MikeB_01 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 This might be hunch, but i think the WV tells a little bit better story of where Flo ends up making landfall. Guidance wants to drive her further down the coast towards the NC/SC boarder. IMO the disturbance sitting over florida pushes her a little further north, north of Emerald Isle, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Another 2" of rain from remnants of Flo when she gets here, if she gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/10/2018 at 4:09 PM, MikeB_01 said: This might be hunch, but i think the WV tells a little bit better story of where Flo ends up making landfall. Guidance wants to drive her further down the coast towards the NC/SC boarder. IMO the disturbance sitting over florida pushes her a little further north, north of Emerald Isle, NC. That stall and SW slide down the coast is just crazy... Storm surge coupled with all the rain and wind for 42+ hours is just really unprecedented. Starting to wonder what's going to be left standing... Our family vacations in Topsail frequently.. thinking it may be awhile before we get back after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: Another 2" of rain from remnants of Flo when she gets here, if she gets here. Luckily wind won't be much of a factor I don't think. Hopefully most of the runoff has worked it's way out of here by Monday night next week so flooding would be minimal from another 2in, but the ground will be pretty saturated so could see another round of mud slides, also, if it tracks a little closer we end up closer to 3-4 inches which would be troublesome for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This has to be overdone right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3k throws some cat 5 winds in there around landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 57 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: This has to be overdone right? Haha wow.. it looks bad on the NAM, id bet its not the best tool to use for this case.. looks like one of the maps from that movie "Day After Tomorrow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Bring on winter. I'm sick of being in the academy dealing with the heat. It was absolutely brutal last week at our live burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Crankyweatherguy on twitter posted this. Thought it was interesting for all the “King Euro” lovers out there. Euro performed horribly on Florence the entire time. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted September 15, 2018 Author Share Posted September 15, 2018 000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150108 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 908 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper ridge will continue to suppress widespread rain through the weekend. Rainfall from the remnant of Florence is expected to spread over the region Sunday night and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... No major changes were needed for the late eve update. Otherwise, subsidence via a broad upper ridge to the north of tropical storm Florence will continue to suppress all but isolated showers. A better chance can be expected over the ridges as easterly upslope gradually improves. Temperature will remain warm and humidity level high. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The upper ridge will begin to break down this weekend, with Florence finally moving toward the Upper Ohio by Sunday night. Trying to stay close to the NHC track for the timing and location of the storm, which would bring the bulk of the rainfall into the region Monday. Higher amounts of rainfall are expected to the south and east, with up to 4 inches possible in the higher elevations. Significant uncertainty remains as far as track and timing. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Florence is currently projected to exit eastward on Tuesday. An approaching cold front is timed to return rain chance to the area by Friday. Above average temperatures are expected during the first half of the week before more seasonal levels return Wednesday. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR, to high-end MVFR will prevail through Saturday. The exeception will continue to be DUJ where moist easterly flow again will suppport IFR stratus later tonight and early Saturday. Outlook... Widespread restrictions are likely by Monday with the crossing of the Florence remnant. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Just a heads up that when the site goes down, especially during an event, the old stomping grounds site is still open. Just go to personal discussions, and you'll see the Pittsburgh tread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 On 9/23/2018 at 9:37 AM, CoraopolisWx said: Just a heads up that when the site goes down, especially during an event, the old stomping grounds site is still open. Just go to personal discussions, and you'll see the Pittsburgh tread. Cool. Where is that....link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Nice cool down to average but no signs that I can see in the models of any significant cold coming down. That is okay with me...we don't want it too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 52 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said: Cool. Where is that....link? Accuweather Forum Wasn't sure if it was even ok to mention another forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 2 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said: Cool. Where is that....link? 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Accuweather Forum Wasn't sure if it was even ok to mention another forum. Just got word that the accuweather forum is closing at the end of the year. This is were most of those folks are migrating to: https://wxdisco.com/forums/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Just got word that the accuweather forum is closing at the end of the year. This is were most of those folks are migrating to: https://wxdisco.com/forums/ Not sure I like being lumped together with everyone from a whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 3 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said: Not sure I like being lumped together with everyone from a whole region. Yeah I hear ya. I just found out about this today, so haven't been able to look too closely at the site. Hopefully we'll be all good, but just in case we crash here, we have a rendezvous point to gather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Here's a topic/thread I started for us: https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/386-pittsburgh-weather/?tab=comments#comment-9378 I placed it in the Personal Weather section so it's easier to find when needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 2 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Here's a topic/thread I started for us: https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/386-pittsburgh-weather/?tab=comments#comment-9378 I placed it in the Personal Weather section so it's easier to find when needed. Awesome. Thanks for setting this up. Will be great to have a place to go when the site crashes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Thanks for posting this. like to read this all the time and a little of me cries when it's down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 392 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast New York Eastern Ohio Pennsylvania Extreme northern West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A moist and modestly unstable environment along with increasingly strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support the possibility of supercells capable of a tornado risk along with hail/wind. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Youngstown OH to 30 miles east southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Guyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 PAC003-007-125-WVC029-021930- /O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-181002T1930Z/ Washington PA-Beaver PA-Allegheny PA-Hancock WV- 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN BEAVER...NORTHWESTERN ALLEGHENY AND SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES... At 256 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Weirton, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Mount Lebanon... Moon Township... Weirton... Franklin Park... Upper St. Clair... Scott Township... Robinson Township... Carnegie... Kennedy Township... Stowe Township... McKees Rocks... This includes the following highways... Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 55 and 70. Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 49 and 66. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for western and southwestern Pennsylvania...and northern West Virginia. LAT...LON 4036 8005 4039 8052 4040 8052 4040 8059 4047 8059 4058 8010 TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 260DEG 23KT 4045 8048 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 The cell to the west of the airport showing some decent rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: The cell to the west of the airport showing some decent rotation. However, in the last few frames, it has really lost its wind speed. and the velocities showing up on radar don't support even a severe thunderstorm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: However, in the last few frames, it has really lost its wind speed. and the velocities showing up on radar don't support even a severe thunderstorm warning It fell apart, which is fine with me because it was heading right towards my home, and I don’t really enjoy microbutsts or tornadoes. also, the storms near Erie are impressive. Wording in their warning literally say there is a “large and extremely dangerous tornado” which is wording we never see around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 PAC039-021945- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181002T1945Z/ Crawford PA- 328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY... At 328 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Harmonsburg, or 8 miles northwest of Meadville, moving east at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations... Conneautville and Conneaut Lakeshore. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4169 8046 4178 8049 4180 8027 4163 8027 TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 276DEG 32KT 4171 8029 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...1.00IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 PAC039-021945- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181002T1945Z/ Crawford PA- 328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY... At 328 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Harmonsburg, or 8 miles northwest of Meadville, moving east at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations... Conneautville and Conneaut Lakeshore. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4169 8046 4178 8049 4180 8027 4163 8027 TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 276DEG 32KT 4171 8029 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...1.00IN Thanks for posting, like I said, we never see that here...in October Tia is even more rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Tornado Watch WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 392/393 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 329 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 OHC029-081-PAC003-005-007-019-031-053-063-065-073-085-121-125-129- WVC009-029-030300- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.A.0392.000000T0000Z-181003T0300Z/ TORNADO WATCH 392 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO COLUMBIANA JEFFERSON IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FOREST MERCER VENANGO IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALLEGHENY WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ARMSTRONG BUTLER CLARION INDIANA JEFFERSON IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BEAVER LAWRENCE IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA BROOKE HANCOCK THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALIQUIPPA, AMBRIDGE, BEAVER FALLS, BROOKVILLE, BUTLER, CANONSBURG, CLARION, COLUMBIANA, EAST LIVERPOOL, ELLWOOD CITY, FOLLANSBEE, FORD CITY, FRANKLIN, GREENSBURG, GROVE CITY, HERMITAGE, INDIANA, KITTANNING, LATROBE, MONACA, MURRYSVILLE, NEW CASTLE, NEW KENSINGTON, OIL CITY, PITTSBURGH METRO AREA, PUNXSUTAWNEY, SALEM, SHARON, STEUBENVILLE, TIONESTA, WASHINGTON, WEIRTON, AND WELLSBURG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Tornado Warning PAC039-022015- /O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0009.181002T1939Z-181002T2015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cleveland OH 339 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 338 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Meadville, moving east at 35 mph. Another rotating storm capable of producing a tornado is 5 miles west of Conneautville, moving east at 35 mph toward Conneautville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations... Venango, Conneautville, Woodcock, Saegertown, Blooming Valley and Springboro. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4171 8050 4180 8047 4178 8002 4156 8000 TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 276DEG 32KT 4170 8018 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...1.00IN $$ LaPlante Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Tornado WarningPAC039-022015-/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0009.181002T1939Z-181002T2015Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTornado WarningNational Weather Service Cleveland OH339 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a* Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania...* Until 415 PM EDT.* At 338 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Meadville, moving east at 35 mph. Another rotating storm capable of producing a tornado is 5 mileswest of Conneautville, moving east at 35 mph toward Conneautville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations... Venango, Conneautville, Woodcock, Saegertown, Blooming Valley and Springboro.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadlytornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move toa basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdybuilding. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or ina vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protectyourself from flying debris.&&LAT...LON 4171 8050 4180 8047 4178 8002 4156 8000TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 276DEG 32KT 4170 8018TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDTORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLEHAIL...1.00IN$$LaPlanteI wish we had decent radar coverage over there. Would love to see the correlation coefficient. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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