Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/22/2018 at 11:54 AM, raindancewx said:

It is interesting looking at what the CFS shows v. what the Canadian shows for DJF.

The warm-tongue in the PDO zone exists on both models, which is not consistent with a positive PDO, despite the warm ring around Alaska/Canada. Huge difference though in where the El Nino is centered - 120W or 140W, and whether the Atlantic stays relatively cold or not.

Neutral PDO or even somewhat negative PDO with an El Nino would be an interesting winter. You can see where the warm tongue is above v. on the schematic from JISAO below.

The 60s featured multuple warm ENSO/cold PDO couplets.

[raindancewx]

I did a bunch of research last year on Modoki structure, and basically October is a pretty good indicator for the winter. The cool thing though is the model runs that come on Aug 1 should be a good indicator themselves for October - so I think we'll have a decent idea of how things will play out shortly. In the meantime, some very warm water is coming up by 120W, and the waters are starting to cover the entire 3.4 zone. The SOI has also been negative again after a fairly prolonged spike.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ray, what is the index for the SSTAs over the North Atlantic Ocean near Greenland?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I wouldn't be surprised if we went into a weaker Nina.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/

[raindancewx]

Looks a bit like 2006 to me (big blob near the surface in late July).

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we went into a weaker Nina.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/

You mean a failed el nino? I would.....atmosphere is no longer in la nina state.

[raindancewx]

I think the recent positive SOI is temporarily (hopefully) interfering with the development of the Nino at the moment. That said, July does look like a (weaker) blend of 1965, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, and the recent patches of cool in the US are similar to the blend of those years for July.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I think the recent positive SOI is temporarily (hopefully) interfering with the development of the Nino at the moment. That said, July does look like a (weaker) blend of 1965, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, and the recent patches of cool in the US are similar to the blend of those years for July.

 

IMHO this just confirms its not going to be a robust event...this is what happens in modest events....it gets beaten back periodically.

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/25/2018 at 11:24 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mid Atl should root for a moderate el nino since Miller B cyclogenesis would be prevalent in the absence of a potent STJ.

Then you face warmth issues. Ill take my chances that a weak can still stir up STJ and throw in some right timing and we will be good. I only ever hope for just one big storm, usually hit our average that way (~27"). Things looking more and more weak nino this year. Might just barely scratch that threshold too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On July 28, 2018 at 12:05 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Then you face warmth issues. Ill take my chances that a weak can still stir up STJ and throw in some right timing and we will be good. I only ever hope for just one big storm, usually hit our average that way (~27"). Things looking more and more weak nino this year. Might just barely scratch that threshold too.

The warmth issues come with an east based el nino, and that is the same regardless of intensity.

You are focused on the wrong variable..

Intensity only becomes an issue if its strong (and these are usually east-based), which this one will not be-

Its all about forcing....moderate is generally best for the mid atl...do the climo research, and you will see.

Weak favors the northeast...they don't have to be terrible for your area, in fact many are still good, but you run the risk of regimes similar to 2004-2005, etc.

Miller B city.

[raindancewx]

Here is a look at the relationship between the Atlantic in July (much colder than last year) and US tendencies in the following December. Given the AMO was +0.3 in July 2017 but may be -0.05 to +0.05 this July, this imprint should exist strongly barring a big time AMO warm up. The valleys of California should be much colder, with the SW by NM/AZ/MX much wetter. The East, save Maine, is favored warmer in December.

The Atlantic's cold flip from last year seems to be gaining, not weakening by the way.

 

[raindancewx]

The cold AMO ring present in July 2018 is fairly unusual for a developing El Nino. Only a hand full of years have it, 2002, 1994, 1986, 1982, 1972, and arguably a few El Nino years in the 1960s.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3

Last July at this time is when Nino 3.4 began to bottom out and flip to La Nina. Still a lot of warm water in the subsurface though for this year.

[raindancewx]

The Canadian still has El Nino conditions developing in August.

Not really a Modoki look either, with the core of the Nino now centered more to the East. Looks like an East-Central event.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I was saying, but I keep deleting.. the pattern in the North Pacific starting tomorrow and for the next 8-9 days looks like a cooling subsurface wave. Being as it's cooled so much already, this pretty much squashes the El Nino chances. -0.1 to 0.0 DJF would be my call, maybe more because of global warming. 

[JakkelWx]

13 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I was saying, but I keep deleting.. the pattern in the North Pacific starting tomorrow and for the next 8-9 days looks like a cooling subsurface wave. Being as it's cooled so much already, this pretty much squashes the El Nino chances. -0.1 to 0.0 DJF would be my call, maybe more because of global warming. 

How does cooling subsurface magically squash chances of El Nino? Dude it's only August.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

-PNA more than very likely through the Fall and early Winter. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looks like La Nina

https://www.weather.gov/

[raindancewx]

The MJO/SOI are mostly responsible for the pattern now, although the SOI did crash again today.

The problem with a flat ONI for DJF is we're already at ~0.1C, maybe 0.2C, maybe 0.0C for JJA. There is still warm water below the surface, so I think one more good push to the surface is needed and then the warmth becomes self sustaining. It isn't like last year (at least now) where the warm water just vanished fast at the end of July. The Canadian last year went from a Nino to Neutral from its 7/1 to 8/1 update. Not so this year, although it did weaken the onset a bit.

[bkviking]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The MJO/SOI are mostly responsible for the pattern now, although the SOI did crash again today.

The problem with a flat ONI for DJF is we're already at ~0.1C, maybe 0.2C, maybe 0.0C for JJA. There is still warm water below the surface, so I think one more good push to the surface is needed and then the warmth becomes self sustaining. It isn't like last year (at least now) where the warm water just vanished fast at the end of July. The Canadian last year went from a Nino to Neutral from its 7/1 to 8/1 update. Not so this year, although it did weaken the onset a bit.

I gotta be honest with you : “Chuck” has spouted some good stuff since his return last year. But I am getting so perplexed by his constant shifting the last several months. This is a good thread and needed across the board as ENSO truly is universal in how it affects the US. 

But it’s getting hard to follow Chuck with the swings lately from Niño to Nina to Niño to Nina. Don’t want to say he’s wrong but I just am incredulous about his posts. 

Wish some additional heavyweights would join this thread (thanks to Ray, from NE) as it’s mighty crucial for most of us. 

[raindancewx]

Looks like the Euro data set had Nino 3.4 at +0.4C in July. CPC ONI for MJJ is probably +0.1 or +0.2, up from -0.1 in AMJ.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On August 1, 2018 at 9:09 PM, bkviking said:

I gotta be honest with you : “Chuck” has spouted some good stuff since his return last year. But I am getting so perplexed by his constant shifting the last several months. This is a good thread and needed across the board as ENSO truly is universal in how it affects the US. 

But it’s getting hard to follow Chuck with the swings lately from Niño to Nina to Niño to Nina. Don’t want to say he’s wrong but I just am incredulous about his posts. 

Wish some additional heavyweights would join this thread (thanks to Ray, from NE) as it’s mighty crucial for most of us. 

Not a ton to say at this point, but to echo the sentiment above, and I mentioned this in my last blog post, models backed off wholesale last year at this time. Not the case this year. Couple that with climo following two consecutive la nina events, and I am fairly confident of a weak to moderate el nino...early guess would be like +1.0 ish....but like I said before, modoki value is more important than strength, assuming modest intensity...and that is too early to say.

We all maybe porked with an east-based event, but given a modoki, I would be rooting on a moderate event below NYC, and weak from there points north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On July 26, 2018 at 5:34 PM, raindancewx said:

Looks a bit like 2006 to me (big blob near the surface in late July).

May be a good analog is it goes east-based.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On July 25, 2018 at 7:21 PM, raindancewx said:

I did a bunch of research last year on Modoki structure, and basically October is a pretty good indicator for the winter. The cool thing though is the model runs that come on Aug 1 should be a good indicator themselves for October - so I think we'll have a decent idea of how things will play out shortly. In the meantime, some very warm water is coming up by 120W, and the waters are starting to cover the entire 3.4 zone. The SOI has also been negative again after a fairly prolonged spike.

Any update on this?

TIA...

[raindancewx]

Need to see the July numbers for Nino 1.2 and Nino 3.4 first. The Modoki formula is Box A-(0.5*Box B)-(0.5*Box C), and very positive values correspond to Modoki El Ninos. I'm expecting a +0.5 Modoki value, similar to the DJF Modoki value for 2014-15, but not as severe a winter in the East without the super charged positive PDO. You can predict Modoki values in each box for winter with October values pretty closely with simple correlations, to estimate the overall Modoki structure. That method had -0.1 to +0.1 last winter, which verified. July data is good at predicting October - so that is the method. For Box C, the rate of warming is faster since 1900 than the other boxes and solar conditions correlate to wind direction/velocity, so year and solar are important components for that area.

This is what the numbers input for last year had (-0.08 was the actual DJF Modoki value). This is a calculator for Modoki structure I made on my computer.

Region	SSTA Anomalies by Box			Global Area
Box A	165E to 140W, 10S to 10N			Trop Pac Middle
Box B	110W to 70W, 15S to 5N			S. America waters
Box C	125E-145E, 10S to 20N			Japan to Equator
Index	Modoki = (A SSTA)-(0.5B SSTA)-(0.5C*SSTA)
*Enter Input Values in Yellow Boxes. Computer Will Calculate Pink Values*
BOX	Input	Temp, C	Forecast	1950-2017 Range (ERSST V.5)
BOX A	Oct SST, C	26.15	-0.064	24.4C to 29.1C
BOX B	Oct SST, C	20.21	-0.251	18.9C to 24.7C
BOX C			0.492	Enter Input Values in this Color
Box C Projection Factors
Factor	Timeframe	Input
Year	Dec of DJF	2017
Sunspots	July-June	18.0
ONIp	ONI prior DJF	-0.4
Predicted Modoki Value for Winter			-0.184

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

[raindancewx]

ONI came in a +0.1C for JJA. The July Nino 3.4 reading was up, but only slightly from June. Trends in past years that look like 2018 include 2012, 2006, 1986.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1

YR   MON  TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 

2018   5   27.74   27.85   -0.11
2018   6   27.78   27.65    0.13
2018   7   27.43   27.26    0.17

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Last year, July was cooling off from June and the warm subsurface vanished. Doesn't look that way this year.

[raindancewx]

For those expecting a super cold winter in the East, keep in mind 2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15 all had positive to record positive PDO values in DJF - a strong signal for cold in the East. In 2002-03 MJJ was already in an El Nino (+0.7C), which drove the PDO up through winter. No evidence of that happening yet for the coming winter.

I would argue the Atlantic being colder and the PDO being more negative are both pretty strong warm signals for the East relative to 2009-10 and 2014-15, even though some kind of Modoki El Nino is still plausible. Nov-Apr PDO is generally predictable by taking the PDO base in Mar-Aug before winter, and then seeing what Oct Nino 1.2 SSTs are. Reproducing those values is a good indicator for the PDO in Nov-Apr. All in all, the PDO looks much more negative for Eastern cold. May come in around 0 in Nov-Apr instead of +2 like in Nov-Apr 2014-15, a huge change.

 

[jaxjagman]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

For those expecting a super cold winter in the East, keep in mind 2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15 all had positive to record positive PDO values in DJF - a strong signal for cold in the East. In 2002-03 MJJ was already in an El Nino (+0.7C), which drove the PDO up through winter. No evidence of that happening yet for the coming winter.

I would argue the Atlantic being colder and the PDO being more negative are both pretty strong warm signals for the East relative to 2009-10 and 2014-15, even though some kind of Modoki El Nino is still plausible. Nov-Apr PDO is generally predictable by taking the PDO base in Mar-Aug before winter, and then seeing what Oct Nino 1.2 SSTs are. Reproducing those values is a good indicator for the PDO in Nov-Apr. All in all, the PDO looks much more negative for Eastern cold. May come in around 0 in Nov-Apr instead of +2 like in Nov-Apr 2014-15, a huge change.

 

Not trying to make it sound like wish casting, but i'm hoping for a 2009-10 winter repeat.This was the coldest winter in Mid Tn in 30 years during this time frame.With a developing Nino,-QBO and like you mentioned a +PDO.But the PDO into this time frame Nov. of 2009 was still negative then warming into the winter months.But it won't probably match up with the ONI posted above but still signs of a more cold winter ,least right now it seems

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

ENSO is a two sided +/- in the west and east.. this is below 0 signature, trending cooler. 

About 150W-> and 180W-<

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

ENSO is a two sided +/- in the west and east.. this is below 0 signature, trending cooler. 

About 150W-> and 180W-<

But is this more from a decent KW downwelling?Your map didn't pull up but WEST of the IDL and even east of the IDL is showing the thermocline around +2 on the triton,i assume that was the map you meant to post?It still looks warmer in the thermocline towards the surface into 3.4 than it does into or around the IDO

[40/70 Benchmark]

On August 3, 2018 at 12:49 AM, raindancewx said:

Need to see the July numbers for Nino 1.2 and Nino 3.4 first. The Modoki formula is Box A-(0.5*Box B)-(0.5*Box C), and very positive values correspond to Modoki El Ninos. I'm expecting a +0.5 Modoki value, similar to the DJF Modoki value for 2014-15, but not as severe a winter in the East without the super charged positive PDO. You can predict Modoki values in each box for winter with October values pretty closely with simple correlations, to estimate the overall Modoki structure. That method had -0.1 to +0.1 last winter, which verified. July data is good at predicting October - so that is the method. For Box C, the rate of warming is faster since 1900 than the other boxes and solar conditions correlate to wind direction/velocity, so year and solar are important components for that area.

This is what the numbers input for last year had (-0.08 was the actual DJF Modoki value). This is a calculator for Modoki structure I made on my computer.

Region	SSTA Anomalies by Box			Global Area
Box A	165E to 140W, 10S to 10N			Trop Pac Middle
Box B	110W to 70W, 15S to 5N			S. America waters
Box C	125E-145E, 10S to 20N			Japan to Equator
Index	Modoki = (A SSTA)-(0.5B SSTA)-(0.5C*SSTA)
*Enter Input Values in Yellow Boxes. Computer Will Calculate Pink Values*
BOX	Input	Temp, C	Forecast	1950-2017 Range (ERSST V.5)
BOX A	Oct SST, C	26.15	-0.064	24.4C to 29.1C
BOX B	Oct SST, C	20.21	-0.251	18.9C to 24.7C
BOX C			0.492	Enter Input Values in this Color
Box C Projection Factors
Factor	Timeframe	Input
Year	Dec of DJF	2017
Sunspots	July-June	18.0
ONIp	ONI prior DJF	-0.4
Predicted Modoki Value for Winter			-0.184

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

Damn...I was hoping for another 100" in 30 days.