Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 April is just about over and it's time to stark tracking the chance for our first 90 degree day. Here's to a hot May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Well done on starting the thread, George BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 13 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: April is just about over and it's time to stark tracking the chance for our first 90 degree day. Here's to a hot May. It is time to start tracking our first 90 degree day, But here's to a SEASONAL May. July and August will be plenty hot. No need to rush the sufferings of us poor folk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 If it’s going to be hotter than Satan’s bumhole, I at least want some SVR to go with it. I really don’t want to relive summer 2010 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 20 hours ago, mattie g said: Well done on starting the thread, George BM. Thanks, Mattie! But actually, Eskimo Joe started it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 3 hours ago, George BM said: Thanks, Mattie! But actually, Eskimo Joe started it. That was the joke.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Here's to hoping for a Nino (even if rare!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Look at this craziness. These are new extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 April 20-May 15 +NAO will be the strongest 25-day highest since Nov-Dec 2015. I think this proves that the March 2018 -NAO / Stratosphere warming (MJO Phase 6 record) was artificial, on the heels of my letter to NOAA, and the climate in general is that controlled. DC record 500mb heights (3rd highest all time this early in the season (early May 586-587dm coming up)) same as record 500mb late Feb, just a split from general period Feb-May etc. Or climate is first in the midst of human chaos.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Looks like a hideous ridge will be building up mid month. I couldn’t believe what I saw when I looked at the long range GFS. Mid 90s up into central Maine, possibly 100 in DC. Congrats Subtropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 59 minutes ago, Fozz said: Looks like a hideous ridge will be building up mid month. I couldn’t believe what I saw when I looked at the long range GFS. Mid 90s up into central Maine, possibly 100 in DC. Congrats Subtropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 50 minutes ago, Cobalt said: You knew the cool April would not go unanswered by mother nature. That is why I couldn't understand why there were a few folks complaining about the "cool" spring weather. We ALWAYS get our heat. Its one of the few things you can bank on for the MA. But we had a good run of cool weather so its time I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: You knew the cool April would not go unanswered by mother nature. That is why I couldn't understand why there were a few folks complaining about the "cool" spring weather. We ALWAYS get our heat. Its one of the few things you can bank on for the MA. But we had a good run of cool weather so its time I guess. Yeah, I agree with you. Maybe we use all of our heat up in the summer? Like Fozz said in the banter thread, 1995 and 2002 were hot summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: If this ends up being the October 2011 of heat waves, I’ll take it. Otherwise we could be in for a very long, hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Cobalt said: ****. ****. ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Was the Euro this insane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 6 hours ago, Fozz said: If this ends up being the October 2011 of heat waves, I’ll take it. Otherwise we could be in for a very long, hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 So this, today, was probably the deepest/largest 500mb vortex over Greenland for May on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 20 hours ago, BristowWx said: You knew the cool April would not go unanswered by mother nature. That is why I couldn't understand why there were a few folks complaining about the "cool" spring weather. We ALWAYS get our heat. Its one of the few things you can bank on for the MA. But we had a good run of cool weather so its time I guess. I was complaining. What I would love is a very warm April, like +10 departure, a normal May, and a -2 or -4 June. That would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Agreed. Some people on here (maybe even a silent majority) I think just like warmth and seasonal temps in the spring. So much of the long range threads and discussion are spent chasing extremes, that mentioning that seasonal would be okay gets cast as complaining. In any event, no thanks to huge early heat, the same as no thanks to lingering cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 warm one, probably above average Summer http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/t7loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: warm one, probably above average Summer http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/t7loop.html Notice how all the members have the OK/TX panhandle torching like mad. Probably going to be a big drought out there this summer. We might benefit from some ring of fire or a TC undercutting the ridge and sweeping up into VA/NC. Either way my tomatoes will rejoin this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Here's to hoping this summer is the 2002 to our 2003 Obviously, long range nino predictions such, but here's to hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 49 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Here's to hoping this summer is the 2002 to our 2003 Obviously, long range nino predictions such, but here's to hoping. Tropical weenies won't be happy to see the Carribean drought potential... but those that live down there will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 6 hours ago, Cobalt said: Here's to hoping this summer is the 2002 to our 2003 Obviously, long range nino predictions such, but here's to hoping. You've probably heard us talk about the spring barrier period for long range enso stuff but for those who haven't, spring is a notoriously terrible time for long range models to predict next season's enso conditions. Once we get into July, seasonal guidance gets much better at predicting trends and even then...lol. Take a look at April 17's plumes and verification. July got the trend right but the lead is still too long for magnitude. My total WAG is neutral and if it is, just hope for a +PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You've probably heard us talk about the spring barrier period for long range enso stuff but for those who haven't, spring is a notoriously terrible time for long range models to predict next season's enso conditions. Once we get into July, seasonal guidance gets much better at predicting trends and even then...lol. Take a look at April 17's plumes and verification. July got the trend right but the lead is still too long for magnitude. My total WAG is neutral and if it is, just hope for a +PDO. Yes, I see what you mean. Seems like Nino 3.4 hasn't been too eager to rise to neutral consistency yet. We play the waiting game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 So-called rain chances later this week, It'll warm up, get plenty humid, pollen will be choking me to death but the Infamous Dale City rain hole will continue unabated. Of course the mountains got to enjoy showers from the trough, but we are high and dry with sunny skies and highs in the low 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Prospects of El Nino are fading... tendency to have +heights in the arctic circle are coming back. If it holds... 2015 2014 Favors a lot of recurving tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Looks like a stronger El Nino is developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 These have been some wicked +NAO's. I am talking about this super deep vortex on the south tip of Greenland. What's going on there, less arctic ice? I don't think I ever saw this 2003-2010, now it's happened 3 times. Feb 20...1 May 3...2 May 15...3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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