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Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3


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Hard to tell given its proximity to the radar. But the supercell just south of KUEX appears to be ramping up as well.

EDIT: Also looks some development is taking place further south into Clark Co. Kansas.

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The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern York County in east central Nebraska...
  Northeastern Hamilton County in south central Nebraska...

* Until 515 PM CDT

* At 439 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Marquette, or
  15 miles east of Grand Island, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* The tornado will be near...
  Marquette around 450 PM CDT. 
  Hordville around 505 PM CDT. 

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Initiation as far south as Lipscomb County, TX with agitated cu from south of DDC into the far eastern portion of the Texas panhandle. Still uncertain if cells this far south will have much longevity, but if they do, the environment will rapidly improve by 23-00z.

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0307
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas...Southeast
   Nebraska...Southwest Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...

   Valid 012200Z - 020000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat across southeastern Nebraska and
   north-central Kansas is expected to increase over the next couple of
   hours. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger
   storms as the activity move eastward across tornado watch 59 through
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
   southeastward across south-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas.  A
   dryline extends southward from the front across west-central Kansas.
   A narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is present ahead
   of the dryline from north-central Oklahoma into north-central Kansas
   where surface dewpoints are generally in the lower to mid 60s F.
   This combined with surface heating has resulted in moderate
   instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg.

   Radar imagery shows a line of semi-discrete storms ongoing along the
   western edge of moderate instability from near Hastings, NE to just
   east of Dodge City, KS. The cells within the line will continue to
   move eastward into stronger instability and should gradually
   intensify. Due to the instability, steep mid-level lapse rates of
   8.5 to 9.0 C/km and strong deep-layer shear evident on the Hastings
   WSR-88D VWP, hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
   possible with the stronger supercells. In addition, a 40 to 50 kt
   low-level jet is forecast to rapidly strengthen across central and
   eastern Kansas into southeast Nebraska early this evening. For this
   reason, low-level shear will become increasingly favorable for
   tornadoes. 0-3 km storm-relative helicities are forecast to increase
   into the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range suggesting that a strong tornado or
   two will be possible as well.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/01/2018
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3 minutes ago, weunice said:

Storm south of Grand Island is producing per warning (public report)

That one had a really small area of velocity difference on SRV1/SRV2 near Doniphan, at the edge of an RFD.

I think I've stopped near there to get gas on my I-80 road trips.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA  
542 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
  NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
  
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT  
  
* AT 541 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BEND,  
  OR 30 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.   
  
  HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF HAIL UP TO   
           THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.   
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS,   
           SIDING, AND VEHICLES.   
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  FREMONT, NORTH BEND, HOOPER, CEDAR BLUFFS, NICKERSON, INGLEWOOD,  
  MORSE BLUFF, WINSLOW, CAMP EAGLE, CAMP CEDARS AND FREMONT LAKES  
  STATE RECREATION AREA.  

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