Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

La Nina prospects for next year went up today fwiw, the +PNA in the 7-15 day balances I think. 

[raindancewx]

Angel Fire finished at -28F the other morning, which is record cold for this time of year. The mountains here are typically 0-30F all day, from about mid-Nov to mid-Mar, when snow-packed. Anything outside that range above 8,000 feet is a bit unusual. I haven't any readings below the -30s since I've lived here, I think the all-time record in NM is around -50.

I was pleased to see 1986 show up on Tropical Tidbits as a top match for October. I'm pretty sure 1986 had a Nov-snow storm down to the NE coastal plain too. November is behaving a lot like 1986/1957 with maybe 2004 or another warm year to offset 1957 in the East, and those years were good SOI matches for July-Oct.

So far I like 1957, 1986, 1986, 2004 as a good blend for where Nov is and may end up.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Angel Fire finished at -28F the other morning, which is record cold for this time of year. The mountains here are typically 0-30F all day, from about mid-Nov to mid-Mar, when snow-packed. Anything outside that range above 8,000 feet is a bit unusual. I haven't any readings below the -30s since I've lived here, I think the all-time record in NM is around -50.

I was pleased to see 1986 show up on Tropical Tidbits as a top match for October. I'm pretty sure 1986 had a Nov-snow storm down to the NE coastal plain too. November is behaving a lot like 1986/1957 with maybe 2004 or another warm year to offset 1957 in the East, and those years were good SOI matches for July-Oct.

So far I like 1957, 1986, 1986, 2004 as a good blend for where Nov is and may end up.

I think you're talking about the Vet Day 1986 snowstorm?  Winter 1986-87 was interesting, with 50-55 inches just south of NYC with NYC getting fringed a lot with about half that snowfall,  In the new climate those storms would probably track more northward, we hardly ever see suppressed tracks anymore outside of the extreme winter of 2009-10 and even then the tracks eventually adjusted northward.

1957-58, 1986-87, 2004-05 would be a nice nino lineup except I think the first two of those were stronger than this one is likely to be.  All of them had over 40 inches of snow here or close by (in the case of 1986-87 just to our south.)

 

 

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data):

11/14: 0.57 / 0.35

11/13: 0.71 / 0.50

11/12: 0.64 / 0.53

11/11: 0.51 / 0.51

11/10: 0.48 / 0.50

11/8: 0.69 / 0.61

11/7: 0.85 / 0.73

11/6: 0.84 / 0.65

11/5: 0.94 / 0.55

11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

[frd]

10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data):

11/14: 0.57 / 0.35

11/13: 0.71 / 0.50

11/12: 0.64 / 0.53

11/11: 0.51 / 0.51

11/10: 0.48 / 0.50

11/8: 0.69 / 0.61

11/7: 0.85 / 0.73

11/6: 0.84 / 0.65

11/5: 0.94 / 0.55

11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

A question please, do minor changes here have a lag effect to the winter ?  ( I know sometimes SST patterns change in the Pac, etc., but to have an immediate impact on the atmosphere may take months I think from what I read here  )

So with that in mind do you see anything dramatic on the horizon, or are we basically set with the Modaki from a winter outcome view point?

Thanks  

[Huffwx]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think you're talking about the Vet Day 1986 snowstorm?  Winter 1986-87 was interesting, with 50-55 inches just south of NYC with NYC getting fringed a lot with about half that snowfall,  In the new climate those storms would probably track more northward, we hardly ever see suppressed tracks anymore outside of the extreme winter of 2009-10 and even then the tracks eventually adjusted northward.

1957-58, 1986-87, 2004-05 would be a nice nino lineup except I think the first two of those were stronger than this one is likely to be.  All of them had over 40 inches of snow here or close by (in the case of 1986-87 just to our south.)

 

 

Vets day storm was 1987. 

 

I'm not sure what you mean by no longer suppressed. I'm a philly native who lives in SW VA.  We had 2 storms shunted to our south last year were we got 2-4 and south areas into NC got 6-10 inches. 

[griteater]

  

45 minutes ago, frd said:

A question please, do minor changes here have a lag effect to the winter ?  ( I know sometimes SST patterns change in the Pac, etc., but to have an immediate impact on the atmosphere may take months I think from what I read here  )

So with that in mind do you see anything dramatic on the horizon, or are we basically set with the Modaki from a winter outcome view point?

Thanks  

The warm anomalies are stretched out across a large portion of the Pacific right now.  That look registers more in the camp of west based / modoki than it does east based.  No, I don't think we are going to see a hard move west or east.  That would be the thing to look for though in order for it to have implications on the winter...and whether there are also atmospheric changes to go along with it (e.g. changes to VP anomaly patterns).

[frd]

25 minutes ago, griteater said:

The warm anomalies are stretched out across a large portion of the Pacific right now.  That look registers more in the camp of west based / modoki than it does east based.  No, I don't think we are going to see a hard move west or east.  That would be the thing to look for though in order for it to have implications on the winter...and whether there are also atmospheric changes to go along with it (e.g. changes to VP anomaly patterns).

Thanks 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Huffwx said:

Vets day storm was 1987. 

 

I'm not sure what you mean by no longer suppressed. I'm a philly native who lives in SW VA.  We had 2 storms shunted to our south last year were we got 2-4 and south areas into NC got 6-10 inches. 

Oh thats what I originally thought so maybe he was thinking of that one too.  I dont remember any November snowstorm in prior years.

 

I guess it's relative about suppressed storm tracks because in our area we've had a tendency for storms to be more amped up than what models were originally showing- it's been happening for a few years now.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Really surprised actually, there is a subsurface warming trend while a -PNA is modeled +days 3-9 (subsurface warming trend is for next 10 days). 

[raindancewx]

I'm actually happy about my analogs for the NE for Nov as far as the snow/mix/slop event goes, I had 1953 which had a lot of Nov snow in Philly, and I had 1986 for Boston which had several inches of snow. Snow is not real common in Philly in November.

As far as the map Griteater shows goes, the Modoki box in the middle minus half of the two side boxes individually is how you get the Modoki value. The warmth in the box by Peru is why the Modoki dailies have been dropping, which is what I've been saying the subsurface was doing. It isn't that I expect 1.2 to dominate, its just the Eastern part of the Tropical Pacific should "catch up" to the rest of it for the rest of winter if it hasn't yet (the weeklies showed a basin-wide look last week).

The month so far is dead on to Nov 1986 for temps, and it was pretty close in Oct too. 

[raindancewx]

Nov Jamstec run still has a pretty big El Nino but it trended down a bit from October.

US Temperatures for DJF - the model still has the Northern Plains warm, which is what I think too. It definitely trended the SW from cool to cold, and the NE from slightly warm to slightly cool. The deep cold in Mexico is actually interesting too.

Precipitation is interesting - went much drier NW and NE, much wetter SW, especially AZ.

The Modoki forecast increased for winter. However, its a three box calculation, and if you look at the first image, it seems to be mostly from Box C (by the Philippines) coming in cooler.

The El Nino look in Spring 2019 -

 

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Nov Jamstec run still has a pretty big El Nino but it trended down a bit from October.

US Temperatures for DJF - the model still has the Northern Plains warm, which is what I think too. It definitely trended the SW from cool to cold, and the NE from slightly warm to slightly cool. The deep cold in Mexico is actually interesting too.

Precipitation is interesting - went much drier NW and NE, much wetter SW, especially AZ.

The Modoki forecast increased for winter. However, its a three box calculation, and if you look at the first image, it seems to be mostly from Box C (by the Philippines) coming in cooler.

The El Nino look in Spring 2019 -

 

I am a big fan of what this forecast shows. Nice to see it going for cold weather throughout the west and decently wet, especially SW. Most of the forecasts are for warm and dry over the interior west in my area.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Yup, another wave incoming. The El Nino is not waning. 

 

 

I doubt the -PNA in the 2-8 day will verify despite +300dm at 500mb shown on ensemble mean! 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

12z GFS ensembles are already trending away from -PNA-centered. It will continue. 

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Yup, another wave incoming. The El Nino is not waning. 

 

 

I doubt the -PNA in the 2-8 day will verify despite +300dm at 500mb shown on ensemble mean! 

Can you point out this severe negative PNA that you're talking about?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Can you point out this severe negative PNA that you're talking about?

Here's 6z GFS ensembles, hr72-204

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

Now the 12z Euro is completely different. 

[OSUmetstud]

23 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Here's 6z GFS ensembles, hr72-204

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

Now the 12z Euro is completely different. 

It's a weak trough off the west coast in a split flow. It's barely registering as a -pna since the main PNA region in nwt/Yukon. Theres nothing in the 300dm range either. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's a weak trough off the west coast in a split flow. It's barely registering as a -pna since the main PNA region in nwt/Yukon. Theres nothing in the 300dm range either. 

When talking about ENSO, I'm mostly referring to the North Pacific. +300dm centered there for more than a few days hasn't happened since July. 

[raindancewx]

On 11/10/2018 at 11:19 PM, raindancewx said:

The next big -SOI burst looks like it will start around 11/15 going by the ECMWF which should re-activate the sub tropical jet again and change the pattern.

 

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
17 Nov 2018	1009.46	1010.55	-25.26	-0.18	-2.26
16 Nov 2018	1010.92	1010.25	-14.06	0.96	-1.96
15 Nov 2018	1012.26	1009.65	-1.72	1.84	-1.71
14 Nov 2018	1011.45	1008.65	-0.51	2.43	-1.56
13 Nov 2018	1011.49	1008.20	2.61	3.16	-1.59
12 Nov 2018	1011.85	1009.05	-0.51	3.98	-1.74
11 Nov 2018	1012.94	1008.30	11.20	4.80	-1.96
10 Nov 2018	1012.55	1008.30	8.71	4.74	-2.24
9 Nov 2018	1012.19	1008.45	5.47	4.50	-2.57
8 Nov 2018	1010.65	1007.95	-1.15	4.28	-2.98
7 Nov 2018	1010.91	1008.15	-0.77	4.17	-3.31
6 Nov 2018	1011.79	1008.90	0.06	3.93	-3.48
5 Nov 2018	1011.99	1009.50	-2.48	3.72	-3.49
4 Nov 2018	1012.21	1010.15	-5.22	3.72	-3.58
3 Nov 2018	1012.54	1011.10	-9.17	3.97	-3.80
2 Nov 2018	1013.42	1010.50	0.25	4.50	-3.84
1 Nov 2018	1014.56	1010.35	8.46	4.27	-3.91

There is some research out there that a 20-point SOI drop or more within three days corresponds to a big low over the SW in 10-20 days at statistically significant levels. We will see.The monthly value for Nov is back down to -1.4. The big heavy rains in the SW in Oct with a quiet Nov (no rain/snow in ABQ this month) in an El Nino is reminiscent of 2006 here, 1.70" in Oct, almost nothing in Nov. Oct 2018 had 1.99", so far nothing in Nov.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

-PNA now getting sheared out and stuff. Kind of ridiculous.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

[raindancewx]

In the context of all the recent El Ninos in November, that warmth east of Japan/Russia is really unusual.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It seems like Mountain Torque.. 

[raindancewx]

Warmest waters (+5C to +6C) getting awfully close to coming up in Nino 3 or 1.2.

SOI is waking up. Looks pretty negative for the next 3-5 days too.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
18 Nov 2018	1009.55	1009.50	-18.01	-0.76	-2.29
17 Nov 2018	1009.46	1010.55	-25.26	-0.18	-2.26
16 Nov 2018	1010.92	1010.25	-14.06	0.96	-1.96
15 Nov 2018	1012.26	1009.65	-1.72	1.84	-1.71
14 Nov 2018	1011.45	1008.65	-0.51	2.43	-1.56
13 Nov 2018	1011.49	1008.20	2.61	3.16	-1.59
12 Nov 2018	1011.85	1009.05	-0.51	3.98	-1.74
11 Nov 2018	1012.94	1008.30	11.20	4.80	-1.96
10 Nov 2018	1012.55	1008.30	8.71	4.74	-2.24
9 Nov 2018	1012.19	1008.45	5.47	4.50	-2.57
8 Nov 2018	1010.65	1007.95	-1.15	4.28	-2.98
7 Nov 2018	1010.91	1008.15	-0.77	4.17	-3.31
6 Nov 2018	1011.79	1008.90	0.06	3.93	-3.48
5 Nov 2018	1011.99	1009.50	-2.48	3.72	-3.49
4 Nov 2018	1012.21	1010.15	-5.22	3.72	-3.58
3 Nov 2018	1012.54	1011.10	-9.17	3.97	-3.80
2 Nov 2018	1013.42	1010.50	0.25	4.50	-3.84
1 Nov 2018	1014.56	1010.35	8.46	4.27	-3.91

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Really crazy this next 1-3 days with -PNA

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data):

11/18: 0.65 / 0.51

11/17: 0.60 / 0.51

11/16: 0.59 / 0.44

11/15: 0.55 / 0.41

11/14: 0.57 / 0.35

 

We should see another round of warming in Nino 3.4 at the end of the month and into early Dec when the MJO related westerlies move out into the central Pacific

[Huffwx]

On 11/15/2018 at 3:37 PM, LibertyBell said:

Oh thats what I originally thought so maybe he was thinking of that one too.  I dont remember any November snowstorm in prior years.

 

I guess it's relative about suppressed storm tracks because in our area we've had a tendency for storms to be more amped up than what models were originally showing- it's been happening for a few years now.

I think all coastal lows have always been too far south per modeling. I 've been tracking model data since 1999.. always too suppressed. 

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1
 07NOV2018     22.1 0.8     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 14NOV2018     22.2 0.6     25.8 0.8     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.9

I'd call that basin wide, all zones w/in 0.2C anomaly of Nino 3.4. The data is centered on the listed date, so Nino 3.4 is around 27.5C so far for November. Here are the recent El Ninos, excluding 1997 and 2015 for comparison - 

 30OCT1991     21.9 0.7     25.9 1.0     27.8 1.1     29.4 0.8
 06NOV1991     22.0 0.7     25.8 0.9     27.8 1.1     29.5 0.8
 13NOV1991     21.9 0.4     25.9 1.0     27.8 1.1     29.5 0.9

 02NOV1994     22.1 0.9     25.7 0.7     27.8 1.1     29.6 1.0
 09NOV1994     22.1 0.7     26.0 1.0     27.9 1.3     29.5 0.9
 16NOV1994     22.3 0.7     25.8 0.8     27.8 1.1     29.6 1.0

 30OCT2002     21.9 0.7     26.3 1.4     28.3 1.7     29.9 1.2
 06NOV2002     22.0 0.6     26.2 1.3     28.2 1.6     29.8 1.2
 13NOV2002     21.9 0.4     26.3 1.4     28.3 1.7     29.9 1.3

This is roughly when the 2002 event peaked.

 03NOV2004     21.5 0.3     25.4 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.6 1.0
 10NOV2004     22.0 0.5     25.5 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17NOV2004     22.2 0.5     25.5 0.5     27.3 0.7     29.6 1.0

 01NOV2006     22.4 1.2     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.5 0.9
 08NOV2006     22.5 1.1     25.9 0.9     27.6 0.9     29.6 1.0
 15NOV2006     22.6 1.0     26.1 1.1     27.8 1.2     29.7 1.1

 28OCT2009     21.6 0.5     26.1 1.2     28.1 1.4     30.0 1.3
 04NOV2009     21.8 0.5     26.2 1.3     28.2 1.6     29.9 1.3
 11NOV2009     22.1 0.6     26.2 1.2     28.2 1.5     29.9 1.3

 29OCT2014     21.8 0.6     25.8 0.9     27.3 0.6     29.4 0.8
 05NOV2014     21.9 0.5     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 12NOV2014     22.4 0.9     25.8 0.9     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.9

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looking at things today, the El Nino will probably wane in late Winter. 

[raindancewx]

I think in some ways, the "Western" part of the event already has started to fall off. I don't think Nov is going to come in at second highest on record for Nino 4 for instance, the way October did.