Mountain West Discussion

[bdgwx]

Here is the radar screenshot of the Redding, CA firenado.

[raindancewx]

Hit 98F today in Albuquerque. That is pretty hot for August here. All-time August record is 101F, we last hit 100F in 1994 in August. Even 98F in August is pretty rare, last happened in 2015.

[Chinook]

Vertical cumulus clouds in the evening light. What you can't see from this picture: the Mummy Range, which is normally visible. Today there were some supercells with 2-3" hail over the plains of NE Colorado.

[Chinook]

perhaps another severe storm, 70dbz, hail, near Mayjawintastawm

 

[mayjawintastawm]

Nice anvil with it, but too far SE. Was triggered by the outflow from a storm over the Springs. That's OK, we've had enough hail for a while. Could use some more rain though.

[Chinook]

Yesterday, I drove about 1 mi from my place of Loveland to see if I could get a good picture to the south.  (thunder/hail) then I got some big splatty drops. Then I ran back to my car. Then I got this picture about 1/2 or 1 hour later, of a hailstorm that tracked into Loveland and then went southeast.

[Chinook]

Supposedly, the smoke concentration wasn't even that bad today, but then you still get Long's Peak looking like a ghost

 

contrast-enhanced

 

[Chinook]

I finally captured the weird red sky at sunset - it's just a little influenced by the wildfire smoke

[Indystorm]

Chinook, I had the pleasure of spending the past week at Estes Park and Rocky Mountain National Park.  First time in Colorado since 1989.  Did not go through Fort Collins though.  Had great weather to drive Trail Ridge Road to lookouts with clear blue skies.  Glad I wasn't in Colorado Springs for that massive hailstorm though.

[ValpoVike]

13 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Chinook, I had the pleasure of spending the past week at Estes Park and Rocky Mountain National Park.  First time in Colorado since 1989.  Did not go through Fort Collins though.  Had great weather to drive Trail Ridge Road to lookouts with clear blue skies.  Glad I wasn't in Colorado Springs for that massive hailstorm though.

Good thing you aren't here this week.  I went up trail ridge road yesterday and visibility was not too great as we have a ton of California smoke...

 

[BlizzardWx]

This summer has been terrible in SLC. Smoky, hot, and dry. I've had one thunderstorm since mid June, but might have a chance tomorrow night at least. 

[Chinook]

I'm sad to hear that W. Colorado and Utah are remaining in drought.  Grand Junction had 0.08" of rain in July (average is 0.61").  Around here, we had some decent rains in Loveland on Tuesday, with trace-0.20" in Fort Collins also. There were rain showers some of the city and foothill areas on Tuesday. These past 2 or 3 days have continued to have moderate to high smoke (vertically integrated smoke, if you look at HRRR-smoke model) My view of the Mummy Range and Long's Peak has been blocked since yesterday. The peaks seem to have disappeared.

[raindancewx]

One of these years we'll get an east-based El Nino that isn't super strong, and I think a lot of the West will simultaneously recover for water storage and water tables. 2016-17 wasn't half bad, just warm here, so a lot of it evaporated, but it was amazing seeing how quickly the water came in went in the past 18 months. The east-based events seem to exert more control on precip patterns in UT/CO than the Modoki Enso events.

My winter last year was among the all-time hot/dry combo winters. The winters that follow those are kind of legendary, and the Summers in those years have been somewhat similar to this year, fairly warm, but also pretty wet. It's 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2006 - those are the years after the all-time terrible winters out here for both heat and precip. The SOI blend for those five years is -14 or something in August, which is kind of what this August looks like. The big -SOI in August is usually a decent indicator for major moisture in Feb/Mar in the following March in the SW.

[Chinook]

Monday: mid 70's with no clouds. It would have been nice, but the smoke was so thick that the visibility was 2-3 miles. There was a smell of smoke in the air. Trace of rain, Monday night. The air quality index showed "unhealthy" values.

Tuesday, high of 71 and cloudy. Smoke was still here, with visibility 4-8 miles, with no smell of smoke. Trace to 0.01" of rain.

Wednesday, mid 70's again. We had partly sunny conditions. At 7:30 PM, Long's Peak was (finally) visible to me without haze. 20-40 mile visibility. There were some rain showers over the mountains at times. 

Weather models overestimated rainfall here. Precipitation since Sunday has been very weak here, but 0.3" to 0.5" in some areas

 

[raindancewx]

I can't find any data to support it...maybe the major cold push in the Northern Rockies? But I kind of think we get some snow here, even in the valleys this year in October. Happened in 2002 & 2009 even in the city.

My tentative winter analogs (1934-35, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07) have near identical rains in Albuquerque to observed rains this Summer, except that the rains are happening 2-3 weeks earlier than in the mean of the data.

I am getting sick of how August always seems to fail here for major rains. You can get 3-4 inches of rain in August here, but we haven't had a meaningfully wet August since 2006. Wettest August since 2006 is 1.62", barely above average (<+10%). It is especially annoying since August + October rainfall here is a strong indicator for March snows, and low is bad. GFS has like 0.2" or something for the rest of the month, could realistically still finish August under an inch yet again if we don't get walloped tomorrow or during the weekend.

[Chinook]

Overall, some positive things have happened. Some areas of 0.5" to 1.5" in Colorado and Utah provided some drought relief in the short term. Northwest Colorado had been extremely dry. 

 

[Chinook]

Friday/ Saturday. We have had some upper 80's to 90 on these days. Friday, the visibility was very poor again. My estimate is that the visibility was 4-5 miles on Friday, perhaps improving towards evening. Saturday, the visibility improved greatly to a fairly normal 20-40 miles. Here is my pic of the peak.

[raindancewx]

NAM has snow in Wyoming in the coming hours. Awesome to see. Not unheard of at all.

[BlizzardWx]

Quiet weather continues in Utah. Although we did have a day with some severe storms about 10 days ago or so. Pattern change coming up may yield more rain chances with ensemble showing a mean trough over the west coast in the extended. 

[mayjawintastawm]

Hope so! NWS BOU keeps talking about it but it's always 36 hrs away.

[BlizzardWx]

3 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Hope so! NWS BOU keeps talking about it but it's always 36 hrs away.

Pretty strong trough signal somewhere near the west coast days 7-10, but if it goes too far west we will see dry SW winds kick up instead of a refreshing cool down.

[raindancewx]

Local history and Sept 1-4 observations here suggest we're at a 70%+ chance September will be colder than average (1931-2017 basis) at least for high temperatures. I think this will be my first cold month on that basis since...August 2017. I really hate east-based La Ninas.

I have this document called "controls" that looks at future outcomes after unusual conditions in a month. Cold September highs (2F or more below the 1951-2010 average) are associated with: 

- Cold January highs (2F or more below average)

- Snowy February (>=3" in Albuquerque, average is 1.9")

Those are the main effects. Cold DJF is more likely, as is >=3" in January. Also, other than El Nino, a cold September is the best early indicator of two months in Oct-May with over 3" of snow, and >=6 inches of snow in February to May.

Rainy/cold July is associated with heavy snow in December, and December as the snowiest month. July was rainy, but not cold. I'm expecting a slightly colder than normal and slightly wetter than normal winter here at this point, with around a foot of snow (+25%) from Oct-May. We'll see.

[Chinook]

After a partly sunny 80-degree day yesterday, some thunderstorms developed at 10PM or 11PM, at the foothills. Then this happened. (Denver is in the center of this)

[mayjawintastawm]

I know- we had quite the time 1-4 AM with heavy rain that sounded like wind it was so heavy. Of course we're in a massive COCORAHS hole SE of town (I would join, but would be too unreliable due to time constraints). But pretty sure we had over an inch. The dog shook the whole bed having a nervous breakdown. I am tired today.

[raindancewx]

With September 1/5 over now, my mean high is 80.3F - that is 4th coldest here since 1931, behind only 1938, 1961, and 2006. The 1931-2017 mean high for Sep 1-6 here is 87.0F - so 6.7F below normal. The 30-year mean is lower, as the 1950s (warm AMO & high solar) had some absurdly hot Septembers, as did the late 1970s here.

ABQ	Sept 1-6	Mean Hi
1	9/6/1938	75.0
2	9/6/1961	76.5
3	9/6/2006	76.7
4	9/6/1988	80.8
-	9/6/1950	80.8
6	9/6/1975	81.2
7	9/6/2004	81.3
8	9/6/1972	81.5
9	9/6/1966	81.7
10	9/6/1977	81.8
11	9/6/1999	82.2
-	9/6/1935	82.2
13	9/6/2005	82.8
-	9/6/1970	82.8
15	9/6/1987	83.0
-	9/6/1965	83.0
17	9/6/1967	83.3
-	9/6/1963	83.3
19	9/6/1968	84.0
20	9/6/1942	84.2
21	9/6/2007	84.3
22	9/6/2003	84.5
23	9/6/2008	84.7
-	9/6/1994	84.7
25	9/6/1985	84.8
26	9/6/1981	85.0
-	9/6/1940	85.0
28	9/6/1984	85.2
29	9/6/2015	85.5
-	9/6/1976	85.5
31	9/6/1986	85.7
32	9/6/1991	86.0
33	9/6/1974	86.3
34	9/6/1996	86.5
-	9/6/1944	86.5
36	9/6/2009	86.7
-	9/6/1969	86.7
-	9/6/1934	86.7
39	9/6/1997	86.8
-	9/6/1993	86.8
-	9/6/1990	86.8
-	9/6/1941	86.8
-	9/6/1932	86.8
44	9/6/1992	87.2
-	9/6/1962	87.2
-	9/6/1957	87.2
47	9/6/1971	87.3
48	9/6/2011	87.5
-	9/6/1978	87.5
50	9/6/2016	87.7
-	9/6/1936	87.7
52	9/6/1989	87.8
53	9/6/1998	88.0
-	9/6/1973	88.0
-	9/6/1931	88.0
56	9/6/1953	88.3
-	9/6/1943	88.3
58	9/6/1980	88.7
-	9/6/1946	88.7
60	9/6/2001	89.0
61	9/6/1964	89.2
62	9/6/2014	89.5
-	9/6/1954	89.5
-	9/6/1937	89.5
65	9/6/2010	89.7
-	9/6/2002	89.7
-	9/6/1949	89.7
68	9/6/2017	90.0
69	9/6/1960	90.2
70	9/6/2000	90.3
-	9/6/1958	90.3
72	9/6/2013	90.5
73	9/6/1956	90.7
-	9/6/1933	90.7
75	9/6/1955	91.0
76	9/6/1947	92.3
77	9/6/1952	92.5
78	9/6/1939	92.7
79	9/6/1982	92.8
-	9/6/1959	92.8
81	9/6/2012	93.0
-	9/6/1945	93.0
83	9/6/1951	93.5
84	9/6/1995	93.7
85	9/6/1948	95.2
86	9/6/1983	97.0
-	9/6/1979	97.0
	Mean Hi	87.0

[Chinook]

We had a breezy hot, dry day today with winds out of the south and west. A random rain shower hit Loveland for a few minutes. Otherwise, it was a beautiful partly cloudy day, with maybe a couple of areas of virga/ rain showers. I don't even know how the rain happened, given the dew point around Denver was near 32 degrees. I wish there would be anything interesting. The forecast is just repeated 90 and sunny.
Fort Collins-Loveland Airport: 94
Greeley 96
Broomfield-Jeffco: 86
Front Range Airport: 93
KDEN Denver 93 degrees
KAPA- Arapahoe County- Centennial 89 degrees
KBKF - Denver Buckley AFB 90 degrees

 

[raindancewx]

We hit 90F here for like 10 minutes today, first 90F high since 8/31. My Fall Outlook had Sept-Nov highs around 5F colder than last year, for Sept 1-10 (1/9 of Fall) we are 6.5F colder than last year, so far so good. September has warmed up some in the past few days, but month to date we remain around 1F or 1.5F below normal, more for just highs. I'm expecting we steal a cold high day at some point next week if a tropical disturbance or remnants make it to bottom of RGV and get pulled northward.

[mayjawintastawm]

Took a break from Florence to ponder a bit and realize that it's consistently in the low 90s this week here. Is DEN hotter than ABQ usually in September? So weird.  Seems like warm, dry and dark is becoming the fall norm. Well, it's always been dark.

[finnster]

On 9/11/2018 at 6:33 PM, Chinook said:

We had a breezy hot, dry day today with winds out of the south and west. A random rain shower hit Loveland for a few minutes. Otherwise, it was a beautiful partly cloudy day, with maybe a couple of areas of virga/ rain showers. I don't even know how the rain happened, given the dew point around Denver was near 32 degrees. I wish there would be anything interesting. The forecast is just repeated 90 and sunny.
Fort Collins-Loveland Airport: 94
Greeley 96
Broomfield-Jeffco: 86
Front Range Airport: 93
KDEN Denver 93 degrees
KAPA- Arapahoe County- Centennial 89 degrees
KBKF - Denver Buckley AFB 90 degrees

Yeah I'm definitely with you.  Wish there would be SOMETHING interesting in the weather happening around here, other than the usual high pressure systems, dryness and high temperature records.  This has been a bad year overall - especially in western CO.  I'm in the foothills NW of Fort Collins and we're starting to have the drought conditions here that the mountains and west have had for several months.  My 'unofficial' count where I am is 49 days without any significant precip (> .25").  I'm real close to a CSU weather station so I have good data.  The precip has been spotty and I know other locations have fared better.  With the hot, dry, windy weather of this week it has reached a tipping point as there are more fires popping up every day (as you'd expect with this type of pattern).

The culprit seems to be a massive high pressure system(s) hanging on in the western US - don't know why these systems keep forming but it unless/until the situation changes we'll keep getting what we've been getting.  This time of year you hear a lot of people lamenting the onset of fall and chillier weather.  I'm the opposite - I've had enough of summer and am looking forward to fall weather.  Given the current pattern (90 degree temps all week) this does not even seem plausible for some time.  It's going to take something pretty major to shake up this entrenched pattern.

Thanks for letting me vent this morning.
 

 

[finnster]

On 9/11/2018 at 8:46 PM, raindancewx said:

We hit 90F here for like 10 minutes today, first 90F high since 8/31. My Fall Outlook had Sept-Nov highs around 5F colder than last year, for Sept 1-10 (1/9 of Fall) we are 6.5F colder than last year, so far so good. September has warmed up some in the past few days, but month to date we remain around 1F or 1.5F below normal, more for just highs. I'm expecting we steal a cold high day at some point next week if a tropical disturbance or remnants make it to bottom of RGV and get pulled northward.

Raindance - good to hear, it seems that NM is faring much better than most of CO this year....