Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, weathafella said:

In fairness, BOS is on record with 0.1 because the guy they use in Winthrop as the official measurer literally forgot the midnight reading and then it rained.   It’s pretty much assumed the actual number was probably 2.5 or so based in spotters in the area.  I live 10 miles away and received 6.3 inches for this areas earliest decent snow since 2012.  So you may be right in the end but using a bad measure (DC/BWI/NYC/the Boston area) got a lot more snow than expected at this point.  It’s been cold since mid October ala 2002.  The upcoming patten is not unlike December 2002 despite the silly 5 day snapshot charts.  I bet if you run 12/5-20 you’d get the same results you above.  We’ll see the results in the end. 

I love to debate...but I have given up the goat on that one.

I'll be laying in the weeds to post bump over the next few months.

[thunderbolt]

17 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You keep saying I will be wrong. What if I'm right? Boston is at 0.1" officially. Doesn't look wrong to me. Boston has never had more than 60 inches in a low-solar El Nino back to 1892. I documented that extensively, and most of those years, all but two, 14/16, are under 45".  1977, 2002, 2014, all had high solar. 1995 was a La Nina with low solar. It isn't the right pattern for Boston to get heavy snow. 

I've mentioned before the SOI in Sept-Nov is a good indicator for December. Looks good to me! 

SOI	Sept	Oct	Nov
1953	-13.0	-0.3	-2.7
2018	-8.5	2.6	-0.9

Does reality matter to you or not? I'll be waiting for your answer at the end of the month when the NE comes in warm. You still haven't answered whether you think its even possible for the NE to be warm in December in an El Nino, even though almost all of the recent ones are. Dirty little secret? The Cold El Ninos were already cold in the NE by this point. I know you don't care about reality, so this won't matter to you, but here is what the cold El Ninos look like in the NE by this point in Dec -

Depending on the area, I think just about the whole NE is +1 to +5, given what is coming later in the month, against 1951-2010 highs.

 

Why don't you just say + 1 to + 15  it's  a  good way to cover your ass  and I will say -3 to +5

[weathafella]

12/5 values

enso 1:  0.22

enso 2: 0.46

enso 3: 0.92

enso 3.4: 1.15

enso 4: 1.23

modoki: 0.63

[raindancewx]

9 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

Why don't you just say + 1 to + 15  it's  a  good way to cover your ass  and I will say -3 to +5

Why are you people so emotionally invested in this? Don't you have something better to do with your time like a functional adult would? The joke about this is all you seem to love what Ray put out, but he used two of the same analogs I did, 1953 and 1976, just a month later, and he said in October that he read my outlook and disagreed with it, which is fine. But it's like....you're arguing over nonsense given that he liked 40% of the years I used in my forecast - 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006. For 12/1-12/6 Boston is 39.8F in 2018 for the average temperature. In my years, Boston is 41.3F. I don't get all the hate, I'm doing well so far. See for yourselves. Ray had 1953, 1976, 1977 which is also close, 37.3F since he used similar years.  It's not as close as mine so far, but its not bad, it's 2.5F too cold for him so far, 1.5F too warm for me so far. 

1931-12-06	37.2	0
1932-12-06	51.1	0
1933-12-06	34.2	0
1934-12-06	41.8	0
1935-12-06	25.2	0
1936-12-06	33.2	0
1937-12-06	33.0	0
1938-12-06	36.5	0
1939-12-06	43.6	0
1940-12-06	24.5	0
1941-12-06	43.0	0
1942-12-06	34.3	0
1943-12-06	38.3	0
1944-12-06	30.7	0
1945-12-06	32.3	0
1946-12-06	34.2	0
1947-12-06	34.4	0
1948-12-06	43.7	0
1949-12-06	33.6	0
1950-12-06	44.0	0
1951-12-06	46.5	0
1952-12-06	35.4	0
1953-12-06	45.2	0
1954-12-06	27.3	0
1955-12-06	35.6	0
1956-12-06	34.8	0
1957-12-06	34.7	0
1958-12-06	32.4	0
1959-12-06	42.7	0
1960-12-06	38.5	0
1961-12-06	39.7	0
1962-12-06	44.9	0
1963-12-06	32.1	0
1964-12-06	29.0	0
1965-12-06	39.3	0
1966-12-06	31.4	0
1967-12-06	33.3	0
1968-12-06	43.2	0
1969-12-06	31.7	0
1970-12-06	39.1	0
1971-12-06	30.1	0
1972-12-06	37.8	0
1973-12-06	44.0	0
1974-12-06	36.5	0
1975-12-06	39.8	0
1976-12-06	25.3	0
1977-12-06	41.4	0
1978-12-06	39.5	0
1979-12-06	38.3	0
1980-12-06	36.4	0
1981-12-06	38.5	0
1982-12-06	55.2	0
1983-12-06	36.5	0
1984-12-06	39.2	0
1985-12-06	35.0	0
1986-12-06	38.4	0
1987-12-06	37.8	0
1988-12-06	36.7	0
1989-12-06	23.5	0
1990-12-06	41.8	0
1991-12-06	36.8	0
1992-12-06	36.8	0
1993-12-06	40.3	0
1994-12-06	48.3	0
1995-12-06	38.1	0
1996-12-06	41.3	0
1997-12-06	38.7	0
1998-12-06	51.4	0
1999-12-06	43.7	0
2000-12-06	31.1	0
2001-12-06	54.1	0
2002-12-06	27.8	0
2003-12-06	28.8	0
2004-12-06	39.8	0
2005-12-06	34.3	0
2006-12-06	42.6	0
2007-12-06	27.4	0
2008-12-06	41.4	0
2009-12-06	43.9	0
2010-12-06	38.8	0
2011-12-06	46.3	0
2012-12-06	41.8	0
2013-12-06	42.4	0
2014-12-06	40.8	0
2015-12-06	44.4	0
2016-12-06	40.8	0
2017-12-06	42.6	0

For what its worth, some folks are saying +15. Go read my forecast if you want to troll me. It's in this thread. I like how no one had any issues with 1953 being similar like I said it would be in November. No smart ass comments on that from the dumb ass brigade? 

The map below from Michael Ventrice is essentially a replication of the Euro weeklies that I see everyone hugging so tightly when its forecasting cold. Do you have anything to add to this or are you all just going to keep attacking me until we hit the end of the month and the NE ends up being warm in December like I've been saying since October? I know its cooled somewhat, but at the end of 12/6 Boston and much of the NE are still near to above normal, and the warm up is still coming, whether the trolls approve of it or not.

In any case, our "Modoki" El Nino looked pretty similar to my analogs for Sept-Nov, with its consistent temperature gradient from East-West.

It isn't really shocking that a warm up is coming, given the convection that has flared up by India and the impending surfacing of huge warmth in Nino 1.2

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Raindance, I have never contended that your analog set has zero value because it does....just because you, I or anyone has a given season on their analog set doesn't have to mean that they think the coming season will be an exact replica. I def. find value in 2006, for instance, but also happen to think that this season will be remembered as having played out much differently in the end. I won't derail the thread, as I have outlined my rationale in the outlook.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

You guys murdered this thread lol
Pretty big difference in subsurface data today, I wonder if this changes independent of actual occurance (much more has filled in around 150W)

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

How weird that we would have -PNA right now

[raindancewx]

Here are the latest weeklies -

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 14NOV2018     22.2 0.6     25.8 0.8     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.9
 21NOV2018     22.6 0.8     26.3 1.3     27.9 1.3     29.6 1.0
 28NOV2018     22.5 0.5     26.3 1.2     27.8 1.2     29.6 1.1
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

It is still fairly similar to 2006 on the weeklies. 2014 isn't bad either.

03DEC2014     22.3 0.0     25.8 0.7     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9 
06DEC2006     22.9 0.5     26.1 1.1     27.9 1.3     29.6 1.1

It does look like the subsurface is weakening, and the weeklies may be showing the waters below the eastern Pacific finally surfacing. In the 1979-2017 data set for 100W-180W, for the top 300m of the oceans, the tendency is for January to come in weaker than December, typically around 70% of Dec.

I was on vacation over the weekend to do some stuff in the snow, I just looked at Philly and it does look around 5F warmer for the same days than a few days ago, so I think the MJO progression is starting to show up on the models now. BOMM has a full rotation into 6-7, I'd enjoy that immensely, but we'll have to see.

Also...the SOI is still really positive in December. If we finish above +4 for the month, that has implications down the road, since it's never been that high in Dec in an El Nino since 1930 anyway.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

 

Also...the SOI is still really positive in December. If we finish above +4 for the month, that has implications down the road, since it's never been that high in Dec in an El Nino since 1930 anyway.

Coming La Nina? I had the same thought today at looking at new cold pool in subsurface. I also think global mechanics are tendency in that direction. 

[raindancewx]

This is what I have for the SOI in December for 2018 so far, and then past years (that I consider El Nino) with a +SOI in December. 

Dec 2018 (1-10): +5.14 so far

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

SOI	Dec
1945	5.4
1969	2.3
1965	0.3
1968	0.3

It's very interesting to me seeing these 1960s El Ninos show up in a variety of ways, but the AMO in November did come in at the lowest level since the mid-1990s, so we do seem to be really flirting with the cold AMO on and off again now. The 1968 and 1965 El Ninos both followed La Ninas of similar strength (~25.7C DJF) to this event too.

Long-term, big +SOI Decembers are correlated to warm February in the East. I did not forecast that, since almost no El Ninos have a +SOI in December, but it is definitely possible at this point if we finish with a +SOI, maybe very positive. It seems like it will trend less positive though. Back to 1930, a record -SOI in Dec would be -30, and 80% of years are like +12 to -12, ish, so +5 x 10, and then -12 * 21 would still only bring it down to -6.5 or so for December - we'll see.

The ECWMF is still insistent on pretty slow weakening for this event. It also did pretty well last year. If it somehow held at +1C for AMJ, that's like super El Nino-ish for that period. I'm assuming the peak is somewhat over 1C for one or two months, but the models may be thinking there is another two year event like 1986-87 and 1987-88 or 2014-15 and 2015-16.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I think it's a high melting arctic ice/+NAO point. I do think that the 5-year stretch of +NAO could lead to a higher El Nino tendency in the next 5 years, maybe short term it's La Nina wave. 

[raindancewx]

If anyone is curious, I found this recently - it shows what Joe D'aleo's Pioneer model had for Nov-Apr, probably from the October update. I think the issue with models like his that use 20+ variables is you are almost guaranteed to get an analog mean from 20, 30, 40 years ago, which will tend to be somewhat cold biased. He liked 1963, that is part of why Nov was so warm on the map, it was a very warm Fall, opposite this year, when it was quite cold.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a temporary Nina look on the weeklies too. We've had some easterlies which look to continue pushing slowly west past the dateline later this month. 

[raindancewx]

CPC has interesting analogs for the 6-10 and 8-14 periods (12/11 outlooks). They give 80% chance for warmth in the Northern Plains for the 6-10, which is very high for them.

6-10. 

19941220
20061227
20061212
20061222
20051225
20030104
19871207
19981212
19581227
20031222

8-14.

19751230
19581229
19961214
20070108
19991207
20031226
19591227
20091221
19781229
19941208

I looked the other day, and locally, 1969 is now the top match for both highs by month (Jul-Nov) and precipitation by month (Jul-Nov) locally - will be interesting to see if that shows up as a good year in Jan-Mar locally and nationally given that it had a positive SOI in December, as this year does currently. I'm watching the years that are El Nino winters following Gulf Coast major hurricane hits - it isn't common, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1969, 2004. The subsurface US temp maps for January, using Oct/Nov and my estimates for Dec are very sensitive to whether the subsurface weakens or not, and how much it weakens in December, unlike prior months.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It has been clear since early last autumn that this el nino would be weak. I never had a a clue where the strong ONI talk was coming from.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It has been clear since early last autumn that this el nino would be weak. I never had a a clue where the strong ONI talk was coming from.

Yep and there's nothing wrong with that, a weak la nina atmosphere coupled with a weak el nino ocean which is what we seem to have, can be ideal for both cold and snow!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep and there's nothing wrong with that, a weak la nina atmosphere coupled with a weak el nino ocean which is what we seem to have, can be ideal for both cold and snow!

 

The slight la nina undertone (RNA) was anticipated for December, and will not last through January.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is a Moderate El Nino.. highest peak on TAO/Triton so far

[raindancewx]

The QBO monthly data did go positive in November, if anyone hasn't seen it yet. Probably over +10 by January or February. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

I'm expecting the El Nino to peak around 27.7C for DJF in Nino 3.4. I would call that +1.2C (1951-2010 average is 26.5C) but NOAA would call 27.7C +1.1 probably, and it may only last for a period or two at that level. Similar SST peaks (assuming it does hit 27.7C or so in DJF) include these years (w/in 0.2C):

DJF         3.4    3.4p    ONI
1965    27.73    25.69    1.40
1968    27.54    25.77    1.10
1986    27.76    26.04    1.20
1994    27.64    26.74    1.00
2002    27.50    26.43    0.90

NOAA/CPC uses rolling 30-year means, so 2002 is basically equal to 1968, but the ONI is 0.2C lower. Oct/Nov were both at 27.6C for reference.

1965-66 is a low-solar year, with a similar SST peak in Nino 3.4 to what I expect, and followed a similar strength La Nina in the prior winter to 2017-18 (25.72C in 2017-18, 25.69C in 1964-65). Also near the AMO flip from + to -, and also in a year following a major hurricane hitting the Gulf of Mexico (Betsy). You also had a neutral SOI in December 1965. Last I looked on the ECMWF, the SOI looks positive for the next five days, maybe not everyday but certainly overall, and that'll be over half the month already. Using the Dec 1-12 SOI for Dec, you get some crazy matches for Oct-Nov-Dec. It's going to be pretty hard for the SOI to finish much below 0 in Dec even if a big crash comes later in the month.

Jamstec should be out this week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is a Moderate El Nino.. highest peak on TAO/Triton so far

No, it isn't. Daily peaks do not constitute ONI. 

Its weak and will be peak weak ONI....MEI is like .698.  Much more on par with weak events like '68-'69 than moderate events such as '02-'03.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The slight la nina undertone (RNA) was anticipated for December, and will not last through January.

Hence the latitudinal pattern that is about to set up. before the pattern reshuffles again after mid January.  That was a common theme in your analog list also.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it isn't. Daily peaks do not constitute ONI. 

Its weak and will be peak weak ONI....MEI is like .698.  Much more on par with weak events like '68-'69 than moderate events such as '02-'03.

Yes and the 02-03 was moderate almost borderline strong, this isn't anything close to that.  On the positive side, the NAO will probably be more negative than 02-03 also, which had a neutral to slightly positive NAO.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Really surprised to see Nino 4 warm up this much. Could do a +2.0 pocket soon. 

It's a Nino 4+/Nino1.2- pattern through next year probably. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This will continue. 2012 had the highest arctic ice melt. This was Winter 2012-13

[raindancewx]

Don't shoot the messenger but the JAMSTEC has completely flipped and joined the CFS with the super hot US winter. I may ask one of the Jamstec scientists on Twitter why their model is so volatile, they seem pretty nice and tend to respond to questions. The Northern Plains did show up as warm in nearly every independent method I could come up with, not just ENSO, so I think that makes sense, and really, that is the one area, along with NM/TX that didn't flip from last month.

I think I'm actually pretty on board with the precip map below, this pattern doesn't seem particularly wet nationally unless the SOI starts to crash to juice up the subtropical jet. The +20 reading for yesterday isn't going to help with that.

The other images are not working for me on their site right now, if someone else wants to give it a go. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

The December run last year actually did fairly well, I'd give it a C+. Was definitely better than the Nov 2017 run for what its worth.

The precip map was actually quite excellent, one of the best I've seen from a seasonal model - solid A for me.

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Don't shoot the messenger but the JAMSTEC has completely flipped and joined the CFS with the super hot US winter. I may ask one of the Jamstec scientists on Twitter why their model is so volatile, they seem pretty nice and tend to respond to questions. The Northern Plains did show up as warm in nearly every independent method I could come up with, not just ENSO, so I think that makes sense, and really, that is the one area, along with NM/TX that didn't flip from last month.

I think I'm actually pretty on board with the precip map below, this pattern doesn't seem particularly wet nationally unless the SOI starts to crash to juice up the subtropical jet. The +20 reading for yesterday isn't going to help with that.

The other images are not working for me on their site right now, if someone else wants to give it a go. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

The December run last year actually did fairly well, I'd give it a C+. Was definitely better than the Nov 2017 run for what its worth.

The precip map was actually quite excellent, one of the best I've seen from a seasonal model - solid A for me.

 

 Could be confusing that with the cold and dry/warm and wet pattern.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Don't shoot the messenger but the JAMSTEC has completely flipped and joined the CFS with the super hot US winter. I may ask one of the Jamstec scientists on Twitter why their model is so volatile, they seem pretty nice and tend to respond to questions. The Northern Plains did show up as warm in nearly every independent method I could come up with, not just ENSO, so I think that makes sense, and really, that is the one area, along with NM/TX that didn't flip from last month.

I think I'm actually pretty on board with the precip map below, this pattern doesn't seem particularly wet nationally unless the SOI starts to crash to juice up the subtropical jet. The +20 reading for yesterday isn't going to help with that.

The other images are not working for me on their site right now, if someone else wants to give it a go. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

The December run last year actually did fairly well, I'd give it a C+. Was definitely better than the Nov 2017 run for what its worth.

The precip map was actually quite excellent, one of the best I've seen from a seasonal model - solid A for me.

 

For some reason when I went back in the thread to try and find your analysis of the November run of the jamstec, I was unable to find it. Very wise to use normals of 1951-2010 instead of 1895-2010 or 1981-2010. This way you maximize the cold of the 1960s and 1970s into all data sets, wouldn't want to skew anything.  The CFS has been masterful lately. As a matter of fact I think it was only about 10 to 15ﾟ too warm in November. I just hope Palm trees don't start to sprout here in Michigan with this super hot Winter. Nothing says "super hot" like 0.5° Celsius above normal. I can't believe some people in this thread are implying that you're grasping for any straw that will make the North and East warm.

[raindancewx]

The El Nino strength graph isn't up yet, but visually, the model has gone to a much weaker El Nino in Spring 2019.

I'm tentatively looking at Springs 1958, 1970, 1973, 1987, 2005, 2007, 2007 for 2019 analogs, but I'm sure I'll change my mind by Feb 10. The SOI needs to connect to the pattern for a canonical El Nino Spring look to arrive. I find that the West tends to have very cold periods after the Gulf of Mexico is hit by a Major Hurricane in the following Spring. We certainly had a very cold late Feb / early Mar last year while the East roasted for a few weeks after a major hurricane hit the Gulf of Mexico. Locally, there is a strong tendency for March to be very wet in an El Nino if the difference in Sept & Oct precipitation is large, and it was this year.

A big +NAO in Oct also tends to support a cold March in the SW.

 

[Zach’s Pop]

Lol. 

[raindancewx]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

For some reason when I went back in the thread to try and find your analysis of the November run of the jamstec, I was unable to find it. Very wise to use normals of 1951-2010 instead of 1895-2010 or 1981-2010. This way you maximize the cold of the 1960s and 1970s into all data sets, wouldn't want to skew anything.  The CFS has been masterful lately. As a matter of fact I think it was only about 10 to 15ﾟ too warm in November. I just hope Palm trees don't start to sprout here in Michigan with this super hot Winter. Nothing says "super hot" like 0.5° Celsius above normal. I can't believe some people in this thread are implying that you're grasping for any straw that will make the North and East warm.

The North is warm so far, even against 1981-2010. Here is the start of the warm up. We'll see what happens by the end of the month. 

You seem to be in Detroit. The current forecast for the next four days has something like +6F against 1981-2010. That should wipe out the -0.5F month to date pretty easily.