Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[raindancewx]

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

For some reason when I went back in the thread to try and find your analysis of the November run of the jamstec, I was unable to find it. Very wise to use normals of 1951-2010 instead of 1895-2010 or 1981-2010. This way you maximize the cold of the 1960s and 1970s into all data sets, wouldn't want to skew anything.  The CFS has been masterful lately. As a matter of fact I think it was only about 10 to 15ﾟ too warm in November. I just hope Palm trees don't start to sprout here in Michigan with this super hot Winter. Nothing says "super hot" like 0.5° Celsius above normal. I can't believe some people in this thread are implying that you're grasping for any straw that will make the North and East warm.

Here are my analogs for Detroit, for 12/1-12/12, since you seem to live there, for average highs, from October, go back in the earlier in the thread if you want to see

1953 - 49.2
1976 - 28.5
1986 - 36.8
1994 - 43.5
1994 - 43.5
2006 - 37.8
Average - 39.8

2018 - 38.3

I'll be here waiting for yours.

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Here are my analogs for Detroit, for 12/1-12/12, since you seem to live there, for average highs, from October, go back in the earlier in the thread if you want to see

1953 - 49.2
1976 - 28.5
1986 - 36.8
1994 - 43.5
1994 - 43.5
2006 - 37.8
Average - 39.8

2018 - 38.3

I'll be here waiting for yours.

Oh absolutely the next 7 to 10 days will be warmer than normal.  No argument from me on that, as a matter of fact I've been bracing for it for a while as the warm signal has been there. When looking at the CFS it's hard to tell though because it defaults to torching until it gets very close. It forecast a top 20 warmest November on record and instead we had a top 20 coldest November on record. I do believe December will end up warmer than normal however we should already be at a positive departure according to the CFS. I certainly have my doubts about a warm Winter as a whole. And for the record I am far enough North that a mild Winter does not scare away my snow chances (just leads to less snowpack than I like)

[stadiumwave]

Went through all the El Nino years since 1979 & the closest matches for since October 1 until present is 2002 & 2014...and it's not even close. What does it mean? It may mean nothing...I dunno. It may be a meaningless fact...but interesting nonetheless. 2002 is the #1 year

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Went through all the El Nino years since 1979 & the closest matches for since October 1 until present is 2002 & 2014...and it's not even close. What does it mean? It may mean nothing...I dunno. It may be a meaningless fact...but interesting nonetheless. 2002 is the #1 year

Sensible weather wise 2018-19 has absolutely mirrored 2014-15. Obviously it's still extremely early, technically it's not even officially Winter, but 2014-15 started with a cold and somewhat snowy November (this November was snowier) then December was mild, certainly not a torch, but for whatever reason it just would not snow like it normally does in the lakes. January turned cold with frequent snows (although nothing big), then February began with a huge snowstorm followed by record cold.

[raindancewx]

Nate Mantua sent out the November 2018 value. -0.05, down from +0.26 in October. Back to 1930, there are not many El Nino years with the PDO around -0.05 in November. One of my problems with 1963 is the PDO went to -2 in November of that year. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

January    0.70

February  0.37

March      -0.05

April         0.11

May          0.11

June         -0.04

July          0.11

August      0.18

September 0.09

October      0.26

November  -0.05

 

These are the closest El Nino PDO transitions to Fall 2018 -

PDO	Sept	Oct	Nov
2018	0.09	0.26	-0.05
1958	0.29	0.01	-0.18
2009	0.52	0.27	-0.40
1972	0.17	0.11	0.57
1951	-0.08	-0.32	-0.28
1968	0.06	-0.34	-0.44
1982	0.84	0.37	-0.25

 

If you compare to Nov 2014, which had a +1.72 PDO value, some pretty obvious differences visually. Given that the whole Northern Hemisphere had warm oceans, except the AMO cold-ring by Africa, probably worth watching what zone does the next few months too.

The warmth by Japan keeps increasing, which is why the PDO dropped from Oct to Nov. No cold tongue yet, and two warm blobs, not one.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looking at the subsurface data, this one is probably going to peak in January or February. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is called +AAM, late blooming Nino's. 

[raindancewx]

Month to date, a lot of areas in the Northern Plains are running 5-8F above normal through Dec 15. Bismarck has a high of 35.6F for 12/1-12/15. The 1951-2010 average high there for 12/1-12/15 is 28.4F. So +7.2F so far.

Subsurface still looks a lot healthier than 2014 to me.

No imminent La Nina development like 2015-16 either.

2006 -

[raindancewx]

Also...December looks like 1997 so far. Not easy to get a cold NW in an El Nino December with the rest of the country looking like it does.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

12 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is called +AAM, late blooming Nino's. 

What effects will this have down the road?

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Also...December looks like 1997 so far. Not easy to get a cold NW in an El Nino December with the rest of the country looking like it does.

In no way shape or form will this season be remotely the same as 97/98 aka the strongest Nino on record. 

Current atmospheric state still resembles a Nina. 

[Zach’s Pop]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

In no way shape or form will this season be remotely the same as 97/98 aka the strongest Nino on record. 

Current atmospheric state still resembles a Nina. 

He gets delirious in his efforts to make Boston look like the Fiji Islands this winter. Comparing this Niño to the strongest on record is laughable and really only strengthens the argument he doesn’t know what he is talking about 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

6 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

What effects will this have down the road?

It could lead to a multi-year Nino. +AAM is basically the Earth slowing down. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

44 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It could lead to a multi-year Nino. +AAM is basically the Earth slowing down. 

Wow. Fascinating. I can see next winter being a dud. Multi-Year Ninos usually have that one dud.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

2 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Wow. Fascinating. I can see next winter being a dud. Multi-Year Ninos usually have that one dud.

You can see the symmetry between the + and - in the map (AAM). Pretty fascinating because it's only a composite of 3 years. 

[raindancewx]

13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

In no way shape or form will this season be remotely the same as 97/98 aka the strongest Nino on record. 

Current atmospheric state still resembles a Nina. 

It may resemble a Modoki La Nina, where Nino 3/ Nino 1.2 is warmer than 3.4...which is essentially a colder version of 1997. Hence the map looking close. I'll be here while you guys find a better El Nino match to Dec 1 to Dec 15. Go on. I dare you. Here is the link - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

It sure as hell doesn't look like 2002, 2009 or any of the other Modoki El Ninos in December.

It actually is similar to 1997 in at least one way - the right circle is warmer than the left circle. That's not a Modoki. Look at 2009 for comparison.

I'd call it six weeks in a row of looking like 1997 at this point. 

11 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said:

He gets delirious in his efforts to make Boston look like the Fiji Islands this winter. Comparing this Niño to the strongest on record is laughable and really only strengthens the argument he doesn’t know what he is talking about 

How is that bottom 20 snowfall in Boston back to 1892 through 12/16 working out for you so far? At this point, 1997-98 would be a massive improvement for Boston for snowfall, already over four inches by this point in 1997. The low-solar El Nino average for Boston, in years with under an inch through 12/15 is 30.5" back to 1892, and only one year got to over 40". I'm still waiting on your response as to what you'll do if the NE is warm in December like I've been saying since October because the first CPC warm wave has verified pretty well, and they have more coming. 

 

 

[raindancewx]

So...January actually looks like a very difficult forecast to me. I'm almost certain what I had will be wrong now, but there are two or three ways it can go wrong. The SOI is +8.7 for Dec 1-16. If the figure finishes around that level (or higher) its unprecedented in an El Nino back to 1931. There is way around it though, you can take the numerous La Nina Decembers, with a -SOI (it should be positive in a La Nina), and flip those bad boys. How does that look? Well...using La Nina -SOI Decembers with a mean of -8.5...

La Nina	DecSOI
2017	-6.3
1999	-6.5
2005	-6.7
1942	-7.4
1983	-8.1
1984	-8.8
2016	-9.4
2011	-10.2
1964	-10.9
1971	-10.9

The issue is, the subsurface (assuming the warmth continues to weaken in Dec) does not favor anything like the map above. January 1998 actually looks a lot like the SOI out of phase with La Nina composite, and Nov 1-Dec 15 2018 looks like Nov 1-Dec 15 1997, so you have to wonder, maybe the warm map would work in any year where the ENSO & SOI phase are out of alignment? Like I say, difficult month. If the SOI crashes hard the rest of the month, all of this becomes moot, but it doesn't look negative short term.

[Zach’s Pop]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It may resemble a Modoki La Nina, where Nino 3/ Nino 1.2 is warmer than 3.4...which is essentially a colder version of 1997. Hence the map looking close. I'll be here while you guys find a better El Nino match to Dec 1 to Dec 15. Go on. I dare you. Here is the link - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

It sure as hell doesn't look like 2002, 2009 or any of the other Modoki El Ninos in December.

It actually is similar to 1997 in at least one way - the right circle is warmer than the left circle. That's not a Modoki. Look at 2009 for comparison.

I'd call it six weeks in a row of looking like 1997 at this point. 

How is that bottom 20 snowfall in Boston back to 1892 through 12/16 working out for you so far? At this point, 1997-98 would be a massive improvement for Boston for snowfall, already over four inches by this point in 1997. The low-solar El Nino average for Boston, in years with under an inch through 12/15 is 30.5" back to 1892, and only one year got to over 40". I'm still waiting on your response as to what you'll do if the NE is warm in December like I've been saying since October because the first CPC warm wave has verified pretty well, and they have more coming. 

 

 

Boston could get over 40” of snow in a three week period easily this winter. In fact I bet they do. Hopefully Albuquerque gets 4” of snow the entire winter. 

[Hoosier]

26 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said:

Boston could get over 40” of snow in a three week period easily this winter. In fact I bet they do. Hopefully Albuquerque gets 4” of snow the entire winter. 

If my research is right, Boston has officially gotten 40"+ in a 21 day period in just 7 different years (1978, 1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2011, 2015).  Tells me 2 things... it is not that common but Boston has been spoiled rotten recently. 

[snowfan789]

Raindance - You seem to forecast and quasi-forecast a lot but don’t seem to hold yourself accountable very often. I don’t have a strong personal investment in your recent skirmishes here with northeasterners as I live in Colorado and don’t claim to have the expertise to make seasonal forecasts myself. Still, I’ve lurked in this forum and closely followed the weather long enough to say that you really ought to critique yourself if you insist on prognosticating. For starters, he’s your temp forecast from last winter vs actual temps.

 

[Zach’s Pop]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If my research is right, Boston has officially gotten 40"+ in a 21 day period in just 7 different years (1978, 1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2011, 2015).  Tells me 2 things... it is not that common but Boston has been spoiled rotten recently. 

Yes I realize it is rare. But January and February have always been favored for the northeast to be the snowiest months of this El Niño. For raindancewx to be pounding his chest on December 17th and comparing this El Niño to 97-98 is laughable and stupid. 

[Great Snow 1717]

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If my research is right, Boston has officially gotten 40"+ in a 21 day period in just 7 different years (1978, 1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2011, 2015).  Tells me 2 things... it is not that common but Boston has been spoiled rotten recently. 

You are correct about the Boston area being spoiled. And that is leading to some people believing that every winter is going to be cold and snowy. As you know, Boston's winter history is littered with many winters that were duds.  At some point there will probably be a string of winters that aren't all that good. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The North Pacific pattern continues to be surprising for an ENSO subsurface warming trend for the next week+. I wonder if SOI is once again a more accurate measurement than other? (it was like 19 of the last 19)

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The North Pacific pattern continues to be surprising for an ENSO subsurface warming trend for the next week+. I wonder if SOI is once again a more accurate measurement than other? (it was like 19 of the last 19)

Still a +SOI with subsurface warming? Weird. 

[raindancewx]

On 12/16/2018 at 10:37 PM, snowfan789 said:

Raindance - You seem to forecast and quasi-forecast a lot but don’t seem to hold yourself accountable very often. I don’t have a strong personal investment in your recent skirmishes here with northeasterners as I live in Colorado and don’t claim to have the expertise to make seasonal forecasts myself. Still, I’ve lurked in this forum and closely followed the weather long enough to say that you really ought to critique yourself if you insist on prognosticating. For starters, he’s your temp forecast from last winter vs actual temps.

 

 

I try to hold myself accountable on my personal twitter, I do a pretty objective look at the end of the each forecast period but this thread for El Nino, no one cares about that here.

Listen, I don't have a problem being criticized when I'm wrong, what pisses me off is I seem to get more crap when I'm right, or even partly right then when I'm wrong which makes no sense. I scale by temps and precip. So I had some areas right on one scale, but you're right it wasn't good overall. I picked six of my eight driest years in the last 100 years for 2017-18 in the Southwest and it was still too wet, Amarillo had no rain or snow for over five months last year, and obviously it was still way too cold. I will say though, the East ended up being less bad than I thought it would last year in February once that warm up arrived in Feb 2018. I was leaning heavily on 1932 and 2012 to make the West cold by the Great Basin, and that pattern only showed up in late February 2018. I'd say I had 40-50% of the right anomalies for temps and 60-70% for precip in terms of the anomaly being in the right direction, but I'd still call it mostly worthless overall. I was pretty happy with my local-only Fall 2018 if you'd like a counter example of one I had right - the link from Aug is embedded.

My forecast method is regression based, so when I'm off, I'm really off, because my methods are input sensitive. I kept underestimating the La Nina last year, and the years I had were a basin-wide La Nina, not an East-based one, and that all completely screwed up the interactions between the variables. This year, I've had better inputs - see below.All that being said, this is what I had for Dec 2018 from 10/12 v reality (I think its linked here page 11 or 12) - and keep in mind, the rest of the month looks pretty warm even though some kind of cool down will come eventually.

 

 

Chuck's method, using the subsurface produced very similar results, like I said on 12/1 - will probably beat what I had from October, although it won't be as cold as shown in the SW.

Like I said earlier, I'm expecting the blend I have to be wrong in January now, since the SOI is running around +10 for December.

Anyway - here are the weeklies. Looks closest to 1994 this week.

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 14NOV2018     22.2 0.6     25.8 0.8     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.9
 21NOV2018     22.6 0.8     26.3 1.3     27.9 1.3     29.6 1.0
 28NOV2018     22.5 0.5     26.3 1.2     27.8 1.2     29.6 1.1
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2

 14DEC1994     23.4 0.7     25.9 0.8     27.9 1.3     29.5 1.1

[raindancewx]

22 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said:

Yes I realize it is rare. But January and February have always been favored for the northeast to be the snowiest months of this El Niño. For raindancewx to be pounding his chest on December 17th and comparing this El Niño to 97-98 is laughable and stupid. 

Let's try something. The sun is yellow. I'll await for you to tell me how it is purple.

In the meantime, the temperatures of the US for 11/1-12/15 look dead on to 1997. Why is that? Well, subsurface?

The subsurface was +1.02 in Dec 1997 for 100W-180W: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Most El Ninos weaken from Nov to Dec based on that link, and we were at +1.36 in November...so guess what year we'll be near in Dec?

 

 

 

[OSUmetstud]

Any year can mimic another year for a little while. The hemispheric state is very different than 97 98. This Nino is pretty weak. That one was the strongest of all time by some measures. It was also the most east-based. Look at the GoAK trough so far in 97 98 compared to now. This is what happened the rest of the winter in 97 98. A very east based GoAK vortex flooding the US with PAC flow as a result of the strong east based Nino forcing. 

12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2

10DEC1997     26.7 4.2     28.7 3.6     29.2 2.7     29.4 0.9

Given these anomalies it seems pretty unlikely that Nino 1 2 will produce sustained tropical convection (greater than 26c) through the winter to force such an east PAC trough. 

 

[The Iceman]

On 12/16/2018 at 9:54 PM, Hoosier said:

If my research is right, Boston has officially gotten 40"+ in a 21 day period in just 7 different years (1978, 1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2011, 2015).  Tells me 2 things... it is not that common but Boston has been spoiled rotten recently. 

3 - with 6 of the 7 occurring in the last 30 years, these kind of things will occur more frequently as precipitation during winter in the mid latitudes increase with climate change...

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This subsurface wave is quickly moving east, so lesser chances of this carrying over I think. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

20 Dec 2018	1012.71	1007.00	10.33	8.53	1.91
19 Dec 2018	1013.25	1008.05	7.68	8.40	1.63
18 Dec 2018	1014.64	1006.70	21.90	7.89	1.49
17 Dec 2018	1013.56	1006.50	17.33	6.56

After a significant drop in the SOI, a slight rebound happened today.