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Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3


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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
313 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  CENTRAL PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT  
  
* AT 312 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF DILLWYN TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF ST.  
  JOHN TO 4 MILES NORTH OF IUKA TO COATS, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.   
  
  HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.   
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. HOMES AND   
           BUSINESSES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE.   
           EXPECT EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.   
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  PRATT, ST. JOHN, IUKA, SAWYER AND COATS.   
  
TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED 90 MPH WIND 11 MILES WEST OF PRATT AT 3:10   
PM.  

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39 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

New post; Apparently "abusive" users indicates that those 6 IPs were repeatedly downloading data from NCEP servers.

Well that would explain the severe lag of GR Level 3 data, but it has still not gone back to normal. In fact, I now have no data at all.

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6 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
313 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  CENTRAL PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT  
  
* AT 312 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF DILLWYN TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF ST.  
  JOHN TO 4 MILES NORTH OF IUKA TO COATS, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.   
  
  HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.   
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. HOMES AND   
           BUSINESSES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE.   
           EXPECT EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.   
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  PRATT, ST. JOHN, IUKA, SAWYER AND COATS.   
  
TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED 90 MPH WIND 11 MILES WEST OF PRATT AT 3:10   
PM.  

Woah... 90 mph winds and confirmed by spotters... 

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Mesoscale Discussion 0317
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles and northwest TX into
   western OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

   Valid 022024Z - 022300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

   SUMMARY...Very large hail and an increasing threat for storms to
   become tornadic exists across the eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
   into northwest Texas and western Oklahoma into the early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-afternoon mosaic radar imagery indicated ongoing
   discrete storm development near and east of a dryline which extended
   south through far eastern TX Panhandle from an area of low pressure
   in far northwest OK.  These storms will continue to track to the
   east-northeast into western OK this afternoon, with additional storm
   development likely in northwest TX in the southwest part of WW 62. 
   The CAPE/shear parameter space east of the dryline has become very
   conducive for storms to mature into supercells with the potential
   for tornadoes and very large hail.  Special NSSL sounding at Elk
   City, OK at 1827Z indicated very strong instability (surface-based
   CAPE of 4000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km).  In
   addition to strong effective bulk shear expected to remain oriented
   across the initiating boundary for discrete storms, the NSSL
   sounding showed effective inflow shear of 28 kt, with low-level
   hodograph curvature to support rotating updrafts.

   ..Peters.. 05/02/2018
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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY...
    
At 415 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 4 miles northeast of 
Minneapolis, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Ottawa County.

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTY...
    
At 443 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Lone Wolf, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Hobart, Lone Wolf and eastern Altus-Lugert Lake.

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15 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

That Kiowa County Lone Wolf OK cell is growing into a dominant storm and will certainly be one to watch as it moves ne.

At its current pace (~25mph to the ENE) it would reach the OKC metro at a very bad time... Around ~8pm, just in time for the LLJ to really start cranking. If it remains well organized and discrete, this cell would certainly have the capability of producing significant tornadoes.

18z NAM for near OKC by 00z...2018050218_NAM_006_35.86,-97.39_severe_m

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