Chinook Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 Here is the new thread for the summer. Notable things to talk about recently here: High wind gusts on 4/11, 4/12, 4/13, 4/14, and 4/17, with 60mph-80mph in and near the foothills on 4/17 0.55" of rain/snow on 4/21 and 4/22 brief thunder and 70 degrees on Monday 4/23 light snow and 40 degrees on Tuesday 4/24. The radar looked like lake-effect snow, but the snow rate really wasn't too special. Some cool days scattered throughout April. It's likely that our metro areas have been -1.0F to -2.0F for the month. Today: first 82 degree day of the year. Upcoming: the 18z GFS says 2" of rain for Larimer County to southern Wyoming in the next 5 days! I might have to get out an umbrella or something. Once again, the trend seems to be north of Denver. The Euro has 0.8" to 1.0" generally in NE Colorado. So maybe some more significant accumulating snow above 8000 ft this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 Looking like a few inches here in Conifer this week. With any luck this will be our last accumulating snowfall of the season and we can roll into a summertime pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 15 hours ago, ConiferMtnMan said: Looking like a few inches here in Conifer this week. With any luck this will be our last accumulating snowfall of the season and we can roll into a summertime pattern. Yesterday I put my Jeep soft top on, so we are now guaranteed to delay the transition to a summertime pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 Remember the crazy late April and mid-May storms last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Remember the crazy late April and mid-May storms last year? Yes, sure do. On May 18th and May 19th we received ~40" of heavy wet snow. By end of day on May 20th it was ALL gone on south facing slopes except for spots in the shade under trees. I have never seen so much snow melt so quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 1, 2018 Author Share Posted May 1, 2018 Yeah, my place even got 7.5" of snow. Lookie here, 50 - 60dBz for the first time this year. This developed just after passing Fort Collins as a weak thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 At 4:15pm I had snow, thunder, and 55 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Its probably soft hail or graupel. The Canadian has a super torch for May nationally, trended much warmer from its last update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 I know graupel and hail. These were 100 percent wet flakes as the storm moved off the Divide. It was bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Seems to be a precip forcefield today around the Denver Metro. Rain everywhere except within the circle of 470 and the NW beltway. Hopefully that will fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Nice and cool today but I suspect we'll hit 90F here much earlier than last year. Historically super dry Nov-Apr periods in the SW are followed by major rains in June, and the Canadian has that kind of look for June, but we've had four ~cold Mays in a row here, its due to flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 In the last storm, which was May 1st - 4th, my area got 2.33" of rain, and we had temps in the 40's on May 2nd. Upcoming in about 5 days -- there should be a trough in Utah and Nevada, supporting some (perhaps more than 1) periods of rain in northern Colorado. We may have one or more days with a slight risk for severe weather. The cold front on Friday may bring in enough moisture so we get 50-52 dew points on the plains, and CAPE to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Feb-Apr global SSTs kind of look like a blend of Feb-Apr 1968, 2006, 2014, 2015. Will be interesting to see if that holds up going into Summer. 1968 & 2014 took a while to develop into El Ninos. You have a warm Pacific, similar Atlantic, similar Indian, years after warm/dry Western winters. Not great for solar, so maybe I could blend in 1934 and 1996 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2018 Author Share Posted May 11, 2018 This is the farthest west tornado this year that hasn't occurred in either Idaho or California. this is the Nebraska panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Since 1931-32, this past Nov-Apr (0.72") was third driest in Albuquerque. Here is a look at the years w/in 0.3" of the observed dryness this past Nov-Apr. 2005-06: 0.41" in Nov-Apr --> 1.14" Jun 2006 1995-96: 0.58" in Nov-Apr --> 2.86" June 1996 1966-67: 0.80" in Nov-Apr --> 1.71" June 1967 2012-13: 0.83" in Nov-Apr --> 0.02" June 2013 1954-55: 0.87" in Nov-Apr --> 0.33" June 1955 1946-47: 0.88" in Nov-Apr --> 0.23" June 1947 1932-33: 0.94" in Nov-Apr --> 3.81" June 1933 (one of our top-ever rain months) Fair number of these years have hot/cold east/west or vice versa orientations in winter and followed major Gulf Coast hurricane seasons interestingly enough. Mean is 1.44". We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Today looks like it may be the first threat of severe weather for the northern portion of the urban corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Ended up going with a fairly cool Summer for the US overall, though June will be fairly warm. Final Summer analogs: 1963, 1968, 1968, 1972, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2009, 2014. I was surprised at how similar 1968 and 1972 look to what the Canadian is showing for JJA ocean temperature anomalies. Down here, there seem to be two windows for rain in June: June 10-13, and June 22-28, which is interesting since the latter period is usually the hottest week of the year, often over 100F on multiple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 0.75" hail reported in west Denver. Maybe some more heavy rain and hail in downtown before this is all over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 possibly large hail and rotation developing near the Palmer Divide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 A pretty little downdraft with a storm around 4pm today. View is of Signal Mountain in the far background, near the divide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 We had some hail last night with overnight temps right around freezing. Ground was white with hail in some places on the drive in to work this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 16, 2018 Share Posted May 16, 2018 Go go CFS. My Summer forecast did have a wet June, so it is nice to see continued model support for that. https://t.co/bxM368tWpU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2018 Author Share Posted May 17, 2018 All models have quite a bit of convection and total rainfall in northeast Colorado and Nebraska coming up in the next 4 days. Things may get interesting around here. My place has already gotten a fair amount of rain this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2018 Author Share Posted May 17, 2018 For a couple of hours, my area had 56-57 dew points, leading to this analyzed 4000 J/kg over Larimer County low mountains and Cheyenne. Even Reed Timmer impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 18, 2018 Author Share Posted May 18, 2018 NWS issued a flash flood warning for Boulder (including their own office), as 1.5" of rain has fallen in 1 hour. It could be headed toward me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20, 2018 Author Share Posted May 20, 2018 Areas of NE Colorado got 0.3" to 4.5" of rain within the last week. Unfortunately, it is still pretty much a drought for the south and west portions of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 I know... on Friday my flight from the East Coast took a very circuitous route down over NM and west almost as far as Durango to avoid a wall of t-storms (the yellows and reds on your precip map) and get to DEN, and it was amazing how little snow remains in the northern NM mountains and the San Juans. Looks like mid July snow-wise, and it isn't green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 We've had two 50+ snow/rain free streaks since mid-October here - but the second one ended today. BTW, the Atlantic is absolutely frigid all of the sudden. Might be the coldest May AMO since the warm phase began in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 22, 2018 Author Share Posted May 22, 2018 We have had some dew points up above 50 today. this potentially severe storm is tracking N to NNW toward Loveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 My area got slammed with hail for about 1/2 hour from 6:00 to 6:30. Thankfully, it was smaller hail. The hail depth was 2". There may have been 1.5" of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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