Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

So this cold pool around -200m may stop the El Nino altogether

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Trending away from El Nino

[frd]

3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Trending away from El Nino

Seems that a weak El Nino,  or at least warm neutral should be possible. The Alantic should cooperate. 

 

 

[raindancewx]

If you look at the first post in this discussion, it has the mid-June maps for 2017 & 2018. There is far more warm water at the subsurface, and far less cold water now. In 2012, ONI did reach near El Nino conditions in Fall, JAS to SON, before falling off to near La Nina conditions in winter (-0.4 in DJF).

ONI values in MAM (-0.4 +/-0.2) were similar to the following years:

If ONI is -0.1 or -0.2 in AMJ, after being -0.4 in MAM, years within 0.2 for both periods include:

1962, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1986, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2012

June 2018 is pretty hot in the middle of the US (cooling off quickly here after the big rains yesterday), cool FL, NE, NW. That looks like the opposite of 1967, and similar to 2001 and 2012. Going forward, the colder Atlantic in June (y/y) favors a colder July v. last year in the East and SW, with the warmer Nino 3.4 favoring enhanced moisture in the SW (AZ especially). The SOI was -9.5 last June, so that won't be too different from this year. 

My hunch is we get an El Nino, but it starts in July or August, and then it ends fairly early, say January/February, it will be the flip of 2016-17 (Modoki El Nino, not Modoki La Nina, colder Atlantic ring by Africa, not warm, near neutral PDO, lower solar) with maybe near exact opposite behavior. The La Nina that ended in March started in September. Something like a blend of 1963, 1996, 2009 is my idea for later Summer and Fall, maybe Winter too.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Furthermore, this subsurface warmth building in the west (~140E) is a sea-saw to La Nina conditions in time. 

(I cant get it to animate.)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

[raindancewx]

Nino 3.4 went positive for the first time since last August. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3

 

The European has had an El Nino for two runs in a row now, arguably a bit stronger this run. I added the yellow line as an approximate middle ensemble.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

If it stays at +Neutral/weak El Nino range, A lot more options globally, where I think a stronger Nino would have narrowed it down quite a bit in this post-2013 pattern.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looking at this graph the tendency may be La Nina for another 1-2 years. Aesthetics are 60% chance it falls in the Fall I think, although it will be hard to cool the subsurface disregarding Weak La Nina chances. 

SOI is also up since 1998.

[ThisIsNotSparta]

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Looking at this graph the tendency may be La Nina for another 1-2 years. Aesthetics are 60% chance it falls in the Fall I think, although it will be hard to cool the subsurface disregarding Weak La Nina chances. 

SOI is also up since 1998.

You can see the anomalously westerly winds popping up along with warmer SSTs, though. The spring barrier has passed, and it looks like El Nino will be in place in the winter.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I can see more evenening out of the 2013-2016 El Nino. There's probably a really strong El Nino coming up in the next 10 years. 

 

[raindancewx]

I'm on the Nate Mantua mailing list for the JISAO PDO (monthly) values. The PDO value for May was +0.11, same as April, up from -0.05 in March. Last May was +0.88

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Moving into Weak El Nino territory now. You guys are probably right about Weak to Moderate El Nino. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

healthy - forming from the center

 

[raindancewx]

Any of you see the proposed new NZ teleconnection index?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04722-7

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2018/ensodisc.pdf

[raindancewx]

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

>1*c rise from March-June (not >1 March).. 2009, 1997. It's 6/7 going into reverse ENSO

 

2009 is a good analog as far as the 1948-2018 dataset goes

[raindancewx]

^^ You have to be careful with that, the anomalies are all centered on 30 year periods that change every five years. Older events warmed up a lot too.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Global yearly cycle is consistent though.. I'd be less certain about analogs pre-1920s

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Negative PDO is really becoming a thing. Maybe +Neutral/Weak Nino max.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html#picture

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is becoming weak in the central/west.. ENSO Neutral is my call. Winter more likely -PNA now I think. 

[raindancewx]

 Nino 3.4
 1950  24.55  25.06  25.87  26.28  26.18  26.46  26.29  25.88  25.74  25.69  25.47  25.29
 1951  25.24  25.71  26.90  27.58  27.92  27.73  27.60  27.02  27.23  27.20  27.25  26.91
 1952  26.67  26.74  27.17  27.80  27.79  27.18  26.53  26.30  26.36  26.26  25.92  26.21
 1953  26.74  27.00  27.57  28.04  28.28  28.12  27.43  26.94  27.01  26.87  26.88  27.00
 1954  26.98  27.03  26.90  26.64  27.12  26.80  26.11  25.43  25.12  25.23  25.57  25.26
 1955  25.61  25.81  26.22  26.60  26.66  26.55  26.15  25.51  25.28  24.41  24.25  24.57
 1956  25.34  25.76  26.46  26.85  27.13  26.81  26.23  25.68  25.73  25.75  25.56  25.71
 1957  26.04  26.54  27.46  28.23  28.55  28.36  28.17  27.69  27.44  27.42  27.62  27.90
 1958  28.33  28.24  28.27  28.27  28.31  27.99  27.32  26.85  26.40  26.45  26.75  26.62
 1959  27.07  27.18  27.47  27.88  27.70  27.37  26.44  26.09  25.92  26.24  26.04  26.18
 1960  26.27  26.29  26.98  27.49  27.68  27.24  26.88  26.70  26.44  26.22  26.26  26.22
 1961  26.23  26.56  26.94  27.36  27.75  27.67  26.89  26.19  25.78  25.71  26.07  25.97
 1962  25.96  26.19  26.80  27.13  27.05  27.08  26.76  26.33  25.94  25.97  25.75  25.67
 1963  25.77  26.22  27.18  27.78  27.63  27.62  27.78  27.48  27.40  27.36  27.47  27.62
 1964  27.34  27.13  27.02  26.95  26.82  26.59  26.33  25.60  25.32  25.37  25.26  25.23
 1965  25.66  26.19  26.94  27.38  27.99  28.09  27.90  27.97  28.01  28.17  28.12  27.96
 1966  27.67  27.55  28.21  28.16  27.55  27.64  27.33  26.48  26.27  26.22  26.23  26.03
 1967  25.88  26.11  26.50  26.74  27.35  27.47  26.97  26.44  25.86  25.97  26.08  25.95
 1968  25.69  25.68  26.33  27.10  27.19  27.88  27.58  27.01  26.72  26.75  27.20  27.27
 1969  27.50  27.86  27.82  28.13  28.29  27.69  27.08  27.02  27.15  27.34  27.10  26.98
 1970  26.83  26.95  27.14  27.74  27.63  27.04  26.21  25.60  25.65  25.60  25.57  25.27
 1971  24.81  25.18  25.92  26.63  26.95  26.60  26.13  25.75  25.72  25.47  25.56  25.37
 1972  25.62  26.30  27.09  27.89  28.32  28.18  28.14  27.95  27.95  28.26  28.61  28.69
 1973  28.34  27.95  27.55  27.24  26.96  26.55  25.76  25.22  25.06  24.73  24.33  24.33
 1974  24.46  25.10  25.84  26.46  26.64  26.53  26.39  26.33  26.08  25.78  25.61  25.63
 1975  26.09  26.07  26.19  26.86  26.80  26.23  25.90  25.33  25.05  24.89  25.05  24.67
 1976  24.54  25.49  26.46  26.88  27.20  27.35  27.13  26.98  27.02  27.46  27.41  27.09
 1977  27.32  27.13  27.47  27.44  27.72  27.74  27.38  26.85  27.12  27.35  27.19  27.29
 1978  27.17  27.00  27.09  27.12  27.20  27.02  26.74  26.07  26.01  26.25  26.33  26.54
 1979  26.41  26.53  27.27  27.83  27.69  27.43  26.82  26.75  26.99  26.83  26.99  27.11
 1980  27.08  26.97  27.31  27.75  28.01  27.94  27.23  26.48  26.44  26.46  26.60  26.65
 1981  26.18  26.11  26.64  27.29  27.36  27.27  26.65  26.33  26.53  26.42  26.29  26.40
 1982  26.67  26.59  27.41  28.03  28.39  28.26  27.66  27.58  28.21  28.71  28.62  28.80
 1983  28.89  28.69  28.66  28.77  28.84  28.27  27.18  26.59  26.20  25.56  25.41  25.57
 1984  25.88  26.56  26.77  27.14  27.20  26.83  26.79  26.61  26.38  26.04  25.52  25.25
 1985  25.38  26.03  26.50  26.64  26.90  26.81  26.56  26.30  26.02  26.23  26.33  26.19
 1986  25.89  26.05  26.87  27.49  27.40  27.42  27.18  27.17  27.24  27.53  27.71  27.72
 1987  27.68  27.88  28.27  28.39  28.56  28.65  28.59  28.42  28.36  27.96  27.77  27.54
 1988  27.45  27.03  27.38  27.38  26.68  25.99  25.56  25.66  25.72  24.82  24.65  24.63
 1989  24.58  25.28  26.08  26.74  27.06  27.14  26.72  26.33  26.42  26.32  26.25  26.46
 1990  26.56  26.96  27.33  27.90  28.02  27.64  27.38  27.07  26.94  26.93  26.81  26.95
 1991  27.03  27.07  27.32  28.01  28.20  28.25  28.05  27.53  27.14  27.58  27.90  28.29
 1992  28.38  28.53  28.66  29.02  28.98  28.30  27.51  26.91  26.65  26.42  26.42  26.44
 1993  26.69  27.16  27.67  28.41  28.71  28.08  27.52  26.99  27.07  26.77  26.71  26.76
 1994  26.64  26.81  27.39  28.08  28.24  28.04  27.54  27.38  27.20  27.47  27.81  27.85
 1995  27.57  27.49  27.75  28.10  27.82  27.59  27.08  26.23  25.88  25.84  25.60  25.65
 1996  25.69  25.89  26.67  27.35  27.55  27.29  26.85  26.64  26.27  26.27  26.29  25.95
 1997  26.01  26.38  27.04  27.98  28.58  28.82  28.86  28.75  28.85  29.08  29.12  28.89
 1998  28.93  28.78  28.62  28.60  28.51  27.34  26.30  25.57  25.46  25.25  25.24  24.91
 1999  24.86  25.43  26.33  26.70  26.79  26.53  26.13  25.63  25.63  25.48  25.12  24.86
 2000  24.78  25.21  26.30  26.95  27.07  26.94  26.63  26.37  26.20  26.02  25.92  25.68
 2001  25.81  26.12  26.80  27.33  27.60  27.54  27.25  26.80  26.52  26.57  26.33  26.19
 2002  26.39  26.71  27.29  27.84  28.24  28.44  28.03  27.72  27.81  27.96  28.17  27.97
 2003  27.15  27.39  27.65  27.68  27.32  27.44  27.50  27.11  26.99  27.14  27.04  27.03
 2004  26.81  26.98  27.40  27.89  28.00  27.86  27.78  27.62  27.53  27.44  27.36  27.34
 2005  27.21  27.11  27.73  28.08  28.24  27.77  27.06  26.80  26.68  26.65  26.11  25.68
 2006  25.63  26.08  26.57  27.50  27.85  27.73  27.30  27.16  27.32  27.41  27.69  27.74
 2007  27.24  26.88  27.10  27.50  27.46  27.37  26.71  26.14  25.61  25.32  25.17  25.01
 2008  24.86  25.08  26.07  26.83  27.09  27.04  26.99  26.72  26.47  26.37  26.25  25.74
 2009  25.66  25.96  26.59  27.47  27.99  28.04  27.78  27.42  27.40  27.60  28.16  28.34
 2010  28.07  28.01  28.18  28.20  27.71  27.04  26.22  25.47  25.12  25.03  25.06  25.00
 2011  25.00  25.64  26.36  27.05  27.41  27.35  26.87  26.21  25.92  25.67  25.52  25.54
 2012  25.67  26.08  26.67  27.32  27.61  27.75  27.54  27.32  27.10  26.98  26.86  26.34
 2013  26.01  26.24  27.03  27.57  27.53  27.30  26.91  26.47  26.54  26.52  26.56  26.43
 2014  26.05  26.14  27.00  27.90  28.25  27.96  27.23  26.82  27.01  27.16  27.46  27.31
 2015  27.05  27.17  27.75  28.52  28.85  28.90  28.75  28.79  28.93  29.08  29.42  29.26
 2016  29.11  29.01  28.90  28.72  28.23  27.69  26.82  26.28  26.14  25.98  25.94  26.10
 2017  26.12  26.67  27.32  28.03  28.30  28.06  27.54  26.70  26.29  26.15  25.74  25.62
 2018  25.57  25.97  26.49  27.31  27.71 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

Year to date, for SST (actual) figures in Nino 3.4, 2012, 2006, 1996 are pretty close for Jan-May, within 0.2C of 2018, and 2009 is pretty close too. We'll see what June brings. A blend of winters 1996-97, 2006-07, 2012-13 would actually be pretty cold here.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina34.data

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Weak Subsurface.. ENSO Neutral, maybe some cold pushes in the Fall I think with this global pattern (2016-2018 La Nina, 2007-2018 La Nina)

[raindancewx]

Some very warm subsurface waters are nearing the surface by 120W.

[raindancewx]

The Canadian Model update (6/30) has El Nino conditions for July through next Spring, with an NDJ peak. The model has shifted to more a ideal Modoki El Nino look, with Nino 1.2 much colder than 3.4

[StormchaserChuck!]

Progressing east to west, such as the Northern Hemisphere skew. This is the pattern right now. El Nino is not certain (it's already more west-based). 

 

[raindancewx]

I think it will be some kind of anti-2016-17 event. The 2016-17 event was considered a La Nina from July-Jan, but featured extreme warmth at times in Nino 1.2 I think 2018-19 will be considered an El Nino, with cold in Nino 1.2, and unusual (La Nina-like) warmth to the west of Nino 3.4 near Asia. I've been toying with calling these events "El-Transgender" or something since they have aspects of the boy and the girl in some sense rather than being really Neutral.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5

Pretty significant warming from May to June according to the ECMWF while we wait for ONI from CPC.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

2018    1     0.01     -0.17      -0.16
2018    2     0.29      0.09      -0.11
2018    3     0.46      0.44       0.51
2018    4     0.58      0.62       0.80
2018    5     0.72      0.75       0.88
2018    6     0.77      0.81       0.87

[StormchaserChuck!]

Thermocline's high.. nice -PNA now with cooling trend vs normal wave pattern. Trend is we'll stay below El Nino, somewhere around 0.0 by the peak time I think. 

[raindancewx]

ONI came in at -0.1C for AMJ. June was +0.1C

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt