bdgwx Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 Here is the radar screenshot of the Redding, CA firenado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 Hit 98F today in Albuquerque. That is pretty hot for August here. All-time August record is 101F, we last hit 100F in 1994 in August. Even 98F in August is pretty rare, last happened in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 Vertical cumulus clouds in the evening light. What you can't see from this picture: the Mummy Range, which is normally visible. Today there were some supercells with 2-3" hail over the plains of NE Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 perhaps another severe storm, 70dbz, hail, near Mayjawintastawm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 Nice anvil with it, but too far SE. Was triggered by the outflow from a storm over the Springs. That's OK, we've had enough hail for a while. Could use some more rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 9, 2018 Author Share Posted August 9, 2018 Yesterday, I drove about 1 mi from my place of Loveland to see if I could get a good picture to the south. (thunder/hail) then I got some big splatty drops. Then I ran back to my car. Then I got this picture about 1/2 or 1 hour later, of a hailstorm that tracked into Loveland and then went southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 11, 2018 Author Share Posted August 11, 2018 Supposedly, the smoke concentration wasn't even that bad today, but then you still get Long's Peak looking like a ghost contrast-enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 13, 2018 Author Share Posted August 13, 2018 I finally captured the weird red sky at sunset - it's just a little influenced by the wildfire smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 Chinook, I had the pleasure of spending the past week at Estes Park and Rocky Mountain National Park. First time in Colorado since 1989. Did not go through Fort Collins though. Had great weather to drive Trail Ridge Road to lookouts with clear blue skies. Glad I wasn't in Colorado Springs for that massive hailstorm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 13 hours ago, Indystorm said: Chinook, I had the pleasure of spending the past week at Estes Park and Rocky Mountain National Park. First time in Colorado since 1989. Did not go through Fort Collins though. Had great weather to drive Trail Ridge Road to lookouts with clear blue skies. Glad I wasn't in Colorado Springs for that massive hailstorm though. Good thing you aren't here this week. I went up trail ridge road yesterday and visibility was not too great as we have a ton of California smoke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 This summer has been terrible in SLC. Smoky, hot, and dry. I've had one thunderstorm since mid June, but might have a chance tomorrow night at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 I'm sad to hear that W. Colorado and Utah are remaining in drought. Grand Junction had 0.08" of rain in July (average is 0.61"). Around here, we had some decent rains in Loveland on Tuesday, with trace-0.20" in Fort Collins also. There were rain showers some of the city and foothill areas on Tuesday. These past 2 or 3 days have continued to have moderate to high smoke (vertically integrated smoke, if you look at HRRR-smoke model) My view of the Mummy Range and Long's Peak has been blocked since yesterday. The peaks seem to have disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 One of these years we'll get an east-based El Nino that isn't super strong, and I think a lot of the West will simultaneously recover for water storage and water tables. 2016-17 wasn't half bad, just warm here, so a lot of it evaporated, but it was amazing seeing how quickly the water came in went in the past 18 months. The east-based events seem to exert more control on precip patterns in UT/CO than the Modoki Enso events. My winter last year was among the all-time hot/dry combo winters. The winters that follow those are kind of legendary, and the Summers in those years have been somewhat similar to this year, fairly warm, but also pretty wet. It's 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2006 - those are the years after the all-time terrible winters out here for both heat and precip. The SOI blend for those five years is -14 or something in August, which is kind of what this August looks like. The big -SOI in August is usually a decent indicator for major moisture in Feb/Mar in the following March in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Monday: mid 70's with no clouds. It would have been nice, but the smoke was so thick that the visibility was 2-3 miles. There was a smell of smoke in the air. Trace of rain, Monday night. The air quality index showed "unhealthy" values. Tuesday, high of 71 and cloudy. Smoke was still here, with visibility 4-8 miles, with no smell of smoke. Trace to 0.01" of rain. Wednesday, mid 70's again. We had partly sunny conditions. At 7:30 PM, Long's Peak was (finally) visible to me without haze. 20-40 mile visibility. There were some rain showers over the mountains at times. Weather models overestimated rainfall here. Precipitation since Sunday has been very weak here, but 0.3" to 0.5" in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 I can't find any data to support it...maybe the major cold push in the Northern Rockies? But I kind of think we get some snow here, even in the valleys this year in October. Happened in 2002 & 2009 even in the city. My tentative winter analogs (1934-35, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07) have near identical rains in Albuquerque to observed rains this Summer, except that the rains are happening 2-3 weeks earlier than in the mean of the data. I am getting sick of how August always seems to fail here for major rains. You can get 3-4 inches of rain in August here, but we haven't had a meaningfully wet August since 2006. Wettest August since 2006 is 1.62", barely above average (<+10%). It is especially annoying since August + October rainfall here is a strong indicator for March snows, and low is bad. GFS has like 0.2" or something for the rest of the month, could realistically still finish August under an inch yet again if we don't get walloped tomorrow or during the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Overall, some positive things have happened. Some areas of 0.5" to 1.5" in Colorado and Utah provided some drought relief in the short term. Northwest Colorado had been extremely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 26, 2018 Author Share Posted August 26, 2018 Friday/ Saturday. We have had some upper 80's to 90 on these days. Friday, the visibility was very poor again. My estimate is that the visibility was 4-5 miles on Friday, perhaps improving towards evening. Saturday, the visibility improved greatly to a fairly normal 20-40 miles. Here is my pic of the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 NAM has snow in Wyoming in the coming hours. Awesome to see. Not unheard of at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Quiet weather continues in Utah. Although we did have a day with some severe storms about 10 days ago or so. Pattern change coming up may yield more rain chances with ensemble showing a mean trough over the west coast in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Hope so! NWS BOU keeps talking about it but it's always 36 hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: Hope so! NWS BOU keeps talking about it but it's always 36 hrs away. Pretty strong trough signal somewhere near the west coast days 7-10, but if it goes too far west we will see dry SW winds kick up instead of a refreshing cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Local history and Sept 1-4 observations here suggest we're at a 70%+ chance September will be colder than average (1931-2017 basis) at least for high temperatures. I think this will be my first cold month on that basis since...August 2017. I really hate east-based La Ninas. I have this document called "controls" that looks at future outcomes after unusual conditions in a month. Cold September highs (2F or more below the 1951-2010 average) are associated with: - Cold January highs (2F or more below average) - Snowy February (>=3" in Albuquerque, average is 1.9") Those are the main effects. Cold DJF is more likely, as is >=3" in January. Also, other than El Nino, a cold September is the best early indicator of two months in Oct-May with over 3" of snow, and >=6 inches of snow in February to May. Rainy/cold July is associated with heavy snow in December, and December as the snowiest month. July was rainy, but not cold. I'm expecting a slightly colder than normal and slightly wetter than normal winter here at this point, with around a foot of snow (+25%) from Oct-May. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 After a partly sunny 80-degree day yesterday, some thunderstorms developed at 10PM or 11PM, at the foothills. Then this happened. (Denver is in the center of this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 I know- we had quite the time 1-4 AM with heavy rain that sounded like wind it was so heavy. Of course we're in a massive COCORAHS hole SE of town (I would join, but would be too unreliable due to time constraints). But pretty sure we had over an inch. The dog shook the whole bed having a nervous breakdown. I am tired today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 With September 1/5 over now, my mean high is 80.3F - that is 4th coldest here since 1931, behind only 1938, 1961, and 2006. The 1931-2017 mean high for Sep 1-6 here is 87.0F - so 6.7F below normal. The 30-year mean is lower, as the 1950s (warm AMO & high solar) had some absurdly hot Septembers, as did the late 1970s here. ABQ Sept 1-6 Mean Hi 1 9/6/1938 75.0 2 9/6/1961 76.5 3 9/6/2006 76.7 4 9/6/1988 80.8 - 9/6/1950 80.8 6 9/6/1975 81.2 7 9/6/2004 81.3 8 9/6/1972 81.5 9 9/6/1966 81.7 10 9/6/1977 81.8 11 9/6/1999 82.2 - 9/6/1935 82.2 13 9/6/2005 82.8 - 9/6/1970 82.8 15 9/6/1987 83.0 - 9/6/1965 83.0 17 9/6/1967 83.3 - 9/6/1963 83.3 19 9/6/1968 84.0 20 9/6/1942 84.2 21 9/6/2007 84.3 22 9/6/2003 84.5 23 9/6/2008 84.7 - 9/6/1994 84.7 25 9/6/1985 84.8 26 9/6/1981 85.0 - 9/6/1940 85.0 28 9/6/1984 85.2 29 9/6/2015 85.5 - 9/6/1976 85.5 31 9/6/1986 85.7 32 9/6/1991 86.0 33 9/6/1974 86.3 34 9/6/1996 86.5 - 9/6/1944 86.5 36 9/6/2009 86.7 - 9/6/1969 86.7 - 9/6/1934 86.7 39 9/6/1997 86.8 - 9/6/1993 86.8 - 9/6/1990 86.8 - 9/6/1941 86.8 - 9/6/1932 86.8 44 9/6/1992 87.2 - 9/6/1962 87.2 - 9/6/1957 87.2 47 9/6/1971 87.3 48 9/6/2011 87.5 - 9/6/1978 87.5 50 9/6/2016 87.7 - 9/6/1936 87.7 52 9/6/1989 87.8 53 9/6/1998 88.0 - 9/6/1973 88.0 - 9/6/1931 88.0 56 9/6/1953 88.3 - 9/6/1943 88.3 58 9/6/1980 88.7 - 9/6/1946 88.7 60 9/6/2001 89.0 61 9/6/1964 89.2 62 9/6/2014 89.5 - 9/6/1954 89.5 - 9/6/1937 89.5 65 9/6/2010 89.7 - 9/6/2002 89.7 - 9/6/1949 89.7 68 9/6/2017 90.0 69 9/6/1960 90.2 70 9/6/2000 90.3 - 9/6/1958 90.3 72 9/6/2013 90.5 73 9/6/1956 90.7 - 9/6/1933 90.7 75 9/6/1955 91.0 76 9/6/1947 92.3 77 9/6/1952 92.5 78 9/6/1939 92.7 79 9/6/1982 92.8 - 9/6/1959 92.8 81 9/6/2012 93.0 - 9/6/1945 93.0 83 9/6/1951 93.5 84 9/6/1995 93.7 85 9/6/1948 95.2 86 9/6/1983 97.0 - 9/6/1979 97.0 Mean Hi 87.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 We had a breezy hot, dry day today with winds out of the south and west. A random rain shower hit Loveland for a few minutes. Otherwise, it was a beautiful partly cloudy day, with maybe a couple of areas of virga/ rain showers. I don't even know how the rain happened, given the dew point around Denver was near 32 degrees. I wish there would be anything interesting. The forecast is just repeated 90 and sunny. Fort Collins-Loveland Airport: 94 Greeley 96 Broomfield-Jeffco: 86 Front Range Airport: 93 KDEN Denver 93 degrees KAPA- Arapahoe County- Centennial 89 degrees KBKF - Denver Buckley AFB 90 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 We hit 90F here for like 10 minutes today, first 90F high since 8/31. My Fall Outlook had Sept-Nov highs around 5F colder than last year, for Sept 1-10 (1/9 of Fall) we are 6.5F colder than last year, so far so good. September has warmed up some in the past few days, but month to date we remain around 1F or 1.5F below normal, more for just highs. I'm expecting we steal a cold high day at some point next week if a tropical disturbance or remnants make it to bottom of RGV and get pulled northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Took a break from Florence to ponder a bit and realize that it's consistently in the low 90s this week here. Is DEN hotter than ABQ usually in September? So weird. Seems like warm, dry and dark is becoming the fall norm. Well, it's always been dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/11/2018 at 6:33 PM, Chinook said: We had a breezy hot, dry day today with winds out of the south and west. A random rain shower hit Loveland for a few minutes. Otherwise, it was a beautiful partly cloudy day, with maybe a couple of areas of virga/ rain showers. I don't even know how the rain happened, given the dew point around Denver was near 32 degrees. I wish there would be anything interesting. The forecast is just repeated 90 and sunny. Fort Collins-Loveland Airport: 94 Greeley 96 Broomfield-Jeffco: 86 Front Range Airport: 93 KDEN Denver 93 degrees KAPA- Arapahoe County- Centennial 89 degrees KBKF - Denver Buckley AFB 90 degrees Yeah I'm definitely with you. Wish there would be SOMETHING interesting in the weather happening around here, other than the usual high pressure systems, dryness and high temperature records. This has been a bad year overall - especially in western CO. I'm in the foothills NW of Fort Collins and we're starting to have the drought conditions here that the mountains and west have had for several months. My 'unofficial' count where I am is 49 days without any significant precip (> .25"). I'm real close to a CSU weather station so I have good data. The precip has been spotty and I know other locations have fared better. With the hot, dry, windy weather of this week it has reached a tipping point as there are more fires popping up every day (as you'd expect with this type of pattern). The culprit seems to be a massive high pressure system(s) hanging on in the western US - don't know why these systems keep forming but it unless/until the situation changes we'll keep getting what we've been getting. This time of year you hear a lot of people lamenting the onset of fall and chillier weather. I'm the opposite - I've had enough of summer and am looking forward to fall weather. Given the current pattern (90 degree temps all week) this does not even seem plausible for some time. It's going to take something pretty major to shake up this entrenched pattern. Thanks for letting me vent this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/11/2018 at 8:46 PM, raindancewx said: We hit 90F here for like 10 minutes today, first 90F high since 8/31. My Fall Outlook had Sept-Nov highs around 5F colder than last year, for Sept 1-10 (1/9 of Fall) we are 6.5F colder than last year, so far so good. September has warmed up some in the past few days, but month to date we remain around 1F or 1.5F below normal, more for just highs. I'm expecting we steal a cold high day at some point next week if a tropical disturbance or remnants make it to bottom of RGV and get pulled northward. Raindance - good to hear, it seems that NM is faring much better than most of CO this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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