.  Perennially, those mass-field indicators lose correlation coefficients in the summer ... particularly with the PNA. Otherwise, the NAO is hugely positive and the PNA is in fact dropping negative...and with the EPO getting almost useless do to seasonal R-wave break-down ... (positive in either case) that all pretty much parlays to warm departures here. 

Both the Euro and GFS agree that a warm frontal thrust will turn Saturday warm and humid by days end... and probably bring an "air" (pun on-purpose of course..) of torridity to Sunday.  More so in the Euro ... It should come as no surprise that the GFS is cooler; it manufactures cooler boundary layers ... seemingly doing so even in the absence of any physical process - both a mind-boggling albeit annoying quality for that particular tool..  (edit: as an after thought on that .. you know, the GFS has a warm bias in the winter during cold events... so mirror. It's almost like the model just straight up had any attempt at all at BL resolution deliberately left out of the last install... and is thus relying on some base-line equations to canvas everything.)   Anyway, not a shocker that its pretty much useless 2-meter temp progs are like .. 78 F at KFIT at mid afternoon when there is WSW wind, 850 mb temperatures of +16 C and amply sun... Good luck.

The Euro doesn't provide 2-m maps at the free sources but experience alone ... that model actually does contain lower tropospheric resolution (incredible), and so doesn't jerk around like that.. Probably that set up would cast 91 at a minimum for that day next Sunday, but only out of respect for being 6.5 days out. Otherwise, having +18 C 850's spread out over everywhere S of ORD-PWM in tall, mixed sounding... all of which are associated with a bona fide s-trop ridge bulging through the OV is a hot time of it.

The front is active as it is draped from the western Lakes to PF or just N of him from Saturday through next Monday or Tuesday.. It's walling off some residual cold across southern Canada, with somewhat anomalous mid and upper level wind flow paralleling it and collocated over-top... It would seem almost likely in that synoptic evolution to have periodic MCS' and such igniting and peeling S into the warm air.  

Overall it would be different than this last mere primer heat we experienced.  It would actually seem hot this time. The Euro solution would (probably) hoist HI's more up there, because DPs are more proficiently transported (if not locally manufactured) into the region.    

 

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5 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A workweek of COC type weather incoming...enjoy it before Tip's heat and high dews arrive

I know what you meant .. but, it's not "my heat" per se...  It's just what the tele's and the operational tenor happen(ed) to agree upon - sort of like, just reporting - 

That said, the 12z cycle backs off slightly on the scale/degree of the Sunday Monday warm potential, though it is still there. It's been sloshing more then less, probably normal behavior at this time range. 

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Had a good hard frost/freeze this morning with 30F and had to scrape the windshield.  It's funny how damn annoying that is this time of year, scraping and waiting for the defroster to get going.  

My wife got anxious and started planting the lettuce so had to cover up part of the garden.  Still think we have a couple more frosts to go.

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32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Had a good hard frost/freeze this morning with 30F and had to scrape the windshield.  It's funny how damn annoying that is this time of year, scraping and waiting for the defroster to get going.  

My wife got anxious and started planting the lettuce so had to cover up part of the garden.  Still think we have a couple more frosts to go.

My 169-day run of mornings 32 or colder was followed by 13 with lows 37 or milder.  That ended with this morning's frost and low near 30.  Only one year had a final frost earlier than today (5/2 in 2011), so odds point to some more in the coming weeks.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM is pretty brutal with high temperatures on Thursday here...looks like it has a pretty ugly inversion and we don't mix at all. (Not saying I buy it but it's interesting to see) 

Typical NAM BS. It's May. A little sun and we'll mix fine.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Typical NAM BS. It's May. A little sun and we'll mix fine.

Yeah I can't see how we won't mix...gusty SW winds ahead of the cold front and we'll have sun. My thinking was since it had more southerly winds it drew in marine air which reduced mixing capability but with the reasons just mentioned I can't see it. Going with a high in the low 70's for DXR

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Warm muggy period coming up in SNE Sat-Middle of next week. But no real rains. We dry

I'm not convinced we'll be totally dry. With westerly to northwesterly flow aloft we should see multiple pieces of s/w energy move within the flow and I think we'll have instances for t'storm chances

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