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May 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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the last time the temp went into the 30's in NYC was 5/1/1978...the last time the temp was 95 or higher was in 1996...

May

Average Temperature and precipitation...

decade....temp...high...low.....max/min temp ave/max/min/90+days/ ave precipitation...

1870's....60.3...63.3...58.8.......................................................2.......2.50"

1880's....61.3...67.9...56.6......96......35......87.2......40.9.........6.......3.07"

1890's....60.8...67.0...57.8......96......32......85.7......41.6.........6.......3.67"

1900's....60.7...63.4...56.2......90......37......86.6......41.5.........2.......3.41"

1910's....61.5...65.3...54.3......95......36......86.8......41.7.........4.......3.39"

1920's....60.2...64.6...57.3......93......37......84.2......41.5.........2.......3.59"

1930's....63.0...64.9...59.9......96......40......90.5......43.5.......19.......3.23"

1940's....62.5...67.0...59.2......96......35......88.8......42.7.........8.......4.52" trace of snow in 1946

1950's....61.9...66.4...58.7......94......38......87.2......41.7.........6.......3.29"

1960's....62.2...66.4...55.2......99......36......88.3......41.6.......11.......3.02"

1970's....62.7...65.8...59.5......94......36......89.0......41.1.......10.......5.00" trace of snow in 1977

1980's....63.6...66.0...60.2......97......41......88.0......43.7.......10.......4.39"

1990's....62.7...68.7...59.4......96......40......89.4......44.0.......11.......4.16"

2000's....62.2...65.2...58.7......93......41......86.2......43.4.........8.......3.66"

2010's....64.3...68.5...61.1......92......41......89.8......45.3.........8.......4.73"

1870-

2009......61.8...65.9...58.0..........................87.5......42.2.........8.......3.64"

1980-

2009..... 62.8...66.6...59.4..........................87.9......43.7.......10.......4.07"

warmest.........coolest...........wettest............driest......

68.7 in 1991...54.3 in 1917...10.24" in 1989...0.30" in 1903

68.5 in 2015...55.2 in 1967.....9.74" in 1984...0.34" in 1887

67.9 in 1880...55.2 in 1907.....9.15" in 1978...0.57" in 1964

67.0 in 1896...56.6 in 1882.....9.10" in 1990...0.62" in 1880

67.0 in 1944...57.3 in 1924.....8.51" in 1908...0.72" in 1905

66.4 in 1959...57.4 in 1901.....8.39" in 1972...0.89" in 1939

66.4 in 1965...57.7 in 1869.....8.00" in 2013...0.95" in 1877

66.0 in 1986...57.8 in 1891.....7.61" in 1940...1.05" in 1935

65.8 in 1975...58.0 in 1888.....7.58" in 1948...1.09" in 1899

65.7 in 1993...58.2 in 1893.....7.06" in 1968...1.18" in 1944

warmest temperatures...

99 5/19/1962

97 5/29/1969

97 5/30/1987

96 5/20/1996

96 5/22/1941

96 5/27/1880

96 5/29/1987

96 5/31/1895

95 5/25/1880

95 5/26/1880

95 5/27/1914

coldest temperatures...

32 5/06/1891

34 5/05/1891

35 5/01/1880

35 5/09/1947

36 5/11/1913

36 5/10/1966

36 5/10/1947

36 5/09/1977

36 5/03/1874

36 5/01/1876

coldest max days...

43 5/3/1873

43 5/5/1891

44 5/7/1967

44 5/5/1917

44 5/9/1977

45 5/1/1917

45 5/2/1962

45 5/5/1978

45 5/6/1891

46 5/25/1967+

warmest min. days...

76 5/31/1987

75 5/18/2017

75 5/31/1895

75 5/31/2013

74 5/09/2000

74 5/20/1996

74 5/27/1908

74 5/29/1969

74 5/30/1987

73 5/25/1880

73 5/27/2016

73 5/28/1959

73 5/30/1986+

Warmest monthly minimum...

49 in 2012

49 in 1982

49 in 2014

48 in 1899

48 in 2015

48 in 1910

47 in 1942

47 in 1944

47 in 1969

47 in 1991

46 in 2011

46 in 2000

46 in 1999 + =and other years...

coldest monthly maximum...

75 in 1924

79 in 2005

79 in 2003

79 in 1983

79 in 1928

79 in 1927

79 in 1915

80 in 1968

80 in 1882

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From early April straight into late June

.MONDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning. Highs
in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 

.TUESDAY...Sunny. Not as cool with highs around 80. 
 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 

.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 
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NYC May warmth spells with at least three consecutive days 85 or higher...

dates.................days 90+ max

5/25-27/1880.....3.......3.....96

5/09-11/1896.....3.......3.....91

5/05-09/1930.....5.......2.....91

5/28-30/1931.....3.......3.....93

5/27-29/1935.....3.......0.....89

5/28-31/1939.....4.......3.....96

5/27-30/1959.....4.......1.....94

5/20-22/1959.....3.......2.....91

5/18-21/1962.....4.......2.....99

5/29-31/1969.....3.......2.....97

5/09-13/1970.....5.......2.....93

5/22-24/1980.....3.......1.....90

5/24-27/1981.....4.......0.....87

5/28-31/1986.....4.......2.....94

5/28-31/1987.....4.......3.....97

5/29-31/1988.....3.......1.....91

5/27-31/1991.....5.......3.....91

5/21-23/1992.....3.......2.....93

5/19-21/1996.....3.......2.....96

5/29-31/1999.....3.......0.....89

5/05-09/2000.....5.......3.....93

5/01-04/2001.....4.......3.....92

5/11-13/2004.....3.......0.....86

5/25-31/2015.....7.......0.....88

5/25-29/2016.....5.......2.....92

5/17-19/2017.....3.......3.....91

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Next 8 days averaging 67degs., or 7degs. AN.

Still thinking first 90deg. day/outbreak near 5/21-5/25.  Holiday weekend looks to be a clash between southeast ridge and a very cold Canadian airmass---probably wet.

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Big spring warm up on the way. 50's and 60's along the South Shore beaches and upper 80's near 90 further inland. Ocean temps are still in the mid 40's. Pretty good Ambrose Jet set up with plenty of blowing sand down in Long Beach.

 

f63.thumb.gif.a2c826e2fc07e54b3a5a5be7b84f1a07.gif

 

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April ended at  -3.6.     This puts the year to date at a  -0. 18.   It took 3 negative months to wipe out the damage from Feb.

J    -0.9*31=-28     F   +6.7*28=+188     M   -2.4*31=-74     A   -3.6*30=-108   or  -22/120=-0.18deg. for the YTD. 

Temp. here is now 63, up from 48 at 7AM.

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Big spring warm up on the way. 50's and 60's along the South Shore beaches and upper 80's near 90 further inland. Ocean temps are still in the mid 40's. Pretty good Ambrose Jet set up with plenty of blowing sand down in Long Beach.

 

f63.thumb.gif.a2c826e2fc07e54b3a5a5be7b84f1a07.gif

 

It will be one of those days where the fog races inland but only makes it to the bridge. And will only be a couple hundred feet thick. 

Luckly the SS scored a perfect spring day today with the light offshore flow 

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 

Luckly the SS scored a perfect spring day today with the light offshore flow 

Up in the 70's earlier and now down the the 60's with a nice breeze off the water. The sea breeze is one of my favorite parts of living on the South Shore. I am not a fan of those summer 588+ dam ridge hot offshore flow days.

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Got a full three hours on beach here w/o much of a wind factor.  One more warm/sunny day tomorrow, then it appears like clouds or more bust up the party Thur., Fri., Sat., Sun., Mon.  Decent temps. hold on so far it seems.

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Next 8 days up to an average of 69degs., or about 8degs. AN.

While the GFS cries 'How dry I am' for the next 10 days---CMC has some rain on the 6th. & 10th.  High CAPE on 4th/5th so might change.

Rossby Wave Train looks cooler than recent runs for rest of May/June.   It has June/July/Aug. period a little AN however.

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If the NAM is right, we see severe in the area Thursday and maybe Friday.  SPC “slight” risk area is closer to best forcing but parameters are great near NYC if something fires, with plenty of speed shear for organized storms and lots of CAPE.  Nested NAM looks like it wants to fire some splitting supercells near Port Jervis and coverage should remain scattered, so anything that does fire down by NYC won’t turn into our usual messy line in 45 minutes.  Probably nothing but something to monitor at least while we armchair chase the Plains.

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