Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[StormchaserChuck!]

A little cooling now, in Nino 3.4. I've seen the trend before with subsurface and it supports neutralizing or cooling for the next few weeks to months. 

[raindancewx]

The warm water by Asia seems to spreading East and toward the surface while the warmest waters surface by 120W.

[beavis1729]

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2018/07/possible-el-ni-modoki.html

Those Modoki analogs would be great for the Midwest...especially 1977-78 and 2014-15. 

[raindancewx]

NOAA's PDO value for June dropped from May - usually a good indicator that the JISAO value will drop too.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

30-day/90-day SOI continue to drop as well.

For now, I kind of like a blend of 1963-64, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1994-95, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2012-13 for the winter, with 1968, 1972, 2009 double weighted - you have a warm western half of Nino 3.4 and a somewhat similar NE Pacific and Atlantic to what the models show.

[StormchaserChuck!]

All of this El Nino stuff.. and it's completely going the other way right now. I think people get lost in climatology of yearly cycle perhaps. 

[raindancewx]

You're the one who started the El Nino thread in April. The subsurface is still warm by Nino 3.4, and the surface has been warming. It isn't like last year yet where the warming tendency slowed in April, and ten reversed after May-Jun. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina34.anom.data

 

 3.4    Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
 2017  -0.44  -0.07   0.08   0.32   0.49   0.47   0.37  -0.14  -0.43  -0.52  -0.89  -0.95
 2018  -0.98  -0.77  -0.75  -0.40  -0.08   0.17 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

2018 in Nino 3.4 looks like 2006 and also 2012 if you want recent comparisons.

 2006  -0.92  -0.66  -0.66  -0.21   0.04   0.14   0.12   0.33   0.59   0.74   1.06   1.18
 2012  -0.88  -0.66  -0.57  -0.39  -0.20   0.16   0.36   0.49   0.38   0.31   0.23  -0.22

A small reversal also isn't necessarily impossible either.

2014  -0.50  -0.61  -0.23   0.19   0.44   0.37   0.05  -0.01   0.28   0.48   0.83   0.75

Th question is whether it would be more like 2012 or more like 2014 were it to happen. Since 1950, there haven't been two "fake out" El Nino warms up in Summer in a row (i.e. ONI warming to near 0.5C in Summer before going negative again for winter) - that is why I learn towards El Nino conditions.

[uncle W]

Mei came in at +.469...slightly up from the previous month...a little like 1986 mei...

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

No sign of +PNA in the Pacific anytime soon. It will be interesting to see if a +subsurface wave develops in the coming time. 

Subsurface +3 is gone on TAO maps. (these are much more accurate than CPC). In my experience going back to the early 2000s this is a Neutral look. 

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3

Nino 3 has popped into El Nino territory, while even Nino 1.2, the straggler, is getting dragged up to near Neutral now. MJJ ONI will be near flat Neutral still, I don't think the effects of Nino / near Nino SSTA show up until 3-6 weeks after, so late July-August is the earliest time frame via the weeklies for a sensible weather change. I had this Summer pretty warm in the West (by the ocean) so looks OK so far, the idea was the heat in the Plains/TX/NM/CO would get split in half by the monsoon in late June/July, and you'd have major heat waves (admittedly, thought it'd be NW, not SW coast) in July-Aug for the coasts.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I've seen it before. . the warm pool in Nino 4 may act as a polarity to Nino 3/3.4 down the line

[raindancewx]

The PDO value for June came in at -0.04 for June according to Nate Mantua's/JISAO calculations.

Down from +0.79 last June and down from +0.11 in May.

I find that Nino 1.2 and the PDO are better linked than Nino 3.4 and the PDO, and Nino 1.2 is still cold, so it doesn't shock me that the PDO dropped. The PDO does look like it is reversing with Nino 1.2 warming some recently.

[raindancewx]

Here is what the European has, fully past the Spring predictability barrier. This is what it had last July for comparison.

 

[SnowHole413]

Moderate El Niño starting to look like a likely scernario now

[raindancewx]

If the Canadian is right, you could do a blend of 1992-93, 1996-97, 2014-15, 2015-16 if you ignore the solar minimum...

Or you could do 1953-54, 1963-64, 1991-92, 1992-93, 1993-94, 1994-95, 1996-97, 2006-07, 2014-15, 2015-16 to implement the solar minimum (39 annualized in these years), with a neutral AMO and PDO, and an East-Central Modoki El Nino look.

Year	ONI DJF	AMO N-A	SUN Jul-Jun	ONI DJF(p)	Modoki	PDO N-A	Monsoon
1953	0.3	0.162	9.5	0.0	0.34	-0.79	1.53
1963	0.8	-0.036	29.1	-0.4	0.48	-0.88	5.06
1992	0.2	-0.227	103.3	1.6	0.38	0.61	5.02
1994	1.1	-0.004	36.9	0.0	0.51	-0.37	4.80
1996	-0.4	-0.058	14.5	-0.7	0.22	0.38	6.80
1996	-0.4	-0.058	14.5	-0.7	0.22	0.38	6.80
2006	0.6	0.208	20.1	-0.8	0.14	-0.04	9.42
2009	1.5	0.200	13.2	-0.9	0.77	0.43	3.96
2014	0.6	0.005	90.7	-0.3	0.49	2.07	5.67
2015	2.4	0.211	55.8	0.6	0.32	1.70	5.02
Mean	0.67	0.040	38.76	-0.14	0.39	0.35	5.41

 

[csnavywx]

40 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

More failed products from the ECMWF? What else is new. It runs too warm, consistently.

Yikes, just no.

Sure, it was too warm last year but it has been too cool this year and during 2015's Nino. That's not "too warm, consistently". That insinuates a warm bias in the model, which doesn't exist.

The big difference this year is that the Nina standing wave/forcing has dissipated. It never did last year, even when the EPac got warm for a while. That lends confidence to a warmer solution.

Too early to call a Modoki. A real Modoki will typically have a neutral to negative anomaly in Nino 1+2. That isn't supported by modeling and the ongoing EKW right now, especially with the rare EPAC WWB last month. I know you snow weenies want a weak Modoki Nino, but that's far from being in the bag right now. Remember the rash of "Modoki" calls during 2015? Yeah, that didn't even come close to working out.

[raindancewx]

Jamstec has a very cold winter for the US on its July run, with a pretty healthy peak for the El Nino it has developing (+1.5C)

[raindancewx]

More warm water is coming up still, but not to +0.5C in Nino 3.4 yet.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2

NOAA/CPC/IRI has an El Nino watch, 70% chance of an El Nino in DJF. The brief SOI spike of recent days should reverse soon back toward more El Nino-ish readings.

[fountainguy97]

DIVE DIVE DIVE!!

 

inpressive cooling over the past week. Completely lost all ground made since mid-June and could continue for a little while longer.

 

You can see the growth of cold pool in 1.2 and 3 by end of animation!

 

probably just a blip or delay in our eventual weak warming trend but this sure has put a big hold on the El Niño occurrence into August.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

DIVE DIVE DIVE!!

 

inpressive cooling over the past week. Completely lost all ground made since mid-June and could continue for a little while longer.

 

You can see the growth of cold pool in 1.2 and 3 by end of animation!

 

probably just a blip or delay in our eventual weak warming trend but this sure has put a big hold on the El Niño occurrence into August.

Yea had a fairly decent enhanced trade wind event take place might see another burst if you will as the waters try to re-establish themselves and maybe get a move on the MJO wave. Looks like we should probably get back into motion soon and by about August start to warm things up again? Thinking weak nino the way to go with this one.

[fountainguy97]

36 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea had a fairly decent enhanced trade wind event take place might see another burst if you will as the waters try to re-establish themselves and maybe get a move on the MJO wave. Looks like we should probably get back into motion soon and by about August start to warm things up again? Thinking weak nino the way to go with this one.

Yeah looks like trade winds will slowly relax as we get into August. I’d say by early/mid August we see a steady warming trend happen. Won’t be fast but a slow warming. 

 

At at this point weak niño is a very solid bet. Moderate not out of the question either but not as likely.

 

The question isn’t really will El Niño happen it’s more of how delayed will it be.  It could be mid/late August and we have a weak El Niño or very very close to it.  Or it could be much later.

 

 Either way weak/mod El Niño for 2018-19 winter is a good guess. For those of you tracking that little fact 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah looks like trade winds will slowly relax as we get into August. I’d say by early/mid August we see a steady warming trend happen. Won’t be fast but a slow warming. 

 

At at this point weak niño is a very solid bet. Moderate not out of the question either but not as likely.

 

The question isn’t really will El Niño happen it’s more of how delayed will it be.  It could be mid/late August and we have a weak El Niño or very very close to it.  Or it could be much later.

 

 Either way weak/mod El Niño for end of 2018-19 winter is a good guess. 

Yea only reason Im not sold on moderate status is because we keep getting this to fight back with upwelling taking place on the eastern side, hence why i feel many like the idea of modoki, but we should see how things go as we move along the MJO has been getting "stuck" it seems at times causing these enhancements to occur. Ill take warm neutral to weak nino this winter tends to bring more moisture into our area (mid atlantic) for winter time and just need it to link up with some cold patterns and we are in business.

 

Warmth seems to be building again in the western Pac so we may have the warming from this into early winter then another maybe into end of winter early spring time?

[fountainguy97]

27 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea only reason Im not sold on moderate status is because we keep getting this to fight back with upwelling taking place on the eastern side, hence why i feel many like the idea of modoki, but we should see how things go as we move along the MJO has been getting "stuck" it seems at times causing these enhancements to occur. Ill take warm neutral to weak nino this winter tends to bring more moisture into our area (mid atlantic) for winter time and just need it to link up with some cold patterns and we are in business.

 

Warmth seems to be building again in the western Pac so we may have the warming from this into early winter then another maybe into end of winter early spring time?

Yeah Modoki is possible with 1.2 still well into Niña territory.   

 

You could say a lot of our patterns have been “in a rut.” ENSO is no exception. I think we will see a lot of erratic SST jumps for the next few weeks. Once we get some movement in the MJO then we will see a more steady trend in SST.  

 

Its really impossible to say but we should slowly, erratically work our way up to near/weak niño status. I’d expect some staying power to materialize as we get into fall to hold us in niño territory into the winter. 

 

Most climate models show niño holding into 2019.

 

as far as when the surges of warming occur... your guess is as good as mine haha

[raindancewx]

The cooling map of SSTs isn't a super dramatic move away from El Nino, since the water temperatures in Nino 1.2 are still cooling this time of year, Nino 3.4 should be 27.5C this time of year, v. 28C a month ago going by the weeklies.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is making a comeback, which increases Weak El Nino chances because of yearly trend (I'm impressed by this, re: subsurface +burst). 

[raindancewx]

Larry Cosgrove was talking about flat neutral gradually warming to an El Nino in Fall, that looks pretty decent now. I thought we'd be a bit warmer by now, +0.5C, I think July will be +0.2C or +0.3C in Nino 3.4.

Without looking, a blend of 2006 (x2), 2009 (x4), 2012 (x3), 2014 (x1) might be a decent easy idea for the winter in terms of the sun and the oceans. I think a much weaker version of 2009-10 (in terms of OLR/Modoki setup) with low solar activity is a decent bet.

[StormchaserChuck!]

This in the North Pacific/Alaska looks like a good +subsurface warming burst coming. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

[raindancewx]

It is interesting looking at what the CFS shows v. what the Canadian shows for DJF.

The warm-tongue in the PDO zone exists on both models, which is not consistent with a positive PDO, despite the warm ring around Alaska/Canada. Huge difference though in where the El Nino is centered - 120W or 140W, and whether the Atlantic stays relatively cold or not.

Neutral PDO or even somewhat negative PDO with an El Nino would be an interesting winter. You can see where the warm tongue is above v. on the schematic from JISAO below.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Precip is way above average around 30N. As long as that persists, that part of PDO should be warm. 

[raindancewx]

Re-warming this week on the weeklies.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3

Nino 1.2 still stubbornly cold. Worth noting - last year this about the time Nino 1.2 crashed like crazy.

 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2

A somewhat warmer Nino 1.2 in August (say -0.1 instead of -0.5?) would favor (weakly) a colder interior West and NE in August. Also favors dryness in the SE and wetness in the northern Rockies, especially Wyoming.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/18/2018 at 6:03 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Yea only reason Im not sold on moderate status is because we keep getting this to fight back with upwelling taking place on the eastern side, hence why i feel many like the idea of modoki, but we should see how things go as we move along the MJO has been getting "stuck" it seems at times causing these enhancements to occur. Ill take warm neutral to weak nino this winter tends to bring more moisture into our area (mid atlantic) for winter time and just need it to link up with some cold patterns and we are in business.

 

Warmth seems to be building again in the western Pac so we may have the warming from this into early winter then another maybe into end of winter early spring time?

Mid Atl should root for a moderate el nino since Miller B cyclogenesis would be prevalent in the absence of a potent STJ.