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Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

The high here for 11/1-11/16 looks like it will be about 56.5F, -4F against 1931-2017 for the same period. Will be interesting to see what happens after that. The next big -SOI burst looks like it will start around 11/15 going by the ECMWF which should re-activate the sub tropical jet again and change the pattern.

The JAMSTEC should be out this week - will be good to see what it has. Also, curious to see if the weeklies show Nino 3.4 weakening like Tropical Tidbits has in recent days. The look on Tropical Tidbits is starting to look more east-centered to me, although the core is not in Nino 1.2. The waters by Japan are still warmer than the waters south of Alaska...so still a ways to get to a positive PDO if it is going to come.

Y2ltjdv.png

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raindancewx

raindancewx

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I went below average for the (immediate) NE US for total snowfall, mostly because I don't think Dec/Mar will be snowy this year in the NE. Jan-Feb will be near normal if had to guess. If either of those assumptions is wrong, it could easily be above average in the NE.  I do think a lot of the SE and high terrain / lake effect areas of the NE will be slightly above normal for snowfall. I'm mostly basing this on trying to blend together the snow anomaly maps from my analog years which included some real duds in the NE like 1994-95. My outlook (from mid-Oct) is here if you are curious - it did have a lot of cold in the middle of the US (relatively) for Oct-Nov even though I wasn't really trying to forecast Fall with the winter analogs.   https://www.scribd.com/document/390797995/Winter-2018-19-Outlook

One of the other things I use for the NE for snow is just what I expect locally where I know more about the patterns v. the relationship for the NE. A wet Summer before an El Nino winter favors heavy snow here in Oct-May. A wet August & October before an El Nino winter favors heavy snow in March here. A cold Oct and a cold Nov favors March here for cold. The big +NAO October readings favor a cold Jan/Mar here. Heavy rain in Jun-Oct in any year favors a snowy winter here, especially in an El Nino. Keep in mind our top snowfall month will typically account for 40-60% of our total snowfall here, so the 8.9" below means 15-22" historically, but I only went 12-18", as our long-term mean is 9.6".

Q1sskkT.png

Once you're over 6 inches of rain for June-Oct rainfall here in an El Nino every winter on record is average or snowy here, and we were at 7.39".

1kyex1v.png

Typically when the SW does very well for snow in an El Nino, the NE coastal plain does poorly. See for yourself - keep in mind most of the signals for my area imply 12-18 inches of snow. You can do these plots for DC, NYC, Philly or Boston, and the curve is pretty similar. 1972-73 and 2006-07 are my top El Nino snowfall years...and pretty crap in the NE. 2002 and 2009 were great in the NE, and pretty crap for Albuquerque.

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weathafella

weathafella

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On 11/8/2018 at 4:02 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Excellent. Can't wait to read it after I post mine next week.

I don’t get the aversion to looking at others.  Would you like your doctor to not review your medical record that has opinions of others?  I understand you’re doing this for fun but if you were getting paid it would seem like meteorological negligence/malpractice.

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griteater

griteater

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The AVHRR numerical data for Nino 3.4 hasn't updated since 11/8.  Tropical Tidbits has it down to 0.44.  The Euro doesn't show any westerly wind anomalies over the central Pacific over the next 10 days.  The next round of warming will likely have to wait until later in the month when the tropical forcing becomes more favorable for westerly anomalies

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raindancewx

raindancewx

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The weeklies are on board with the weakening in Nino 3.4 Tropical Tidbits has shown lately. However, Nino 1.2 has spiked to the level of the other zones, so November is starting with more of a basin wide look. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1
 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1
 07NOV2018     22.1 0.8     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 05NOV2014     21.9 0.5     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 08NOV2006     22.5 1.1     25.9 0.9     27.6 0.9     29.6 1.0

The recent week is almost a dead on blend of 2014/2006.

2009, 2004, 2002, 2015 were all pretty different in early November.  2009 was +1.1 in Nino 3.4 v. 1.2 for this week. 

06NOV2002     22.0 0.6     26.2 1.3     28.2 1.6     29.8 1.2
10NOV2004     22.0 0.5     25.5 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
04NOV2009     21.8 0.5     26.2 1.3     28.2 1.6     29.9 1.3
04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7

For the North Pacific, whatever the implications are, I think you have to look pretty hard at 1994, 2004, and 2006, those years had at least some warmth in both the NE and NW Pacific in November, and I'd say of the two closest weekly setups since 1990 to Nov 7 2018, 2006 is closer than 2014.

qM7bZui.png

7qZa6hN.png

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, weathafella said:

I don’t get the aversion to looking at others.  Would you like your doctor to not review your medical record that has opinions of others?  I understand you’re doing this for fun but if you were getting paid it would seem like meteorological negligence/malpractice.

Firstly, I don't think my track record reflects that. I obviously research plenty and soak up a lot of information from this forum, which I cite in the outlook...however I like to develop my own formulation and it works for me. But like I said.....I incorporate other thoughts, obviously...for instance, Will provided the impetus for the piece on the Scandinavian ridging as a precursor to poleward heat flux.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Do changes at this point matter regarding winter?  I mean if December has a major change  the lag brings us to March or later...so I think the future effects more the tale end of winter or more applicable spring.

Not really imo......the subsurface usually translates eastward. My main take way is el nino is nearly mature. He has been saying that it was becoming less east based all fall, but none of the modoki tools reflect that.

Eventually it will, but utility and relevance is waning.

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weathafella

weathafella

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Firstly, I don't think my track record reflects that. I obviously research plenty and soak up a lot of information from this forum, which I cite in the outlook...however I like to develop my own formulation and it work for me. But like I said.....I incorporate other thoughts, obviously...for instance, Will provided the impetus for the piece on the Scandinavian ridging as a precursor to poleward heat flux.

That’s not the point.  To me looking at everything increases the likelihood of a successful forecast.  There’s no question you put the time and research in.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That’s not the point.  To me looking at everything increases the likelihood of a successful forecast.  There’s no question you put the time and research in.

I think that I have a pretty good idea where everyone is going with their outlooks without reading them, but understood. Its kind of like my reward after the work is done, too...sitting back and reflecting on the work of others.

But like you said...I'm not a pro.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, griteater said:

The AVHRR numerical data for Nino 3.4 hasn't updated since 11/8.  Tropical Tidbits has it down to 0.44.  The Euro doesn't show any westerly wind anomalies over the central Pacific over the next 10 days.  The next round of warming will likely have to wait until later in the month when the tropical forcing becomes more favorable for westerly anomalies

Weak peak.

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Posted
10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Do changes at this point matter regarding winter?  I mean if December has a major change  the lag brings us to March or later...so I think the future effects more the tale end of winter or more applicable spring.

There is pretty much no chance the subsurface can wane before February. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

There's plenty of examples of the pattern going against ENSO, El Nino through February Yes

Still not the point.  Right now the pattern here is rather ninoesque.  But you’re right the pattern doesn’t have to be.  But my point is Niño through February only means my spring will suck even more than usual.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

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Long-term, it isn't El Nino temps in 3.4 that correspond best to temperatures in the US in most places. For the SW, El Nino temps are best predicted by how warm the prior winter was in Nino 3.4, cold Nino 3.4 the prior winter heavily favors cold, much more than 3.4 surface temperatures in the winter itself.

zAxgq2q.png

For the SE and NW, the PDO is the best indicator if you look at the correlation maps. It's a much better indicator than Nino 3.4 for temps in those areas, as well as the NE.

Deg94kH.png

For the NE, it is a blend of the AMO/PDO/ENSO structure. The real tricky area is the Northern Plains where none of the indicators are that strong individually. The NAO has influence too, but like the PDO it is primarily a way to drive cold South. I'm also not a huge fan of the MEI. Klaus always bad-mouths the traditional SOI, but they have similar predictive power honestly.

aYuRAxj.png

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raindancewx

raindancewx

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I think this event lasts longer than most, maybe into Summer, but then it does fall apart. We'll have to see. I'm not comfortable on a call for next winter yet.

Nate Mantua's PDO (JISAO) index actually went up for October, which is unusual, since the NOAA PDO index went down and they are highly correlated (r-squared like 0.85). He sent this out earlier today.

PDO Index values for 2018
 
January    0.70
February  0.37
March      -0.05
April          0.11
May           0.11
June         -0.04
July           0.11
August      0.18
September 0.09
October     0.26
 
Nate

El Ninos with similar PDO values in October (-0.24 to +0.76) include 1958, 1972, 1982, 1991, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009. Pretty mixed bag there. My analog blend of 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 had a PDO value of -0.28 for October, so I'm fairly happy with it. 1972, 2004, 2006 are huge winters for moisture in the SW for what it is worth, with 1958/1982 pretty good too.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I think this event lasts longer than most, maybe into Summer, but then it does fall apart. We'll have to see. I'm not comfortable on a call for next winter yet.

Nate Mantua's PDO (JISAO) index actually went up for October, which is unusual, since the NOAA PDO index went down and they are highly correlated (r-squared like 0.85). He sent this out earlier today.

PDO Index values for 2018
 
January    0.70
February  0.37
March      -0.05
April          0.11
May           0.11
June         -0.04
July           0.11
August      0.18
September 0.09
October     0.26
 
Nate

El Ninos with similar PDO values in October (-0.24 to +0.76) include 1958, 1972, 1982, 1991, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009. Pretty mixed bag there. My analog blend of 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 had a PDO value of -0.28 for October, so I'm fairly happy with it. 1972, 2004, 2006 are huge winters for moisture in the SW for what it is worth, with 1958/1982 pretty good too.

I wish they could standardize these indexes better...its maddening to have conflicting data sets.

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