WhiteoutWX Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: I for one am shocked to see Jeff downcasting a setup. Shocked I tell you. He has some legitimate points. I’m not sure initiation will be super early though so some of those concerns may not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 Why are these TX supercells splitting? No directional shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: He has some legitimate points. I’m not sure initiation will be super early though so some of those concerns may not matter. He usually does, he's solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 If the vertical profile from Lubbock is fairly representative of the environment, hodographs are pretty small and 'Z' shaped at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Today was done in by: Weak low-level shear (see hodograph above) High LCLs Sizable T/Td spreads Modest deep layer shear Rapidly increasing CINH before the LLJ ramped up On to tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Need to add Thursday to this thread. That is a heck of a 500 mb jet streak ejecting there, deep layer shear will be no problem. Would think storm motions will be quite fast and there are some questions as to the degree of low level backing with the surface low orientation/etc, along with questions about ongoing convection from Wednesday and the orientation of the flow to the front/dryline. With that said, I would never sleep on a low amplitude trough with an 80+ kt mid level jet streak ejecting in May with plenty of low level moisture hanging around. The 15z SREF was already pretty gung ho on it 80+ hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 I'm not really sure why the SPC did not issue a 15% contour for Thursday yet. I think they'll need at least a slight or enhanced outlook for E KS and W MO Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Yep. I totally agree about Thursday. I think there was enough confidence this morning to warrant a 15% for Thursday. I also acknowledge that it's a tougher nut to crack for various reasons including the prolific ongoing overnight convection from Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 the 00z NAM wasn't exactly encouraging for any of the days really. Picked up and moved the TP at least 50 miles south tomorrow whilst being less impressive overall. Surface low develops too late wednesday, leading to lackluster low level shear and Thursday remained more or less the same. I was never optimistic for wednesday, and it's seeming like that'll probably end up being the right call. The only model left showing a more robust event on Wednesday is the Euro, do with that as you will. I am more optimistic about tomorrow though, despite the 00z NAM. Thinking the triple point will prove to be a nice play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: the 00z NAM wasn't exactly encouraging for any of the days really. Picked up and moved the TP at least 50 miles south tomorrow whilst being less impressive overall. Surface low develops too late wednesday, leading to lackluster low level shear and Thursday remained more or less the same. I was never optimistic for wednesday, and it's seeming like that'll probably end up being the right call. The only model left showing a more robust event on Wednesday is the Euro, do with that as you will. I am more optimistic about tomorrow though, despite the 00z NAM. Thinking the triple point will prove to be a nice play. Why are we still putting so much faith in a model that has failed us time and time again? Euro isn't the only model with a robust threat on Wednesday, GFS still has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Why are we still putting so much faith in a model that has failed us time and time again? Euro isn't the only model with a robust threat on Wednesday, GFS still has one. NAM has been doing well this season, and looks to have done well today as well. It is irresponsible to criticize and downplay a model just because it isn't showing the super outbreak that you want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: NAM has been doing well this season, and looks to have done well today as well. It is irresponsible to criticize and downplay a model just because it isn't showing the super outbreak that you want it to. But it's ok for you to ignore the models that are more aggressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, MUWX said: But it's ok for you to ignore the models that are more aggressive? Well the GFS doesn't look that good to me; uncapped early on with mediocre wind profiles being the primary issues on it. I'm not seeing anything that would inhibit convective development before the wind profiles can really mature. If this is the case, then everything will be over and done with before the wind profiles really show up, at least on the GFS. We saw this on 5/18 last year. Jeff Duda and I are currently on the same page in regards to this it seems. The euro does not have this issue, as the profiles it has earlier in the day are workable and only improve towards 00z, and it stands alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Lol @ you bickering weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 2 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: NAM has been doing well this season, and looks to have done well today as well. It is irresponsible to criticize and downplay a model just because it isn't showing the super outbreak that you want it to. All I really have to say on this is, Euro > NAM. We both know this. I don't "want" it to show a super outbreak. I've tried to be fairly measured with everything. I've, and others, have literally given reasons to be weary of the NAM. Just because you want to go out on a limb and take a stand on good ole uncle NAM doesn't give you the right to play holier than thou in the thread over forecast/model preference. Believe I was actually the first person to mention concerns about storms being too messy/junky if they fire too early before wind profiles improve anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 SPC (rightfully) maintains an ENH risk for Wednesday on the 06Z D2 outlook. I am becoming increasingly less enthusiastic about the tornado threat given the mentioned concerns over initiation/mode and convective overturning before wind profiles get better in the evening. As of now, west-central OK easily has the best tornado potential on Wednesday. My previous thoughts about earlier storms in the northern part of the risk area messing things up thermodynamically up there while the southern part remains more prestine for scattered evening supercellular development still seems relatively on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 ...man we really need an event to verify for the collective psyche of this place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 On 4/29/2018 at 3:24 PM, Chicago Storm said: Mon is DOA and Tue/Thur are more conditional. Only really good day to get excited about is Wed. Then add in the many other outlets for discussion, such as FB and Twitter... As far as the lack of discussion I'm also wondering where it all is, I haven't seen much comparable content on twitter yet. 7 minutes ago, andyhb said: ...man we really need an event to verify for the collective psyche of this place... When was the last legitimate tornado outbreak in the Plains? I don't know and I sure hope the answer isn't as long ago as that special one in mid April 2012. If it is, wow. Its now May and it appears OK didn't have any tornadoes yet so there's a milestone. How astounding would it be if there still aren't any in OK this week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Thread is eerily quiet for an event. Plus the SPC left the door open for moderate risk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 06Z HRRR shows a fairly volatile setup across Central Kansas by the late afternoon and early evening. It fires up a line of pearls from southern Nebraska to within about 40 miles of Oklahoma. I have concerns over LCL heights during the 4-5PM timeframe with dewpoint spreads approaching 20 degrees in some spots, especially closer/north of I-70. I'm also a little leery of the HRRR over-doing dews a tad bit after yesterday. That said, it looks like we should be rocking and rolling by 6 PM with impressive low-level shear and plenty of instability. Will be leaving OUN around 11 AM with an initial target zone of Great Bend. Going to likely play on any southern storms that manage to fire and hopefully avoid the mega chaser hoards closer to Interstate 70 and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 2 hours ago, Crazieman said: Thread is eerily quiet for an event. Plus the SPC left the door open for moderate risk today. Think it's remarkable with all the Wed/Thurs talk that today might end up being The Day for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Flew into OKC last night. My guess is that we’ll have to target somewhere in the La Crosse to Greensburg corridor to start today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Flew into OKC last night. My guess is that we’ll have to target somewhere in the La Crosse to Greensburg corridor to start today. . holla at me if you see a greyish corolla out there. we can take pics for alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 5 hours ago, Torchageddon said: As far as the lack of discussion I'm also wondering where it all is, I haven't seen much comparable content on twitter yet. When was the last legitimate tornado outbreak in the Plains? I don't know and I sure hope the answer isn't as long ago as that special one in mid April 2012. If it is, wow. Its now May and it appears OK didn't have any tornadoes yet so there's a milestone. How astounding would it be if there still aren't any in OK this week . I'd say so, and that one was still tempered somewhat by the late trough arrival and storms going for a long time before becoming tornadic. The late May 2013 events were all rather localized, with only one or two significant tornadoes per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 5/6/15 was a fairly widespread event across the Plains from Texas to Nebraska. Not a high-end event, but noteworthy given the overall lack of Plains outbreaks over the past few years. Interestingly enough, this event shows up in analogs for today. Synoptically, that event had more large scale forcing. Also, there was richer boundary layer moisture in place with cap erosion as far south as North Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 5 hours ago, Torchageddon said: As far as the lack of discussion I'm also wondering where it all is, I haven't seen much comparable content on twitter yet. When was the last legitimate tornado outbreak in the Plains? I don't know and I sure hope the answer isn't as long ago as that special one in mid April 2012. If it is, wow. Its now May and it appears OK didn't have any tornadoes yet so there's a milestone. How astounding would it be if there still aren't any in OK this week . I'd say May 6 2015 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Quincy said: 5/6/15 was a fairly widespread event across the Plains from Texas to Nebraska. Not a high-end event, but noteworthy given the overall lack of Plains outbreaks over the past few years. Interestingly enough, this event shows up in analogs for today. Synoptically, that event had more large scale forcing. Also, there was richer boundary layer moisture in place with cap erosion as far south as North Texas. I forgot about that one, probably because it wasn't particularly memorable in terms of tornado images. Bridge Creek II was rain-wrapped and grungy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I forgot about that one, probably because it wasn't particularly memorable in terms of tornado images. Bridge Creek II was rain-wrapped and grungy. Not to derail this thread too much, but the tornado near Mount Hope/Halstead that day had some moments. I wasn't able to get too close until the end, but anyway: http://www.quincyvagell.com/2015/05/07/mount-hope-halstead-tornado/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 The 3Z and 9Z SREF runs continue to suggest that there is better overlap of tornado ingredients on Thursday than on Wednesday. That's a pretty respectable mid level jet streak approaching the KS/MO border on Thursday. But, will the low level jet veer too much to the east too soon? Maybe. In terms of forecasting for chasing I can't say I'm super impressed with the setup on either day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 12Z NAM is pretty blah on tomorrow. Breaks out a squal line early morning thurs, which could significantly impact svr threat Thurs afternoon. Atmosphere probably needs more time to recover from a major line like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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