JerseyWx Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah pretty springlike for a change Next week looks absolutely beautiful. Textbook early May weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 64degs., or about 2degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Newark tied the first week of May record high of 94 degrees a few days ago. The only previous 94 degree highs were in 2001, 2000, and 1949. Those were rare occasions when the May monthly maximum temperature occurred so early. The high for the month of May is usually recorded mid to late month. So it will be interesting to see if that small sample size is relevant to this May. Last 10 May monthly high temperatures and date for Newark 94..5-18-17 96...5-28-16 91...5-26-15 88...5-26-14 94...5-31-13 92...5-29-12 92...5-30-11 95...5-26-10 87...5-24-09 87...5-27-08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Where's all the rain today-you could see on the models that most of the area would be stuck in an area of subsidence today...not sure what Upton was seeing, but showers won't be happening for most today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Where's all the rain today-you could see on the models that most of the area would be stuck in an area of subsidence today...not sure what Upton was seeing, but showers won't be happening for most today/tonight. I only got .2" but it's soggy, cool, windy and dreary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Next 7 days up to an average of 66degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +15.2. At this rate we will still be +8 by the 14th., more than enough to set a new monthly record if we can end month near this much AN. My feeling is we enter the Holiday week in record territory and that we have some BN temps. at that time, but still nose in as warmest May ever. I base this on a warm Week 3 of at least +7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Ended April with a 7 day precip streak here...Some of us are starting May with a several day rainless streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 I hope this isn’t a sign of tho ha to come. Where the coast has another very dry warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I hope this isn’t a sign of tho ha to come. Where the coast has another very dry warm season. Seasonal rainfall forecasting is very challenging. Many times the patterns aren't revealed until they are occurring. Summer 2014 featured the 1000 year deluge in Islip. The 2015 summer was dry before that September localized Wantagh flash flood. Not much to speak of for the South Shore the last few summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 6, 2018 Author Share Posted May 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Seasonal rainfall forecasting is very challenging. Many times the patterns aren't revealed until they are occurring. Summer 2014 featured the 1000 year deluge in Islip. The 2015 summer was dry before that September localized Wantagh flash flood. Not much to speak of for the South Shore the last few summers. 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I hope this isn’t a sign of tho ha to come. Where the coast has another very dry warm season. The models seem to have just as much trouble forecasting rainfall as they do snowfall these days. It seems like many of our heavy rain/severe weather events are not known until the shorter term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 7 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Where's all the rain today-you could see on the models that most of the area would be stuck in an area of subsidence today...not sure what Upton was seeing, but showers won't be happening for most today/tonight. I didnt notice a single drop of rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 1 hour ago, dWave said: I didnt notice a single drop of rain today. Barely enough to dampen the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 66degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date +12.8. Should be near +6.5 by the 15th., still enough for a warmest ever May, if we end there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 14 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I hope this isn’t a sign of tho ha to come. Where the coast has another very dry warm season. ...yeah,but 'SurfFreak', that means great beach weather, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 13 hours ago, Rtd208 said: The models seem to have just as much trouble forecasting rainfall as they do snowfall these days. It seems like many of our heavy rain/severe weather events are not known until the shorter term. Severe and flash flood events with warm fronts usually overperform around NYC and Long Island. We usually do better with cold fronts later in the season when the ocean warms up. Debris clouds from the Midwest often result in busts here for convective forecasts. All these factors result in larger day 2 and sometimes day 1 forecast errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Beautiful 61 degrees outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Got down to 51F here this morning in Pelham Gardens. Perfect spring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 7 hours ago, tim said: ...yeah,but 'SurfFreak', that means great beach weather, no? It does. We are starting the beach season with water temps we’ll below normal. A couple weeks of full sun days should help close the gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Definitely been exceeding guidance this month with temps...even the "cooler" days like yesterday and today...up to 76° here. I see a pretty warm month incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 1 hour ago, doncat said: Definitely been exceeding guidance this month with temps...even the "cooler" days like yesterday and today...up to 76° here. I see a pretty warm month incoming. Exactly, it’s very warm in the city today. We have no trouble sky rocketing as long as the sun is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Perfect summer near San Francisco weather continues. High of 71 and a low of 52 today in SW Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Low of 50 got up to 78 gonna be a hot summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 Got up to 77 today. Looks like a long run of dry mild/warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 8, 2018 Author Share Posted May 8, 2018 High for the day got up to around 78 today, above forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 74/51 today, not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 67degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +11.8. Should be +7.6 by the 16th. Target is +6.4 By end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 The 70.8 average and +11.8 departure is the 3rd warmest first week of May on record for NYC. This is a continuation of the big temperature swings theme which has been going since September. Top 5 warmest May 1-7 in NYC #1...72.4....1930 #2...70.9....2010 #3...70.8....2018 #4...70.4....2001 #5...69.9...1949 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 So yesterday was the most extreme NAO since 11-26-2010 (negative), which it held for the next 40 days then switched to positive for 40 days. It's probably a -NAO July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 I haven't connected MJO. It seems to be something "as it's occurring" vs a predictor. I don't know, I think convection moving across the equator would be a predictor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 Anyway, this was more common in the 90s and around 2005-before 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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