ValpoVike Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Summer seems to be here, and right on time. What a great weekend of weather we have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 27, 2018 Author Share Posted May 27, 2018 There have been some tornado warnings in Wyoming. This one apparently produced a tornado in the Laramie Range foothills near Vedawoo hiking and climbing area. Also in here you can see that traffic on I-80, uphill from Cheyenne, helps reflect the radar extremely well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 Possibly one of the most textbook signatures I've ever seen. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 For anyone who remembers, my PDO Nov-Apr forecast method, blending October Nino 1.2 readings prior to winter with the PDO base state in Mar-Aug prior to winter ended up working pretty well at predicting the PDO for this past Nov-Apr. I tested it in three ways: Using anomalies against the most recent 30 years, against 1951-2010 means, and by actual SSTs, not anomalies. Run away winner was by SSTs, I dug this out from last October and filled in the final PDO value for Nov-Apr (+0.30). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Looks like things may be converging north of Denver from Longmont up through Greeley and Fort Collins in an hour and a half or so... should be interesting. Edit: farther northeast and quicker than I thought... severe storm NE of Greeley went from nothing to severe in 25 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 28, 2018 Author Share Posted May 28, 2018 The storms developed over Loveland and Fort Collins quickly, but it isn't severe. The mesoscale models showed this sort of thing, so it's not too much of a surprise. Maybe winds of 30mph or more. And, for what it's worth, my GRLevel3 program is not getting any new information from the NWS data servers. The data is quite old. Thankfully, rest of the internet seems to have the data up to the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 28, 2018 Author Share Posted May 28, 2018 Four tornado warnings. This could be almost as interesting as Tropical Storm Alberto. 5 preliminary tornado reports east of Limon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 An 80-miles long wall of tornadoes, eh? Is that the biggest single tor warn ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 31, 2018 Author Share Posted May 31, 2018 GOES-17 will be the new satellite to become GOES-W over the Pacific Ocean. Right now, it appears to be in the testing phase at a central orbit (90 deg. West) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 It's nice to get a storm picture like this, with yellow/orange light near sunset. These storms are in northern Weld County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 Here's a terrific picture of a tornado in the Laramie plain area, 7100 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 I found some bolts from a small storm near Loveland. Perfect setting to get a view of this storm from 10-20 miles away. I did this with a normal digital camera and I played it on Windows media player. I slowed down the play speed and stopped it at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 ^^ Looks pretty bright. Expecting a pretty active monsoon for much of the region. Already some extensive heavy rain earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Laramie tornado pic is a great example of the RFD clear slot coming in. Right up into the wall cloud a horseshoe shape forms. Plus broken skies are behind it. Inflow balances perfectly, and the result is a gorgeous tornado. Apparently I should have flown to CYS this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 15 hours ago, Chinook said: Here's a terrific picture of a tornado in the Laramie plain area, 7100 ft One of the most photogenic tornados I've seen. LP supercell, in an area with great visibility. Also it has a symmetric barbell shape instead of a cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 The Midwest has been something like +7.5F for these two weeks. My area has been about +7 to +9 degrees F this week. Denver was 12.3 degrees above normal from Sunday to Saturday. Fort Collins tied a record high of 95 on Tuesday. This area typically doesn't get much 95's before June 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Blech. And this past hour, an 87 degree F dewpoint spread (95/8) at Buckley AFB, not far from where I work. Kind of surprised we didn't hit 100 this weekend at one of the metro measuring stations, though the earliest 100 F on record at DEN was 6/11 just a few years ago. Hope the monsoon pans out this year. With less western ridging lately, looks a bit more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 The drought in the Dakota and TX Panhandle from last Fall implied a pretty hot start to Summer in the Plains to me, the high that prevented precipitation for five months in Amarillo wasn't just going to pack up its bags and leave. I will say, once AZ & NM start getting wet consistently, which should happen over the next ten days, the real core of the heat will get crippled to some extent. The remnant moisture from the storms in the E. Pac should help with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2018 Author Share Posted June 12, 2018 Sunset over the mountains, 6/11. Some reddish tint to the sky may be related to fires over Colorado, Utah, and a new fire that is 35 mi southwest of Laramie WY. I saw the smoke plume of that fire today, as it is only 60-65 miles away. One thing is for sure. I never got a good picture of sunset over the mountains when I lived in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2018 Author Share Posted June 14, 2018 The weather disturbance associated with Tropical Storm Bud will be moving through the Southwest. There are already a few showers and thunderstorms in AZ and NM right now. This could be fairly helpful for the Southwest, with 1/2" to 1" of rain, Maybe this will help the firefighters contain the 416 Fire near Durango CO. Farther out, there could be some heavier rains in Colorado. People around here are mentioning the smoke cloud from the expanding Badger Creek fire (southwest of Laramie, WY). I saw some of that at sunset last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 Today has seen 0.83" in Albuquerque. Back to 1892, the record was 0.06" for the date. June is now the wettest here since 1996, with 1.40", and the month only half over. I've been talking about a wet June since January, so pleased to see it. My replication method (mimicking Jul-Dec observations by blending historical years in my Feb 10 forecast for Spring) implied 1.88 inches for June. That no longer looks crazy! https://t.co/85VPbQq1bD Also noted that extremely heavy rain in June is more likely in the SW after a very dry NDJ period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 with sufficient CAPE and shear for supercells, these cells are at least trying to be supercells and dropping 1" hail in a few spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganLion Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 3 hours ago, Chinook said: with sufficient CAPE and shear for supercells, these cells are at least trying to be supercells and dropping 1" hail in a few spots Those storms were pretty legit. 1-1.5 inch hail where I live (Broomfield) around 8:30 MT - a couple hours after your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 storm total rainfall from KFTG, and the rain is still going near I-76 at 10:45PM. I got a picture of mammatus clouds to the south. I will post it tomorrow. Hail reports were numerous between Boulder and Brighton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 Weather spotters reported a tornado on this storm, several miles outside of DIA. Meanwhile, I was looking to the sky for a different storm near me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 Pretty cool, I'd put a watch there too. It's not going to develop though. Global warming, that's why. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northrockies_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 radar shows 73 dbz on a severe-warned storm near Wellington/north Weld County. I watched the low, dark clouds of this storm from a distance of 5+ miles as it hit Wellington with hail. That's 10 miles north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 yeah - crazy afternoon. We had racquetballs at our house and there were baseballs just a couple miles east and west. I posted in the severe discussion a while ago. One thing that's weird is that all the storms are not hitting any of the official reporting stations, so it looks as though there's nothing going on if that's all you look at. I imagine someone has worked out the kinetic energy of a 3" hailstone falling at terminal velocity, and I imagine it's pretty scary when you compare that with what it takes to break a windshield, a skylight, or a skull.... ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 My place just had light rain and, get this -- 1" to 1.5" hail reported about 2 miles away in Fort Collins!! So, I was at the edge of the hail core, and I didn't even hear loud thunder or a respectable rumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 another possible tornado near or north of Limon, CO. The SRV-1.5 screen may be better velocity data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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