Indystorm Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Upper 60 dew points well into northern OK and southern border of KS even at this early hour. Moisture certainly will not be a problem today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Plan of the Day: First target is north side of DL bulge in west-central OK. Second target is east of TP in southern Kansas. I would eat lunch in Woodward thanks to roads in six directions out of town. Keep in mind a few lights in the center of town. DL Bulge (north side of it): 12Z CAMs are more bullish with DL convection. DL bulges in the afternoon but stops/retreats which should not be a problem. Gravity wave(s) made it into southern Oklahoma (VIS 15Z-ish); and, they count as boundaries to intersect the DL. Note after 00Z model helicity blows up in southwest OK but I believe it is feedback. I still lean toward I-40 north. Kansas TP (just east of it): Coldwater to Medicine Lodge may offer another target. 12Z CAMs are less messy, but still a lot of cells. Keep in mind reality could over or under perform CAMs. Stationary front should stall with low press in southwest Kansas. Might be the outflow between US-54 and US-160 on VIS as I type. If so, these targets are near equals. Conclusion: DL bulge is slightly favored today thanks to deeper moisture than on Tue. East of TP is a legit if not equal second target. Maybe spread the crowd? Also I'd go 15% hatched TOR down to I-40, which is MDT for TOR. Safe chasing and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 To sum up yesterday’s chase: South.Today we started in McPherson, KS...but we’re racing south to get into NW/W Oklahoma. I liked yesterday better overall, but we’ll see how today goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Tornado watch coming soon for TX panhandle/W OK and S Kansas. Looks like concerns about early initiation were valid http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0313.html SUMMARY...Development of additional thunderstorms is expected between 17-19Z across portions of the Texas Panhandle into the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle into southwest and south-central Kansas. Severe storms will be likely by early afternoon, with all severe hazards possible, including very large hail and a tornado threat. DISCUSSION...Trends in morning surface analyses and visible satellite imagery showed a quasistationary boundary extending from extreme southeast NE to southwest KS into the OK Panhandle (east of KGUY) to far northern TX Panhandle. In KS this boundary was analyzed at 15Z to the south of KCNK and south of KGBD. Although surface heating, given breaks in high-level clouds, is resulting in mixing, persistent southerly low-level winds are compensating to maintain surface dew points in the middle-upper 60s from the eastern TX Panhandle into western and central OK to southern and eastern KS. Moisture return has also spread farther westward this morning into more of the TX Panhandle. This moisture combined with diabatic heating will further weaken inhibition, resulting very strong instability (MUCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon. Recent lightning data, satellite and radar imagery showed a storm had developed near the intersection of the quasistationary boundary and dry line in Hansford County TX (extreme northern TX Panhandle). A 70-75 kt southwesterly 500-mb jet accompanying a shortwave trough will move through the southern High Plains early this afternoon and proceed downstream into western OK to central KS by late afternoon. Forcing for ascent attendant to this trough and exit region of the 500-mb jet are expected to reach western portions of the discussion area between 17-19Z supporting additional storm development into the afternoon. This scenario is suggested by the last several runs of the operational HRRR and the 12Z HREF. These initial storms will continue to form from the northern TX Panhandle to part of southwest and adjacent south-central KS where low-level convergence is the strongest, given strengthening low-level winds into the quasistationary boundary. Storms will also develop equatorward along and east of the dryline, as it mixes eastward this afternoon into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles, and into western OK. The available MUCAPE and increasing effective bulk shear will be favorable for supercells producing tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. Storms that develop along the dryline and into western OK will have a greater likelihood to be discrete, given shear vectors crossing the initiation boundary. Shear vectors in vicinity of the boundary in KS may tend to be more parallel resulting in bows with embedded supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Just taking a look at mesoanalysis right now and it looks to me like the NAM was shunting the LLJ significantly too far E through the day today given I'm seeing 30-40 kts at 850 mb over most of W OK. This should portend better low level shear for storms that do go up early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 First watch of the day up...in Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: First watch of the day up...in Kansas 70/60 TOR PROBS on the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of A large part of Kansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...Numerous to widespread severe storms will develop from southwest into central and northeast Kansas this afternoon. Damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, andyhb said: Just taking a look at mesoanalysis right now and it looks to me like the NAM was shunting the LLJ significantly too far E through the day today given I'm seeing 30-40 kts at 850 mb over most of W OK. This should portend better low level shear for storms that do go up early. Based on mesoanalysis, low-level shear is a bit better than earlier progs suggested it would be. 15-20+ knots of 0-1km shear coupled with relatively low LCLs from the eastern portion of the Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma would support at least some tornado threat early on, especially given the degree of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 STW for the Beaver county storm in OK has hail to tennis ball size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Anyone else not getting GR Level 3 data, or only very sporadically? DDC has only loaded the 1751Z SRV, not even the reflectivity. Works on RadarScope on my phone though. Edit: As I typed that, finally loaded the 1757Z reflectivity and SRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 TOR PROBS 70/70 for new TORNADO WATCH for OK/TX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 62 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Additional severe storms will develop along the dryline over the eastern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and spread east into western Oklahoma and a part of western North Texas. Very large hail will be the primary initial hazard, with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds increasing late afternoon into early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Alva OK to 55 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 thanks yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Well that's unfortunate timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Two targets have solidified as of 19Z. Both are boundaries. No need for models/CAMs now... Storm should ride the US-160 boundary in southern Kansas. One near Medicine Lodge is all by itself. Also got a beast farther west trying to detach from the line. East-central Texas Panhandle boundary intersection is clear as can be on GOES 16. Also cell just popped on AMA radar. Follow that into west-central Oklahoma. It's on the dry line bulge too. Both targets are solid fundamentals based regardless of CAMs. Hope it spreads the herd. Be safe and happy chasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Nice little discussion from the SPC re: no PDS watches (yet) today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Looks like we may have dryline initiation along the OK/TX border. Also first Tornado Warning of the day near Mullinville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 First TOR warning of the day Tornado Warning KSC047-057-097-021930- /O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0005.180502T1905Z-180502T1930Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Dodge City KS 205 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018 The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Ford County in southwestern Kansas... Northwestern Kiowa County in south central Kansas... Southwestern Edwards County in south central Kansas... * Until 230 PM CDT * At 205 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located 6 miles southeast of Windhorst, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * These dangerous storms will be near... Kinsley around 225 PM CDT. Centerview and Fellsburg around 230 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3764 9958 3772 9965 3795 9948 3790 9926 3773 9908 TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 234DEG 39KT 3770 9958 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.25IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 KAKE streaming coverage again: http://www.kake.com/category/314584/weather-now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 29 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: Well that's unfortunate timing Seems to be returning data again for the moment. They had routine maintenance yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Storm mode thus far is linear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 I'd rather be in the west central Oklahoma, but heading toward Emporia which I view as the next best option. Semi-discrete, potentially tornadic, supercells appear likely ahead of/south of the bow between 21-01Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Tescott/Culver tornado has been rated EF3 based on the damage to this house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 New post; Apparently "abusive" users indicates that those 6 IPs were repeatedly downloading data from NCEP servers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 0315 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 61... Valid 021947Z - 022145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues. SUMMARY...Latest guidance shows increasing concern for severe, damaging wind this afternoon and evening across portions of central Kansas ahead of an intensifying cluster of thunderstorms across southwest Kansas. These thunderstorms will move quickly to the northeast. DISCUSSION...Latest observations suggest mesoscale organization of the thunderstorm activity, with attendant rear-inflow jet development, across southwest Kansas. This larger-scale organization will support thunderstorm longevity as they move into an environment characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE and low-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. This environment and the approaching convective complex will support downward momentum transfer of strong lower-tropospheric flow resulting in an heightened potential for significant severe thunderstorm wind swaths at the surface, potentially in excess of 70-80 mph. As such, an increase in significant wind potential is expected over the next few hours. ..Marsh.. 05/02/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Those dual discrete supercells currently crossing the TX/OK border are certainly going to be worth watching... Per Mesonet/mesoanalysis surface winds across much of OK and Southern KS are already backed to the SSE. Which is significantly sooner than was progged... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Those dual discrete supercells currently crossing the TX/OK border are certainly going to be worth watching...That’s the area I’m in right now. I’m just sitting and waiting on that first cell between Magnum and Duke.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Quickly approaching the sup north of Erick, OK.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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