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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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There have been some tornado warnings in Wyoming. This one apparently produced a tornado in the Laramie Range foothills near Vedawoo hiking and climbing area. Also in here you can see that traffic on I-80, uphill from Cheyenne, helps reflect the radar extremely well.

lJJ2K1R.png

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For anyone who remembers, my PDO Nov-Apr forecast method, blending October Nino 1.2 readings prior to winter with the PDO base state in Mar-Aug prior to winter ended up working pretty well at predicting the PDO for this past Nov-Apr. I tested it in three ways: Using anomalies against the most recent 30 years, against 1951-2010 means, and by actual SSTs, not anomalies. Run away winner was by SSTs, I dug this out from last October and filled in the final PDO value for Nov-Apr (+0.30).

DeUAkCNVwAAurq6.jpg:large

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The storms developed over Loveland and Fort Collins quickly, but it isn't severe. The mesoscale models showed this sort of thing, so it's not too much of a surprise. Maybe winds of 30mph or more.

 

And, for what it's worth, my GRLevel3 program is not getting any new information from the NWS data servers. The data is quite old. Thankfully, rest of the internet seems to have the data up to the minute.

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I found some bolts from a small storm near Loveland. Perfect setting to get a view of this storm from 10-20 miles away. I did this with a normal digital camera and I played it on Windows media player. I slowed down the play speed and stopped it at this moment. 

 

sD1i2dg.jpg

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Laramie tornado pic is a great example of the RFD clear slot coming in. Right up into the wall cloud a horseshoe shape forms. Plus broken skies are behind it. Inflow balances perfectly, and the result is a gorgeous tornado. 

Apparently I should have flown to CYS this week.

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15 hours ago, Chinook said:

Here's a terrific picture of a tornado in the Laramie plain area, 7100 ft

PvXgIY2.jpg

One of the most photogenic tornados I've seen. LP supercell, in an area with great visibility. Also it has a symmetric barbell shape instead of a cone.

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The Midwest has been something like +7.5F for these two weeks. My area has been about +7 to +9 degrees F this week. Denver was 12.3 degrees above normal from Sunday to Saturday. Fort Collins tied a record high of 95 on Tuesday. This area typically doesn't get much 95's before June 15th.

7c047Fg.png

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Blech. And this past hour, an 87 degree F dewpoint spread (95/8) at Buckley AFB, not far from where I work. Kind of surprised we didn't hit 100 this weekend at one of the metro measuring stations, though the earliest 100 F on record at DEN was 6/11 just a few years ago. Hope the monsoon pans out this year. With less western ridging lately, looks a bit more promising.

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The drought in the Dakota and TX Panhandle from last Fall implied a pretty hot start to Summer in the Plains to me, the high that prevented precipitation for five months in Amarillo wasn't just going to pack up its bags and leave. I will say, once AZ & NM start getting wet consistently, which should happen over the next ten days, the real core of the heat will get crippled to some extent. The remnant moisture from the storms in the E. Pac should help with everything.

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Sunset over the mountains, 6/11. Some reddish tint to the sky may be related to fires over Colorado, Utah, and a new fire that is 35 mi southwest of Laramie WY. I saw the smoke plume of that fire today, as it is only 60-65 miles away. One thing is for sure. I never got a good picture of sunset over the mountains when I lived in Ohio.

SfeSUsF.jpg

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The weather disturbance associated with Tropical Storm Bud will be moving through the Southwest. There are already a few showers and thunderstorms in AZ and NM right now. This could be fairly helpful for the Southwest, with 1/2" to 1" of rain, Maybe this will help the firefighters contain the 416 Fire near Durango CO. Farther out, there could be some heavier rains in Colorado. 

People around here are mentioning the smoke cloud from the expanding Badger Creek fire (southwest of Laramie, WY). I saw some of that at sunset last night.

 

EiOl1fn.gif

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Today has seen 0.83" in Albuquerque. Back to 1892, the record was 0.06" for the date. June is now the wettest here since 1996, with 1.40", and the month only half over. I've been talking about a wet June since January, so pleased to see it. My replication method (mimicking Jul-Dec observations by blending historical years in my Feb 10 forecast for Spring) implied 1.88 inches for June. That no longer looks crazy! https://t.co/85VPbQq1bD

Also noted that extremely heavy rain in June is more likely in the SW after a very dry NDJ period.

 

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3 hours ago, Chinook said:

with sufficient CAPE and shear for supercells, these cells are at least trying to be supercells and dropping 1" hail in a few spots

XOc4ZS6.png

Those storms were pretty legit.  1-1.5 inch hail where I live (Broomfield) around 8:30 MT - a couple hours after your post.

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yeah - crazy afternoon. We had racquetballs at our house and there were baseballs just a couple miles east and west. I posted in the severe discussion a while ago. One thing that's weird is that all the storms are not hitting any of the official reporting stations, so it looks as though there's nothing going on if that's all you look at.

I imagine someone has worked out the kinetic energy of a 3" hailstone falling at terminal velocity, and I imagine it's pretty scary when you compare that with what it takes to break a windshield, a skylight, or a skull.... ouch.

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