Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[raindancewx]

I was including Mexico and Colorado too as moisture blocking mechanisms for the SW. They're not that far away. Plenty of big mountains nearby.

5 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Wheeler Peak is the high point in New Mexico at 13,167 feet.  I know you are generalizing, but you might want to not get too carried away in your stats.

Here is a look at snow anomalies to date (July 1-Nov 26). In the West, this is obviously more of a theoretical map as elevation is king. Some places in Missouri have had like three inches of snow in the past three years, so this is pretty different already. A lot of near-solar minimum years (1986, 1953, 2008, etc) see good NE snows in November, but it tends to be spotty. That shows up too.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

SOI is running more positive for an El Nino, huh?

 

2008 is only greater variation. 2010 La Nina. 

[raindancewx]

Pending the final Nov SOI value, the SOI in Sept-Nov 1953 will be pretty close to this year. 1952 is close too. Both weak El Ninos / warm Neutrals in winter. 1990 is in there too.

[Pascy619]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Pending the final Nov SOI value, the SOI in Sept-Nov 1953 will be pretty close to this year. 1952 is close too. Both weak El Ninos / warm Neutrals in winter. 1990 is in there too.

How were those Winters in the Midwest? 

[raindancewx]

I think it depends exactly where you are in the Midwest, and I find the three month SOI matches only have some skill for the next month anyway. The final SOI value for November will be in tonight, but this is probably pretty close -

The composite is for a warm East, with all of the top years warm in the NE. 

SOI	Sept	Oct	Nov
1948	-7.1	6.6	4.2
1948	-7.1	6.6	4.2
1952	-1.8	3.5	0.4
1953	-13.0	-0.3	-2.7
1990	-7.3	-1.2	-5.0
Mean	-7.3	3.0	0.2
2018	-8.5	2.6	0.4

Here is what the CFS shows v. the composite SOI match - we'll see if the better models have anything remotely similar to the CFS in a few days. The SOI top-matches are pretty warm for NE/Upper Midwest, less of a signal elsewhere, and the SOI matches will never be perfect anyway. The CFS / SOI look isn't what I expect, but the SOI matches do tend to have some skill from testing in prior years, especially with the MJO forecast to make it coherently through phases 2-4 after early December.

 

 

 

[Zach’s Pop]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I think it depends exactly where you are in the Midwest, and I find the three month SOI matches only have some skill for the next month anyway. The final SOI value for November will be in tonight, but this is probably pretty close -

The composite is for a warm East, with all of the top years warm in the NE. 

SOI	Sept	Oct	Nov
1948	-7.1	6.6	4.2
1948	-7.1	6.6	4.2
1952	-1.8	3.5	0.4
1953	-13.0	-0.3	-2.7
1990	-7.3	-1.2	-5.0
Mean	-7.3	3.0	0.2
2018	-8.5	2.6	0.4

Here is what the CFS shows v. the composite SOI match - we'll see if the better models have anything remotely similar to the CFS in a few days. The SOI top-matches are pretty warm for NE/Upper Midwest, less of a signal elsewhere, and the SOI matches will never be perfect anyway. The CFS / SOI look isn't what I expect, but the SOI matches do tend to have some skill from testing in prior years, especially with the MJO forecast to make it coherently through phases 2-4 after early December.

 

 

 

Dude, we get it. The northeast will be warm. Biggest question is HOW MUCH FOR ALBUQUERQUE????? 

[raindancewx]

The real question is why so many people insist on low-solar El Ninos being a guarantee of cold and snow in the NE and then flip out at me when I mention that years like 1994, 2006, 1953 were all low solar, often with good NE snow in November, and still managed to not be great winters in the NE. Not every winter with low solar is 1963, 1976 or 2009. It's almost like no one ever researches the claims they see bandied about. 1986 is a nice blend of the extremely cold winters and the very warm low-solar El Ninos. 

I've also literally never said the NE would be warm outside December for this winter. My idea hasn't changed since September and my outlook has been out since October. It's in the thread around 10/10 or 10/15 if you want to see it. 

The joke here is that everyone was talking about how great of an analog 2002 was in October, but no seemed to care that it was pretty warm in the NE for half of December that year, and the patterns have been arriving somewhat faster and warmer than in 2002 this year. The MJO hit phases 2-4 in the second half of December 2002, we'll probably get there a bit earlier this year. Here is the second half of Dec 2002 - phase two to four from Dec 18 into January...you know like this year, except the MJO will is moving slower this year.

This time we enter phase 2-4 earlier - the real question is whether the wave can survive in phases 5 and 6, which are warmest in the NE. If the wave dies in phase four, its probably near normal. The MJO, since Oct has been repeating at 23-30 day cycles, and if November is any guide, we can expect about three weeks in the warm NE December phases (2-6). That was the basis for my analogs in October, and it looks fine. The waves, if you look at Sept v. Oct v. Nov have also been getting stronger each month if you look at the time spent outside the circle, so some kind of progression into 5/6, even if the wave is weakening, seems likely. The European seems to forecast the MJO too weakly at long range.

Later in the winter, 2,3 are pretty cold nationally.

[raindancewx]

The new Canadian Model has the Warm East look for December, like the closest SOI years, MJO analogs, and CFS all imply. Will it happen? We'll see. The cold Maine, warm SE look is rare in Decembers in El Ninos, but 1972 did have it, although it was far colder in the rest of the country than what the Canadian shows. Just about the entire West trended colder looks like, while the SE trended warmer. The trend colder in the West for December is precipitation driven.

These are the changes for the entirety of the winter - generally colder, outside the SE. The precip track it shows and the warmth in the SE too me means that the model sees "inland" Nor'easter tracks.

Finally, here is a look at how well the 11.30.17 run did for DJF 2017-18 - interestingly it did have the very hot East in February 2018 in its 11.30.17 run.

The subsurface numbers for November should be in early next week which is another clue for December. Also, the European and weekly/monthly/tri-monthly SST data will arrive by Dec 10-15.

[Great Snow 1717]

On ‎11‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 9:57 PM, raindancewx said:

The real question is why so many people insist on low-solar El Ninos being a guarantee of cold and snow in the NE and then flip out at me when I mention that years like 1994, 2006, 1953 were all low solar, often with good NE snow in November, and still managed to not be great winters in the NE. Not every winter with low solar is 1963, 1976 or 2009. It's almost like no one ever researches the claims they see bandied about. 1986 is a nice blend of the extremely cold winters and the very warm low-solar El Ninos. 

I've also literally never said the NE would be warm outside December for this winter. My idea hasn't changed since September and my outlook has been out since October. It's in the thread around 10/10 or 10/15 if you want to see it. 

The joke here is that everyone was talking about how great of an analog 2002 was in October, but no seemed to care that it was pretty warm in the NE for half of December that year, and the patterns have been arriving somewhat faster and warmer than in 2002 this year. The MJO hit phases 2-4 in the second half of December 2002, we'll probably get there a bit earlier this year. Here is the second half of Dec 2002 - phase two to four from Dec 18 into January...you know like this year, except the MJO will is moving slower this year.

This time we enter phase 2-4 earlier - the real question is whether the wave can survive in phases 5 and 6, which are warmest in the NE. If the wave dies in phase four, its probably near normal. The MJO, since Oct has been repeating at 23-30 day cycles, and if November is any guide, we can expect about three weeks in the warm NE December phases (2-6). That was the basis for my analogs in October, and it looks fine. The waves, if you look at Sept v. Oct v. Nov have also been getting stronger each month if you look at the time spent outside the circle, so some kind of progression into 5/6, even if the wave is weakening, seems likely. The European seems to forecast the MJO too weakly at long range.

Later in the winter, 2,3 are pretty cold nationally.

I think it's because many people realize that an El Nino can ruin the winter in the NE but they try to find every reason that the El Nino will not ruin the winter. El Nino is the elephant in the room that some chose to ignore. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface looks odd for this time of the year. If the far east was cool, it would be La Nina-esq. Still, the 2nd warm pocket is farther east than La Nina, which is even indicative of next-burst-El Nino that you would typicall see in April or May. The west of 180W area seems to always be warm these days. 

 

[raindancewx]

The subsurface numbers for November dropped in the 100W-180W zone. Best match I could up with for the subsurface is very warm nationally in December: 1982, 1982, 1986, 1991, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2002. The matches are based on Sept/Oct/Nov individually - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

The top three matches for Sept-Nov objectively are 1991, 2002, and 2006. 2002 is closest, but too warm each time. 2006 subsurface is dead on, like identical, for Sept and Nov, but too cold in October, so I couldn't use it, but the look is very similar to the composite below. I was pleased to see it came out to +1 to +3F for the NE - that is the most likely outcome to me, I don't see a hugely hot December there.

YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W 
2018    7     0.74      0.73       0.81
2018    8     0.75      0.73       0.81
2018    9     1.03      1.06       1.12
2018   10     1.22      1.39       1.58
2018   11     1.13      1.31       1.36

For what its worth, this method worked very well in November - using either 1991 (x2), 2002 (x3), or using 1986 (x2), 2002 (x2), 2006 (x1), both are good subsurface matches and national matches.

Subsurface	August	Sept	October
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
1991	0.49	0.6	1.41
1991	0.49	0.6	1.41
Mean	0.83	1.09	1.60
2018	0.81	1.12	1.59

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I think it's because many people realize that an El Nino can ruin the winter in the NE but they try to find every reason that the El Nino will not ruin the winter. El Nino is the elephant in the room that some chose to ignore. 

Weak el nino is our snowiest ENSO state.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Raindancewx, I think your ideas for Dec are pretty reasonable. A mild 2-3 week period is pretty well supported.

[raindancewx]

Had a bit of snow here overnight. 

Also, I wanted to point out, the +1.36 subsurface reading for 100W-180W corresponds to a DJF ONI of +1.25C (v. 1951-2010 means), give or take 0.6C at 80% certainty for the 1979-2017 data. This is somewhat lower than last month. NOAA uses 26.58C for DJF in the 1985-2014 thirty year period as average, so you can subtract 0.08C for the ONI range they'd use, it's +1.17C plus or minus 0.6C. The closest subsurface readings in November are 1991, 1994, 2002, 2006, with the order for closeness being 2006, 1991, 1994, 2002.

2018	11	1.36	0.00
2006	11	1.35	0.01
1991	11	1.22	0.14
1994	11	1.16	0.20
2002	11	1.58	0.22

Also, the solar data for November came in - it showed that sunspot activity increased in November from last November. That is the first increase since Sept 2014 on a year over year basis. It isn't much, but it tends to start happening when the minimum is reached. The increase was only by +0.2, but again, first increase at all in over four years. This is the updated monthly data through November.

[raindancewx]

European initialization had warming in Nino 1.2, Nino 3, and Nino 3.4 for November, some cooling in Nino 4 as the subsurface warmth continues to shift East.

Nino 3.4 came in at +1.0C (ish) on this data set. CPC uses 26.75C as "average" for November - so I'm expecting the November value for Nino 3.4 to be around 27.7C, give or take 0.2C. The weeklies were around 27.6C for Nov 1-Nov 24, recognizing that three days for the "Oct 31 centered" data are in Nov. Core of the Nino seems to be around Nino 3 / 120W at this point. ONI looks like it is around +0.7C for SON? An SST of 27.5C (ish) for SON is similar to these years. Will update it once the actual Nov figure is in. CPC may revise the Oct figure too like it did with Sept last month, we'll have to see.

Year    Sept       Oct       Nov       SON      Dist
2018    27.20    27.58    27.70    27.49    0.00
1986    27.24    27.53    27.71    27.49    0.10
1994    27.20    27.47    27.81    27.49    0.22
1991    27.14    27.58    27.90    27.54    0.26
2006    27.32    27.41    27.69    27.47    0.30
1957    27.44    27.42    27.62    27.49    0.48
1976    27.02    27.46    27.41    27.30    0.59

I still don't know what to make of those waters by Japan, that is not supposed to be there with the warmth in the Gulf of Alaska, I can't find any years that have it with the warmth by Alaska. I'm sure it has some kind of implication, -PDO years are often cold in the NW and Plains, but that doesn't really seem likely given the warmth in the Gulf of Alaska. The cold AMO has also returned, after a brief vacation in October. The correlation between the SE US being cold is stronger from +PDO years than from El Nino years (even though there is a lot of overlap), so I think that is why it has been hard to get the SE too cold so far. I think we'll see another split in how the Nov PDO value comes in this month, with NOAA showing it negative like in October, and JISAO (Mantua) showing it near normal again. 

[weathafella]

Yesterday’s numbers:

Enso 1:  -0.04

Enso 1.2: 0.2

Enso 2: 0.46

Enso 3: 0.83

Enso 3.4: 1.01

Enso 4: 1.23

modoki index: 0.84

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This next pattern could be like a slice into El Nino. 

[raindancewx]

CPC has ONI at +0.7C in Nino 3.4 for Sept-Nov 2018. The un-rounded number is +0.72, with +0.89C for Nov.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.40
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.87
2018  11   27.63   26.75    0.89

The years I posted above are all close, and September didn't change much from last month's update, only by 0.04C.

These are objectively the closest Novembers in Nino 3.4 -

2018	27.63
1957	27.62
2006	27.69
1986	27.71
1987	27.77
1963	27.47
2014	27.46
1994	27.81

For all Nino zones in November, these are top matches - some pretty warm Decembers (2006, 1994, 2014, 1991, 2004, 1987 are all warm for at least half the US) are included.

Nov	4	3.4	3	1.2	Match
2018	29.67	27.63	25.99	22.39	0.00
2006	29.62	27.69	26.10	22.45	0.28
1994	29.44	27.81	25.99	22.26	0.54
2014	29.43	27.46	25.88	22.45	0.58
1991	29.39	27.90	26.05	22.38	0.62
2004	29.45	27.36	25.73	22.37	0.77
1987	29.52	27.77	26.09	22.80	0.80

For Sept-Nov, the transition is most similar to these years in Nino 3.4, objectively -

Year	Sept	Oct	Nov	Match
2018	27.19	27.62	27.63	0.00
1986	27.24	27.53	27.71	0.22
1994	27.20	27.47	27.81	0.34
1991	27.14	27.58	27.90	0.36
2006	27.32	27.41	27.69	0.40
1957	27.44	27.42	27.62	0.46
1976	27.02	27.46	27.41	0.55

The weeklies still look like 2006 to me, although 2014 isn't bad now. Both were warm in December nationally.

              Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week         SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
28NOV2018     22.5 0.5     26.3 1.2     27.8 1.2     29.6 1.1
26NOV2014     22.4 0.4     25.9 0.9     27.6 1.0     29.5 0.9
29NOV2006     23.0 0.9     26.1 1.1     27.8 1.2     29.6 1.0

2002 and 2009 were both way stronger in Nino 3.4 relative to Nino 1.2 v. this year by this point.

27NOV2002     22.6 0.6     26.4 1.4     28.2 1.6     29.7 1.2
25NOV2009     22.2 0.3     26.3 1.2     28.2 1.6     29.9 1.3

Here is a look at US temps so far - very early days still, so will change dramatically, but this is already nearing 10% of the month. 

[raindancewx]

Also, the NOAA PDO value for November 2018 is still negative. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

201808    -0.44
201809    -0.48
201810    -0.76
201811    -0.73

El Ninos similar in November by this PDO index (-0.33 to -1.13) include: 2009 (-1.01), 2006 (-0.83), 1982 (-0.61), 1977 (-0.45), 1963 (-0.48), 1953 (-0.42), 1951 (-0.44), 1939 (-1.07)

The JISAO PDO will probably be around +0.25 again, but we'll see.

[Zach’s Pop]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

CPC has ONI at +0.7C in Nino 3.4 for Sept-Nov 2018. The un-rounded number is +0.72, with +0.89C for Nov.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.40
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.87
2018  11   27.63   26.75    0.89

The years I posted above are all close, and September didn't change much from last month's update, only by 0.04C.

These are objectively the closest Novembers in Nino 3.4 -

2018	27.63
1957	27.62
2006	27.69
1986	27.71
1987	27.77
1963	27.47
2014	27.46
1994	27.81

For all Nino zones in November, these are top matches - some pretty warm Decembers (2006, 1994, 2014, 1991, 2004, 1987 are all warm for at least half the US) are included.

Nov	4	3.4	3	1.2	Match
2018	29.67	27.63	25.99	22.39	0.00
2006	29.62	27.69	26.10	22.45	0.28
1994	29.44	27.81	25.99	22.26	0.54
2014	29.43	27.46	25.88	22.45	0.58
1991	29.39	27.90	26.05	22.38	0.62
2004	29.45	27.36	25.73	22.37	0.77
1987	29.52	27.77	26.09	22.80	0.80

For Sept-Nov, the transition is most similar to these years in Nino 3.4, objectively -

Year	Sept	Oct	Nov	Match
2018	27.19	27.62	27.63	0.00
1986	27.24	27.53	27.71	0.22
1994	27.20	27.47	27.81	0.34
1991	27.14	27.58	27.90	0.36
2006	27.32	27.41	27.69	0.40
1957	27.44	27.42	27.62	0.46
1976	27.02	27.46	27.41	0.55

The weeklies still look like 2006 to me, although 2014 isn't bad now. Both were warm in December nationally.

              Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week         SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
28NOV2018     22.5 0.5     26.3 1.2     27.8 1.2     29.6 1.1
26NOV2014     22.4 0.4     25.9 0.9     27.6 1.0     29.5 0.9
29NOV2006     23.0 0.9     26.1 1.1     27.8 1.2     29.6 1.0

2002 and 2009 were both way stronger in Nino 3.4 relative to Nino 1.2 v. this year by this point.

27NOV2002     22.6 0.6     26.4 1.4     28.2 1.6     29.7 1.2
25NOV2009     22.2 0.3     26.3 1.2     28.2 1.6     29.9 1.3

Here is a look at US temps so far - very early days still, so will change dramatically, but this is already nearing 10% of the month. 

Lol. 2 days worth of temp departures. Too funny raindancewx. 

[raindancewx]

31 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said:

Lol. 2 days worth of temp departures. Too funny raindancewx. 

Is there anything that could convince you that December could be warm other than 100F days every day at this point? It's not me trying to be mean. Three warm days. More are coming. This was supposed to be the cold part of the month for you guys. This is MJO phase one right now, that can be quite cold in the NE in December. Phase 2-3-4 are all warmer. I'd say progression into 2-3 is close to guaranteed at high amplitude at this point for Dec. The NAO is positive, and looks to stay positive for awhile. The month so far looks like the composite for +NAO Decembers over the last 60 years. The first three days of November were honestly pretty close nationally to the final monthly figures for what its worth. The MJO migration, +NAO, Nino 4, cold Nov in the Plains, the subsurface analogs, the SOI, and CPC all favor warmth for at least several weeks of December for most of the US. I don't know what more you could want. I don't just say stuff like this for fun, there are pretty clear signals for warmth all over. Decembers in recent El Ninos like 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2015 all had at the least, very warm spells in the NE in December. Other than 1997 and 2015, all of those years have at least some similarities to this event. The Fall pattern in 1963 was very warm, and then went very cold in Dec. We were opposite 1963 in Fall, and so far, it looks opposite in Dec. So there is that too.

Here is the MJO basis - CPC is fairly well grounded for this. NAO is nice and positive for now, and what looks like a while too....and it looks like this month so far?

[Zach’s Pop]

7 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Is there anything that could convince you that December could be warm other than 100F days every day at this point? It's not me trying to be mean. Three warm days. More are coming. This was supposed to be the cold part of the month for you guys. This is MJO phase one right now, that can be quite cold in the NE in December. Phase 2-3-4 are all warmer. I'd say progression into 2-3 is close to guaranteed at high amplitude at this point for Dec. The NAO is positive, and looks to stay positive for awhile. The month so far looks like the composite for +NAO Decembers over the last 60 years. The first three days of November were honestly pretty close nationally to the final monthly figures for what its worth. The MJO migration, +NAO, Nino 4, cold Nov in the Plains, the subsurface analogs, the SOI, and CPC all favor warmth for at least several weeks of December for most of the US. I don't know what more you could want. I don't just say stuff like this for fun, there are pretty clear signals for warmth all over. Decembers in recent El Ninos like 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2015 all had at the least, very warm spells in the NE in December. Other than 1997 and 2015, all of those years have at least some similarities to this event. The Fall pattern in 1963 was very warm, and then went very cold in Dec. We were opposite 1963 in Fall, and so far, it looks opposite in Dec. So there is that too.

Here is the MJO basis - CPC is fairly well grounded for this. NAO is nice and positive for now, and what looks like a while too....and it looks like this month so far?

CPC?? Would you like me to show you their maps from November??? The ones that kept showing it warm in the east?? Of course you wouldn’t.  What is The altitude out there in Albuquerque? I think it maybe effecting your critical thinking. But we get it. Warm for the east. Cold for Albuquerque. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Is there anything that could convince you that December could be warm other than 100F days every day at this point? It's not me trying to be mean. Three warm days. More are coming. This was supposed to be the cold part of the month for you guys. This is MJO phase one right now, that can be quite cold in the NE in December. Phase 2-3-4 are all warmer. I'd say progression into 2-3 is close to guaranteed at high amplitude at this point for Dec. The NAO is positive, and looks to stay positive for awhile. The month so far looks like the composite for +NAO Decembers over the last 60 years. The first three days of November were honestly pretty close nationally to the final monthly figures for what its worth. The MJO migration, +NAO, Nino 4, cold Nov in the Plains, the subsurface analogs, the SOI, and CPC all favor warmth for at least several weeks of December for most of the US. I don't know what more you could want. I don't just say stuff like this for fun, there are pretty clear signals for warmth all over. Decembers in recent El Ninos like 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2015 all had at the least, very warm spells in the NE in December. Other than 1997 and 2015, all of those years have at least some similarities to this event. The Fall pattern in 1963 was very warm, and then went very cold in Dec. We were opposite 1963 in Fall, and so far, it looks opposite in Dec. So there is that too.

Here is the MJO basis - CPC is fairly well grounded for this. NAO is nice and positive for now, and what looks like a while too....and it looks like this month so far?

Above average, yet hardly. There's some interesting weather coming for the East through the 20th. You'll see. It's the strong MJO burst through Phase 8 that's the culprit.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

What an unlikely pattern for El Nino coming up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/3/2018 at 7:33 AM, weathafella said:

Yesterday’s numbers:

Enso 1:  -0.04

Enso 1.2: 0.2

Enso 2: 0.46

Enso 3: 0.83

Enso 3.4: 1.01

Enso 4: 1.23

modoki index: 0.84

Looks modoki to me.

[raindancewx]

21 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said:

CPC?? Would you like me to show you their maps from November??? The ones that kept showing it warm in the east?? Of course you wouldn’t.  What is The altitude out there in Albuquerque? I think it maybe effecting your critical thinking. But we get it. Warm for the east. Cold for Albuquerque. 

You going to cry if I'm right or what? Cold Novembers in the NE are pretty common in El Ninos. Even years like 1997 had them. Even Bastardi seems to think it will be warm for a while. It's easy to say "You're wrong" and then not post anything to contradict it or support cold, but it sure as hell is lazy. You just keep hiding there and passively aggressively needling me for saying stuff you don't want to hear. The MJO keeps getting forecast to move more and more coherently through phase four, that is warm for the NE. Nature doesn't care that you don't like what it is doing. Deal with it.

I don't think showing you anything could convince you the NE will be warm at this point, I think it'd be 200F every day the rest of December for you to even consider it. The NE corridor is +3 to +5 so far v 1981-2010, warmer v 1951-2010. The coming cold will take that down, and then next warm up will come.  

 

 

[Zach’s Pop]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

You going to cry if I'm right or what? Cold Novembers in the NE are pretty common in El Ninos. Even years like 1997 had them. Even Bastardi seems to think it will be warm for a while. It's easy to say "You're wrong" and then not post anything to contradict it or support cold, but it sure as hell is lazy. You just keep hiding there and passively aggressively needling me for saying stuff you don't want to hear. The MJO keeps getting forecast to move more and more coherently through phase four, that is warm for the NE. Nature doesn't care that you don't like what it is doing. Deal with it.

I don't think showing you anything could convince you the NE will be warm at this point, I think it'd be 200F every day the rest of December for you to even consider it. The NE corridor is +3 to +5 so far v 1981-2010, warmer v 1951-2010. The coming cold will take that down, and then next warm up will come.  

 

 

You seem so intent on the northeast being warm. And big deal about what JB says. Yesterday you used CPC maps. Today’s it’s Bastardi. Tomorrow it will be whatever else you can come up with.  I have seen you walk back that comment a couple of times claiming you really aren’t calling for it to be that warm. Another fact that might interest you is I don’t live in the northeast. But I believe someone up there must have called you a poopy head one time because you sure like to mention warmth up there. Your snowfall call for Boston is going to bust big time. And when it does I hope you are man enough to admit it. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

There is a +subsurface warming happening between 180W and 160W so all modeled -PNA in the medium range is unlikely.  

[raindancewx]

21 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said:

You seem so intent on the northeast being warm. And big deal about what JB says. Yesterday you used CPC maps. Today’s it’s Bastardi. Tomorrow it will be whatever else you can come up with.  I have seen you walk back that comment a couple of times claiming you really aren’t calling for it to be that warm. Another fact that might interest you is I don’t live in the northeast. But I believe someone up there must have called you a poopy head one time because you sure like to mention warmth up there. Your snowfall call for Boston is going to bust big time. And when it does I hope you are man enough to admit it. 

You keep saying I will be wrong. What if I'm right? Boston is at 0.1" officially. Doesn't look wrong to me. Boston has never had more than 60 inches in a low-solar El Nino back to 1892. I documented that extensively, and most of those years, all but two, 14/16, are under 45".  1977, 2002, 2014, all had high solar. 1995 was a La Nina with low solar. It isn't the right pattern for Boston to get heavy snow. 

I've mentioned before the SOI in Sept-Nov is a good indicator for December. Looks good to me! 

SOI	Sept	Oct	Nov
1953	-13.0	-0.3	-2.7
2018	-8.5	2.6	-0.9

Does reality matter to you or not? I'll be waiting for your answer at the end of the month when the NE comes in warm. You still haven't answered whether you think its even possible for the NE to be warm in December in an El Nino, even though almost all of the recent ones are. Dirty little secret? The Cold El Ninos were already cold in the NE by this point. I know you don't care about reality, so this won't matter to you, but here is what the cold El Ninos look like in the NE by this point in Dec -

Depending on the area, I think just about the whole NE is +1 to +5, given what is coming later in the month, against 1951-2010 highs.

 

[weathafella]

In fairness, BOS is on record with 0.1 because the guy they use in Winthrop as the official measurer literally forgot the midnight reading and then it rained.   It’s pretty much assumed the actual number was probably 2.5 or so based in spotters in the area.  I live 10 miles away and received 6.3 inches for this areas earliest decent snow since 2012.  So you may be right in the end but using a bad measure (DC/BWI/NYC/the Boston area) got a lot more snow than expected at this point.  It’s been cold since mid October ala 2002.  The upcoming patten is not unlike December 2002 despite the silly 5 day snapshot charts.  I bet if you run 12/5-20 you’d get the same results you above.  We’ll see the results in the end.