gravitylover Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 I need it to be dry(ish) on Sunday just south of Hartford. It looks like there's a chance that could happen. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has most of the rain from later Saturday into Saturday night with the front. All these backdoors after warm ups are a result of the -EPO battling the WAR. Each one of these NEPAC ridge amplifications is accompanied by a big Canadian High to our north. This drops the backdoor and flattens the WAR for a few days. Rinse...repeat... JB had a good writeup about the cold area of water in the N Atlantic favoring cold and snows in Far NE Canada...as we shift to a -AMO we may see cooler Northeastern US and Eastern Canada summers in coming years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 38 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I need it to be dry(ish) on Sunday just south of Hartford. It looks like there's a chance that could happen. Thoughts? Currently modeling shows an unsettled pattern Sunday, but does not look like a washout at least at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Pretty crazy IMO that we are still getting BDCFs at the end of May, at least it won't be in the 50's. Also the NWS mentioned the potential for heavy rain/storms for the Saturday afternoon thru Monday timeframe with the best potential for heavy rain Saturday night into Sunday. It’s a good rule of thumb that we have to frequently deal with backdoor/marine layer garbage when there is troughing over the Maritimes and highs constantly build there. Until that changes we likely keep dealing with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: JB had a good writeup about the cold area of water in the N Atlantic favoring cold and snows in Far NE Canada...as we shift to a -AMO we may see cooler Northeastern US and Eastern Canada summers in coming years... If it wasn't for the -EPO/+PDO/+PMM ridge out West, the WAR would be dominating the pattern completely. -AMO patterns during the summer with a warm SST blob off the East Coast are usually hot. This was the case between 1991 and 1994. Long range models bring back the Eastern trough during the first week of June as the -EPO ridge pulses up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: If it wasn't for the -EPO/+PDO/+PMM ridge out west, the WAR would be dominating the pattern completely. -AMO patterns during the summer with a warm SST blob off the East Coast are usually hot. This was the case between 1991 and 1994. Long range models bring back the Eastern trough during the first week of June as the -EPO ridge pulses up again. That's one heck of a warm blob-I'd bet we see some good heat at some point this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: That's one heck of a warm blob-I'd bet we see some good heat at some point this summer That warm blob will probably be a magnet for much of the tropical ACE points this season. Most the tropical storm and hurricane tracks were focused in that region from 2013 to 2016. The strong STR and trades really tanked the MDR SST's this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: It’s a good rule of thumb that we have to frequently deal with backdoor/marine layer garbage when there is troughing over the Maritimes and highs constantly build there. Until that changes we likely keep dealing with it. Hasn't stopped us from getting a Top 5-10 warmest May. Once again when it got warm, it got really warm. Next couple days will follow that warmer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Sitting at 82, forecast said 74 this morning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 83/39, perfect day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning looks wet now. Maybe we can salvage Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 24, 2018 Author Share Posted May 24, 2018 Current temp 86/DP 49/RH 24% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 i approve of this model sounding for saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 59 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i approve of this model sounding for saturday Only problem is shear is relatively weak, but CAPE looks good. I’ll be in DC all weekend so hoping for sun and minimal rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 24, 2018 Author Share Posted May 24, 2018 Temp still on the rise here. Current temp is 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 May’s currently running 16 degrees warmer than April so far here. Crazy. And this gap will only increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weedlover420gramz Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Reached 86F today! Wow! Did some yardwork, didn't expect the temperatures to be touching 30C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 72 degs, or 4degs AN. Remainder of May is also averaging 72degs., or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +4.3 and should end near there. Holiday precipitation on the SREF has increased from 1.0" to 1.5", but is more concentrated (to Sat. night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Another big clash of air masses coming up with the backdoor cold front this weekend. While the cold will have time to modify coming south, parts of Canada just experienced a record breaking late season snowstorm. Looks like much of the rain potential this weekend will be focused into Saturday night and early Sunday. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-05-24-may-snow-canada-newfoundland-new-brunswick-california-sierra An unusual out-of-season snowfall resulted in some unbelievable pictures in Newfoundland and New Brunswick this week. Although snow in May does happen here, this is a rare snowfall so late in May. Then, Wednesday into Thursday Gander, Newfoundland measured over 13 inches (35 centimeters) of snow which is more than the largest 24-hour snowfall there this winter. The snowfall at Gander International Airport is also the second largest May snowfall on record and the biggest so late in the season, according to Rodney Barney with Environment Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 We may finally get a dry Memorial Day this year...parade has been scrubbed 2 year in a row here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 On 5/24/2018 at 6:49 AM, bluewave said: Thanks for this. Believe it or not, it favors El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 the models now bring the front back north of us monday and sunday doesn't look that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 NAM is now much drier as well-only isolated showers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NAM is now much drier as well-only isolated showers now. Nam has been jumping around run to run regarding qpf...Euro has been pretty consistent showing some significant rains for our area...We'll see how 12Z looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, doncat said: Nam has been jumping around run to run regarding qpf...Euro has been pretty consistent showing some significant rains for our area...We'll see how 12Z looks. I always think rain/storms is overdone with back door cold fronts. Often, it just rolls through dry with a change in wind direction and a deck of stratus clouds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I always think rain/storms is overdone with back door cold fronts. Often, it just rolls through dry with a change in wind direction and a deck of stratus clouds... Compare the 12Z runs of the nam and gfs for Connecticut for example...Nam is basically completely dry, while the gfs has significant rains statewide...take your pick lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 25, 2018 Author Share Posted May 25, 2018 Current temp 87/DP 55/RH 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Euro looks more like the NAM now-fairly dry-some scattered activity later Saturday, but mainly S and W of NYC mid 60's for most Sunday with overcast skies, but the coolest air is well N and E this run... - Monday is in the low to mid 70's region wide and variably cloudy. Limited precip all 3 days outside of the late day stuff Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro looks more like the NAM now-fairly dry-some scattered activity later Saturday, but mainly S and W of NYC mid 60's for most Sunday with overcast skies, but the coolest air is well N and E this run... - Monday is in the low to mid 70's region wide and variably cloudy. Limited precip all 3 days outside of the late day stuff Sat I'm very weary about precip forecasts once summer gets rolling, exact totals and where they'll fall become much harder to forecast. It may end up being dry but I wouldn't guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm very weary about precip forecasts once summer gets rolling, exact totals and where they'll fall become much harder to forecast. It may end up being dry but I wouldn't guarantee it. Me neither. With a front nearby you never know. I think the one thing that can be ruled out is an all day washout any of the 3 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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