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May 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Our temperature drop from 88 to 66 in about 6 minutes was pretty extreme. It was also pretty cool having waves from a small lake crashing over the bank and slapping the side of the car up to the window level when we drove through on Rt 6. Thankfully no real damage at my house and we're all ok so I got to appreciate the severity of the storm while out in the meat of it. I'd do it again but without my wife and kids in the car, I don't think they enjoyed it like I did.

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10 out of the first 15 days of May with at least a T of rain must be close to a record for NYC. This  pattern will continue at least into early next week.

5-03...0.2

5-04..T

5-05..T

5-05..T

5-6....T

5-10..0.25

5-12..0.22

5-13..0.10

5-14..0.03

5-15..0.58

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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

10 out of the first 15 days of May with at least a T of rain must be close to a record for NYC. Very impressive as this pattern is set to continue at least into early next week. Coming off the wet pattern since February, all the vegetation is green and lush looking like a tropical rainforest.

5-03...0.2

5-04..T

5-05..T

5-05..T

5-6....T

5-10..0.25

5-12..0.22

5-13..0.10

5-14..0.03

5-15..0.58

A landscapers dream or nightmare depending how you look at it. Looks like there remains the potential for more heavy rain/storms/flooding into early next week especially as we head into late week and the weekend.

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11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

A landscapers dream or nightmare depending how you look at it. Looks like there remains the potential for more heavy rain/storms/flooding into early next week especially as we head into late week and the weekend.

Be interesting to see how far north the Euro 5"+ jackpot zone gets on future runs.

 

ecmwf_tprecip_nj_29.thumb.png.61f49703243a4a7315f86a60f48a59e9.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Has it been gradually shifting north or fluctuating on each run??

Seems to be moving around between Central and Southern NJ. The one common denominator is the last 5 runs have had a 5"+ max zone.

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Seems to be moving around between Central and Southern NJ. The one common denominator is the last 5 runs have had a 5"+ max zone.

Yeah it will be interesting to see if things come further north. The NYC metro will still see substantial rainfall and I think widespread 2-3" amounts are a good bet with locally higher amounts in any thunderstorms we will see. Looks like the wettest period right now is going to be Friday/Saturday.

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

A landscapers dream or nightmare depending how you look at it. Looks like there remains the potential for more heavy rain/storms/flooding into early next week especially as we head into late week and the weekend.

Pretty much. All the rain will help my design installations. But all the rain will prevent more work.

im curious to see if we can end the streak of rain not making it the coast during the warm season. The last few summers have been brutally dry for the coast

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23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty much. All the rain will help my design installations. But all the rain will prevent more work.

im curious to see if we can end the streak of rain not making it the coast during the warm season. The last few summers have been brutally dry for the coast

We really need elevated convection, a lucky warm front placement or stratiform heavier rain this time of year. As we saw yesterday the normal convective stuff 90%+ of the time will die out as it comes in. I had maybe 0.25” yesterday with brief heavier rain and a couple of thunder rumbles. 

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17 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i would hedge north with the rains given the WAR

my counter to that is the sneaky high in eastern Canada that is showing up on modeling-might suppress it a bit or even focus the rains in a narrower area given the squeeze play...

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