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Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3


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4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

If I were out, I'd probably start heading toward the cell NE of greensburg. The big Hoisington cell hasn't really done much so far and is about to be interfered with by a left mover coming from the south.

TOR warning dropped, lost its hook too. Most impressed with the Hunter, KS area cell atm.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
610 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
  
* AT 609 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF  
  BARNARD, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  GLASCO AROUND 640 PM CDT.   
  DELPHOS AROUND 645 PM CDT.  

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Possible rain-wrapped tornado may have occurred anywhere near the KS/NE border near Reynolds NE. It may take a while to get a report on that, if one happened.

 

edit: apparently we have a preliminary tornado report

--

    
At 648 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles southeast of
Fairbury, or 17 miles north of Washington, moving east at 35 mph. 

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. 
 

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3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Looks like cap killed former Macksville cell. Coldwater/SW of Medicine Lodge cell may meet the same fate.

It may have been more of a function of weak large scale forcing and being displaced from better moisture to the east, but we'll get a better idea with the 00z LMN sounding. This event has been very well modeled so far as virtually all of the CAMs suggested limited cell longevity, particularly south of the triple point. 

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

My GRLevel3 radar screen now shows a max delta-v of 130 kt near Glasco, KS. That's got to be a wider rotation (wider tornado?) at this point in time.

 

That is becoming a monster, very likely putting something (possibly significant, but likely wrapped) down by now.

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3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

My GRLevel3 radar screen now shows a max delta-v of 130 kt near Glasco, KS. That's got to be a wider rotation (wider tornado?) at this point in time.

Jeff Poitrowski was saying multi-vortex tornado on the ground before his feed cut out.

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3 minutes ago, Quincy said:

It may have been more of a function of weak large scale forcing and being displaced from better moisture to the east, but we'll get a better idea with the 00z LMN sounding. This event has been very well modeled so far as virtually all of the CAMs suggested limited cell longevity, particularly south of the triple point. 

Reflectivity ticking back up with the old Macksville cell, Medicine Lodge cell starting to hang a right. Patience may yet pay off for the southern chasers.

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3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

There so many competing lowerings rn

Apparently someone confirmed a large tornado in there. Warning from the NWS has PDS wording. Also the couplet has tightened significantly. 

EDIT: SN report of a large wedge tornado on that storm, but you know how accurate SN reports can be, especially since there's only one.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
707 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018  
  
KSC029-020030-  
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180502T0030Z/  
CLOUD-  
707 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL  
CLOUD COUNTY...  
      
AT 707 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF AURORA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.   
  
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  AURORA AROUND 725 PM CDT.   

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