Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 up again to +1.39 on the AVHRR daily for Oct31

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I don't know why I haven't been excited about the subsurface.. it does look like +ENSO conditions will continue through next year, for some reason it's weak

[raindancewx]

The subsurface readings for 100W-180W, for the top 300m came in warmer than September, as expected - and in line with the animations of the warm waters moving east.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Equtorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C)
YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W 
2018    8     0.75      0.73       0.81
2018    9     1.03      1.06       1.12
2018   10     1.20      1.38       1.59

The closest blend in the 100W-180W zone for Aug to Oct is 1991 (x2), 2002 (x3). That blend actually looks pretty close to what I think will happen in November.

Subsurface	August	Sept	October
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
1991	0.49	0.6	1.41
1991	0.49	0.6	1.41
Mean	0.83	1.09	1.60
2018	0.81	1.12	1.59

The anti-logs for Aug-Oct show a near opposite pattern too, which is good indication that the blend is probably about right for November, even with 1991, the Pinatubo year in there. The blend of 1991 and 2002 is fairly similar to my outlook for temps too, except the NE/SE are flipped.

That +1.59 subsurface means this could (but probably won't?) end up as a pretty powerful El Nino, all things being equal. Based on the historical relationship between the Oct subsurface and DJF anomalies v. 1951-2010, there is an 80% chance of the DJF value coming between +0.9C and +2.1C, with an expected value of +1.5C. Against the warmer more recent 30-year means, you knock off 0.1, so +0.8 to +2.0. The only Octobers ahead in the 1979-2017 data are 1982, 1997, 2002 and 2015.

These are the most negative Aug-Oct subsurface years for Nov -

[40/70 Benchmark]

If this el nino event peaks at 1.5C tri monthly, then I'll change my screen name to raindancewxII.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The subsurface warmth has definitely been warming regions 3.4 and 3 pretty rapidly, but as I have been saying....still not breaching region 1.2.
Modoki all the way.

                               1.2                   3                          3.4                       4

03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1

21OCT2009     21.2 0.3     25.8 0.8     27.7 1.0     29.8 1.2

 

25OCT2006     22.7 1.6     26.1 1.1     27.6 0.9     29.6 1.0

 

26OCT1994     21.7 0.7     25.6 0.6     27.6 1.0     29.5 0.9

Much closer to 2009 over 2006.

 

Like I said before when folks were sweating the 1.2 warming...its unstable, and cooled right back off....poof.

However the warm punch is good news for the mid atl because we are now likely to make moderate....I'd say 1.1-1.2C tri monthly.

[raindancewx]

Nino 3.4 is up to +1.4C according to Griteater. Probably not as low of a chance as you think of hitting +1.5 now in that zone. Doesn't seem to be weakening. I've been trying to point out for two months now that the models showing a long-lasting or double El Nino may not be crazy. Those events tend to peak late. This event still has at least another few weeks to grow in strength. The westward extension of the subsurface heat is draining to the East, the longer it does that, the less and less it will become like 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014. The next set of +3C waters seem closest to surfacing pretty far East. That should warm up Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 pretty fast. For what its worth, Nino 1.2 had been negative, almost uninterrupted, from essentially August 2016 to Sept 2017, so snapping that in one month is kind of impressive. When I say hybrid, I mean the warmth, by anomalies looks like it could centered in Nino 3, not 1.2 or 3.4/4.

I think my analogs for October, at least in the ENSO zone did pretty well for the structure of the El Nino. The core of the event is around 120W so far, Modokis are around 160-180W typically. East based to me means 90W centered, or east.

This El Nino formed west to east at the surface which is unusual because Nino 1.2 was severely cold last winter. The box to the right of the right black line has warmed and it is filling in right of the right yellow line. The warmth is clearly getting into Nino 1.2, it just isn't quite there yet. If anything, Nino 4 seems like it could cool fairly soon.

I've also tried to point this out, the monthly Nino 1.2 tends to run warmer than the weeklies in October for whatever reason, it may end up near 21.3-21.5C officially.

I'll look at the objective best matches for the four Nino zones in October when the data comes in. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

vs last month:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

October 2009 saw the same spike in 1.2.

07OCT2009     20.1-0.5     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.4 0.7
 14OCT2009     21.0 0.2     25.6 0.7     27.5 0.8     29.6 1.0
 21OCT2009     21.2 0.3     25.8 0.8     27.7 1.0     29.8 1.2
 28OCT2009     21.6 0.5     26.1 1.2     28.1 1.4     30.0 1.3

I don't think its that important....the event is maturing.

Not a big deal, but like I said, it will probably make moderate now....which is the big take away.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Nino 3.4 is up to +1.4C according to Griteater. Probably not as low of a chance as you think of hitting +1.5 now in that zone. Doesn't seem to be weakening. I've been trying to point out for two months now that the models showing a long-lasting or double El Nino may not be crazy. Those events tend to peak late. This event still has at least another few weeks to grow in strength. The westward extension of the subsurface heat is draining to the East, the longer it does that, the less and less it will become like 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014. The next set of +3C waters seem closest to surfacing pretty far East. That should warm up Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 pretty fast. For what its worth, Nino 1.2 had been negative, almost uninterrupted, from essentially August 2016 to Sept 2017, so snapping that in one month is kind of impressive. When I say hybrid, I mean the warmth, by anomalies looks like it could centered in Nino 3, not 1.2 or 3.4/4.

I think my analogs for October, at least in the ENSO zone did pretty well for the structure of the El Nino. The core of the event is around 120W so far, Modokis are around 160-180W typically. East based to me means 90W centered, or east.

This El Nino formed west to east at the surface which is unusual because Nino 1.2 was severely cold last winter. The box to the right of the right black line has warmed and it is filling in right of the right yellow line. The warmth is clearly getting into Nino 1.2, it just isn't quite there yet. If anything, Nino 4 seems like it could cool fairly soon.

I've also tried to point this out, the monthly Nino 1.2 tends to run warmer than the weeklies in October for whatever reason, it may end up near 21.3-21.5C officially.

I'll look at the objective best matches for the four Nino zones in October when the data comes in. 

So if it becomes less like those years...then what years would it resemble instead? (Of course I'm asking since those other years were great for my region, lol)

[40/70 Benchmark]

The warmest sub surface anomalies are progressing east of region 3.4 now, so its not an unlimited ceiling. Most of the greatest anomalies are shifting into region 3. And not all of it will reach the surface necessarily.

This is the el nino event's push toward maturity.

2009 featured a peak weekly anomaly of .7C in region 1.2, so I don't know where this notion that all of the warm anomalies are supposed to remain west came from. They progressed eastward as it matured even in the king of all modoki events.

[raindancewx]

2009 started east and went west. That is my problem with it. 2009 and 2018 are like ships passing in opposite directions at the same point, for a brief moment. These are like night and dry trends honestly. Maybe it doesn't matter? But my hunch is it does. 2010 looked most like a classic Modoki late. This event looked most like Modoki...now? There aren't many events that do the West to East thing, where the West warms first in an El Nino.

[OSUmetstud]

The JAS ONI was 0.1. I can't seem to find a single event that started so late which peaked in moderate. Every single one had a JAS of 0.5 or higher. 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

2009 started east and went west. That is my problem with it. 2009 and 2018 are like ships passing in opposite directions at the same point, for a brief moment. These are like night and dry trends honestly. Maybe it doesn't matter? But my hunch is it does. 2010 looked most like a classic Modoki late. This event looked most like Modoki...now? There aren't many events that do the West to East thing, where the West warms first in an El Nino.

In what way do you think it'll matter?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, raindancewx said:

2009 started east and went west. That is my problem with it. 2009 and 2018 are like ships passing in opposite directions at the same point, for a brief moment. These are like night and dry trends honestly. Maybe it doesn't matter? But my hunch is it does. 2010 looked most like a classic Modoki late. This event looked most like Modoki...now? There aren't many events that do the West to East thing, where the West warms first in an El Nino.

It still trended back east as it matured.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The JAS ONI was 0.1. I can't seem to find a single event that started so late which peaked in moderate. Every single one had a JAS of 0.5 or higher. 

 

 

This is why the thought of 1.5 ONI peak is absurd imo.....1.2C is the highest conceivable bounds imo.

[raindancewx]

@OSUmetstud

Part of the issue here is NOAA now bases ONI on 30-year periods that change every five years. Against a constant 1951-2010 mean for JAS (26.74C), the ONI was actually +0.39C in July-Sept. NOAA uses 26.99C for that period now. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Similar years by using a constant base for anomalies for July, Aug, Sept

1976	27.13	26.98	27.02	0.30
1969	27.08	27.02	27.15	0.34
1968	27.58	27.01	26.72	0.36
1977	27.38	26.85	27.12	0.38
2018	27.42	26.94	27.02	0.39
1953	27.43	26.94	27.01	0.39
1990	27.38	27.07	26.94	0.39
1993	27.52	26.99	27.07	0.45
1986	27.18	27.17	27.24	0.46
2003	27.50	27.11	26.99	0.46
2006	27.30	27.16	27.32	0.52

A jump well over +1.2 probably would be unprecedented v. 1951-2010 means, but the data says what it says - +0.9C is historically the low end for what the surface was in October.

DJF	1.20	3.00	3.4	4		1.2	3	3.4	4
1951	24.40	26.00	26.77	28.30		0.19	0.41	0.26	0.20
1953	23.25	25.73	27.00	28.37		-0.96	0.14	0.49	0.27
1957	24.84	26.96	28.16	29.02		0.63	1.37	1.65	0.92
1958	23.88	25.58	26.96	28.34		-0.33	-0.01	0.45	0.24
1963	23.75	26.10	27.36	28.33		-0.46	0.51	0.85	0.23
1965	24.53	26.68	27.73	28.74		0.32	1.09	1.22	0.64
1968	24.23	26.15	27.54	29.23		0.02	0.56	1.03	1.13
1969	24.69	26.12	26.92	28.65		0.48	0.53	0.41	0.55
1972	25.64	27.37	28.33	28.93		1.43	1.78	1.82	0.83
1976	24.57	26.46	27.18	28.19		0.36	0.87	0.67	0.09
1977	24.04	25.89	27.15	28.69		-0.17	0.30	0.64	0.59
1982	27.10	28.48	28.79	28.76		2.89	2.89	2.28	0.66
1986	25.35	26.79	27.76	28.73		1.14	1.20	1.25	0.63
1987	24.62	26.32	27.34	28.97		0.41	0.73	0.83	0.87
1991	25.13	27.06	28.40	29.12		0.92	1.47	1.89	1.02
1994	25.06	26.44	27.64	29.14		0.85	0.85	1.13	1.04
1997	27.97	28.72	28.87	28.95		3.76	3.13	2.36	0.85
2002	24.86	26.50	27.50	29.05		0.65	0.91	0.99	0.95
2004	24.29	26.07	27.22	29.16		0.08	0.48	0.71	1.06
2006	24.99	26.46	27.29	29.03		0.78	0.87	0.78	0.93
2009	24.83	26.85	28.14	29.41		0.62	1.26	1.63	1.31
2014	24.40	26.13	27.18	29.15		0.19	0.54	0.67	1.05
2015	26.26	28.23	29.13	29.62		2.05	2.64	2.62	1.52
60 yr	24.21	25.59	26.51	28.10

 

Here is 2009 in JAS v. DJF in Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 (v. 1951-2010 means)

          3.4       1.2

JAS:  +0.8     +1.0   net: warmer east by 0.2

DJF:  +1.6     +0.6   net: colder east by 1.0

The nature of the event clearly went from east-based to start to Modoki. There is no "slosh back" on the net. This event appears to be doing the exact opposite, since JAS was +0.0 in Nino 1.2, but is warming/about to warm. Nino 3.4 may warm too, its just, on net, the core switched from East to West, and now it is switching from West to East, even if we don't reach basin wide or obviously 1997 status, it is opposite, at least for now.

 

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The JAS ONI was 0.1. I can't seem to find a single event that started so late which peaked in moderate. Every single one had a JAS of 0.5 or higher. 

 

 

There have been cases of 3.4 warming by another 1.0C or 1.1C from the JAS value, though.  So if that happens this time, the peak would be flirting with or getting into moderate territory.

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

@OSUmetstud

Part of the issue here is NOAA now bases ONI on 30-year periods that change every five years. Against a constant 1951-2010 mean for JAS (26.74C), the ONI was actually +0.39C in July-Sept. NOAA uses 26.99C for that period now. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Similar years by using a constant base for anomalies for July, Aug, Sept

1976	27.13	26.98	27.02	0.30
1969	27.08	27.02	27.15	0.34
1968	27.58	27.01	26.72	0.36
1977	27.38	26.85	27.12	0.38
2018	27.42	26.94	27.02	0.39
1953	27.43	26.94	27.01	0.39
1990	27.38	27.07	26.94	0.39
1993	27.52	26.99	27.07	0.45
1986	27.18	27.17	27.24	0.46
2003	27.50	27.11	26.99	0.46
2006	27.30	27.16	27.32	0.52

A jump well over +1.2 probably would be unprecedented v. 1951-2010 means, but the data says what it says - +0.9C is historically the low end for what the surface was in October.

DJF	1.20	3.00	3.4	4		1.2	3	3.4	4
1951	24.40	26.00	26.77	28.30		0.19	0.41	0.26	0.20
1953	23.25	25.73	27.00	28.37		-0.96	0.14	0.49	0.27
1957	24.84	26.96	28.16	29.02		0.63	1.37	1.65	0.92
1958	23.88	25.58	26.96	28.34		-0.33	-0.01	0.45	0.24
1963	23.75	26.10	27.36	28.33		-0.46	0.51	0.85	0.23
1965	24.53	26.68	27.73	28.74		0.32	1.09	1.22	0.64
1968	24.23	26.15	27.54	29.23		0.02	0.56	1.03	1.13
1969	24.69	26.12	26.92	28.65		0.48	0.53	0.41	0.55
1972	25.64	27.37	28.33	28.93		1.43	1.78	1.82	0.83
1976	24.57	26.46	27.18	28.19		0.36	0.87	0.67	0.09
1977	24.04	25.89	27.15	28.69		-0.17	0.30	0.64	0.59
1982	27.10	28.48	28.79	28.76		2.89	2.89	2.28	0.66
1986	25.35	26.79	27.76	28.73		1.14	1.20	1.25	0.63
1987	24.62	26.32	27.34	28.97		0.41	0.73	0.83	0.87
1991	25.13	27.06	28.40	29.12		0.92	1.47	1.89	1.02
1994	25.06	26.44	27.64	29.14		0.85	0.85	1.13	1.04
1997	27.97	28.72	28.87	28.95		3.76	3.13	2.36	0.85
2002	24.86	26.50	27.50	29.05		0.65	0.91	0.99	0.95
2004	24.29	26.07	27.22	29.16		0.08	0.48	0.71	1.06
2006	24.99	26.46	27.29	29.03		0.78	0.87	0.78	0.93
2009	24.83	26.85	28.14	29.41		0.62	1.26	1.63	1.31
2014	24.40	26.13	27.18	29.15		0.19	0.54	0.67	1.05
2015	26.26	28.23	29.13	29.62		2.05	2.64	2.62	1.52
60 yr	24.21	25.59	26.51	28.10

 

Here is 2009 in JAS v. DJF in Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 (v. 1951-2010 means)

          3.4       1.2

JAS:  +0.8     +1.0   net: warmer east by 0.2

DJF:  +1.6     +0.6   net: colder east by 1.0

The nature of the event clearly went from east-based to start to Modoki. There is no "slosh back" on the net. This event appears to be doing the exact opposite, since JAS was +0.0 in Nino 1.2, but is warming/about to warm. Nino 3.4 may warm too, its just, on net, the core switched from East to West, and now it is switching from West to East, even if we don't reach basin wide or obviously 1997 status, it is opposite, at least for now.

 

El Nino exists as a relative difference to the Global and PAC SST, why shouldn't we adjust for warming oceans? 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, Hoosier said:

There have been cases of 3.4 warming by another 1.0C or 1.1C from the JAS value, though.  So if that happens this time, the peak would be flirting with or getting into moderate territory.

Sure, I'm just saying there's nothing in the data set that's been this low in JAS that jumped into moderate from here. Anything can happen and I'm certainly not a Nino expert. 

[raindancewx]

My point is even though this event may get classified against the modern threshold as a weak El Nino, the actual SSTs are pretty similar to some of the events that became moderate historically. Speaking for at least the SW, I find that the actual SSTs in the Nino zones against a constant base are far more predictive for the weather than the changing anomalies NOAA uses. I haven't looked in other areas though.

[raindancewx]

If you use actual SSTs in Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2, and make the assumption of an El Nino for DJF, there are really three options in the historical data from a similar set of observations to JAS in 2018. Nino 3.4 can warm with Nino 1.2 cooling. That is 1958. Nino 3.4 can warm, while Nino 1.2 remains neutral. That is 1968. Or you can have a lot of warming in Nino 3.4, but even more in Nino 1.2. That is 1986, which also happens be the only year with low solar of the three. Given the subsurface heat moving East...I like 1986. It also matches local/national weather much better than the other two. 1968 was hot in the center of the US in October, 1958 was hot where it was coldest in October.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

My point is even though this event may get classified against the modern threshold as a weak El Nino, the actual SSTs are pretty similar to some of the events that became moderate historically. Speaking for at least the SW, I find that the actual SSTs in the Nino zones against a constant base are far more predictive for the weather than the changing anomalies NOAA uses. I haven't looked in other areas though.

That doesn't matter. ENSO is anomaly based.

I'm going to side with NOAA on this...call me crazy.

[raindancewx]

I really don't get the "coldest winter evah" rah-rah stuff for the NE I see for the sunspot stuff. I use solar data in my analogs, but it seems to mostly impact certain things about storm tracks, cloud formation and storm positions, you have to combine it with other things. The -NAO seems to really be a function of the Atlantic and solar activity as a blend, more than one or the other.

If solar matters, we have the opposite of 1957, 1958, 1968, 2002 and 2014 for solar, those are cold/modoki winters.

If the PDO matters, we don't have the major positive PDO readings of 1986, 2002, 2014, etc. The PDO if anything looks to be trending more negative which is a warm signal for the East.

If El Nino formation patterns matter we are opposite of 2009, and many other severe winters that started in Nino 1.2 in July-Sept.

If the QBO matters, the metric should be positive soon.

If ENSO type matters, we have a subsurface trending very warm and more easterly, even if that just takes the event to a basin-wide or hybrid look instead of Nino 1.2 focus.

If the Arctic matters, you have vastly less sea-ice right now than 1976, 1977, 1986, 2002, or even 2009 or 2014.

The Atlantic is also incredibly warm by the East Coast and seems like it would promote warm lows throughout winter, even if it leads to more storminess and precipitation. You can already see the effect with how much warmer the East was than in October 2002.

Boston (+2.5F warmer high), Philly (+1.5F warmer high), Atlanta (+4.3F warmer high), Richmond (+4.7F warmer high), Jacksonville (+1.6 warmer high), all finished warmer than October 2002, presumably due to the Atlantic being warmer on the coast. 

 

[showmethesnow]

On 10/31/2018 at 8:46 PM, raindancewx said:

The Canadian has shifted to a stronger, longer-lasting, and more-east centered El Nino.

 

 

Couple questions here. Considering there is a lag time with ENSO forcing wouldn't a better SST anomaly be for Nov-Jan? Also, doesn't a particular ENSO state bear different results depending on whether it is leading into the winter/early winter vs. the middle/tail end of winter?

Looking at the above I think I would still consider that a Modoki even though there is a patch of higher anomalies just east of the 3.4 region. Wouldn't surprise me if we crunched the hard numbers on it that is what they would say as well.

*Weatherbell doesn't really have a good break down of the CANSIPS and I would really like to see a month to month evolution of the SST's. Is the site you are using above a paysite? If not could I get the link? Thanks.

 

[griteater]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

*Weatherbell doesn't really have a good break down of the CANSIPS and I would really like to see a month to month evolution of the SST's. Is the site you are using above a paysite? If not could I get the link? Thanks.

Those images are from tropicaltidbits...freebies

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index for the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) - the warm spike continues

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

10/30: 1.23 / 1.03

10/29: 0.98 / 0.86

10/28: 0.54 / 0.60

 

The recent warm spike is likely due to the West Pac typhoon that kicked off a brief westerly wind burst on its south side (Oct 20-28), which then rolled east with MJO related tropical forcing.  Any westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific are going to cause Nino 3.4 warming given the structure of the surface and subsurface warmth.  After this MJO passage, we should see at least some level of cooling, all part of the back and forth slosh with ENSO.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have never once heard of the origin point of el nino being of any importance.

I really don't care how warm region 1.2 was in July, but that's just me. The fact of the matter is that region 1.2 has seen warm spurts in even the most modoki of el nino events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index for the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data) - the warm spike continues

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

10/30: 1.23 / 1.03

10/29: 0.98 / 0.86

10/28: 0.54 / 0.60

 

The recent warm spike is likely due to the West Pac typhoon that kicked off a brief westerly wind burst on its south side (Oct 20-28), which then rolled east with MJO related tropical forcing.  Any westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific are going to cause Nino 3.4 warming given the structure of the surface and subsurface warmth.  After this MJO passage, we should see at least some level of cooling, all part of the back and forth slosh with ENSO.

 

 

Great post..thank you. I never would have made the connection between the cyclone and the recent WWB that has been fueling the growth of el nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I really don't get the "coldest winter evah" rah-rah stuff for the NE I see for the sunspot stuff. I use solar data in my analogs, but it seems to mostly impact certain things about storm tracks, cloud formation and storm positions, you have to combine it with other things. The -NAO seems to really be a function of the Atlantic and solar activity as a blend, more than one or the other.

If solar matters, we have the opposite of 1957, 1958, 1968, 2002 and 2014 for solar, those are cold/modoki winters.

But similar to 1976, 1977 and 2009.

If the PDO matters, we don't have the major positive PDO readings of 1986, 2002, 2014, etc. The PDO if anything looks to be trending more negative which is a warm signal for the East.

I'm willing to bet that the PDO will elevate as el nino grows.

If El Nino formation patterns matter we are opposite of 2009, and many other severe winters that started in Nino 1.2 in July-Sept.

Again, this criteria is only of significance to you. This event is solidly between 2006 and 2009 on the modoki scale...not opposite of 2009.

If the QBO matters, the metric should be positive soon.

Yes, very similar to 1977. The QBO is but one factor, and while a +QBO is less favorable, it is not prohibitive to blocking, nor a cold/ snowy east. Nor is it prohibitive to a very favorable PAC regime. I think 2004 was similar QBO, as well.

I may be wrong on this, but I think there is some research the transition area (weak west) from east to westerly QBO is also favorable for blocking. I could be wrong, though.

If ENSO type matters, we have a subsurface trending very warm and more easterly, even if that just takes the event to a basin-wide or hybrid look instead of Nino 1.2 focus.

Okay. Agreed...this will not be as extreme a modoki as 2009.

If the Arctic matters, you have vastly less sea-ice right now than 1976, 1977, 1986, 2002, or even 2009 or 2014.

Doesn't a dearth of sea ice correlate to a more high latitude blocking? Regardless, why would sea ice comparisons to 2014, 2002 and 1986 matter much, since they were Pacific driven harsh eastern winters?

The Atlantic is also incredibly warm by the East Coast and seems like it would promote warm lows throughout winter, even if it leads to more storminess and precipitation. You can already see the effect with how much warmer the East was than in October 2002.

Do you have literature regarding this? I have lived here my entire life, and first of all, the ssts are highly malleable, cool rapidly one the temperature does. Secondly, they are really only relevant when there is a coastal storm to shift the winds to the onshore NE trajectory....otherwise the predominate flow is from west to east, but you know this. Even during coastal storms, the marine layer will only translate about 30 miles inland in even in the most anomalously strong accompanying easterly fetch. All you need id a well placed HP, and its half of that, if lucky via some ageostrophic magic.

My main take away from this is increased baroclinic potential for cyclogensis, which likely translates to more NE snow in the absence of an obnoxiously mild regime.

Boston (+2.5F warmer high), Philly (+1.5F warmer high), Atlanta (+4.3F warmer high), Richmond (+4.7F warmer high), Jacksonville (+1.6 warmer high), all finished warmer than October 2002, presumably due to the Atlantic being warmer on the coast. 

 

Finally, If one of the most prominent volcanic eruptions on the globe matters, the 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 el nino events are pretty useless as analogs, however you continue to cite them as viable, while discarding 2009 due to the location of the first observed positive sst anomaly during the evolution of that particular ENSO event. 

[ORH_wxman]

I agree with most of your points, Ray.

 

The biggest takeaway from this ENSO event is twofold for me:

1. It is NOT east based. It is central/west based...whether you classify it as central or west is almost purely a semantical matter for the downstream sensible wx aspect in North America. The important detail is that is is not an EP El Nino.

2. It is weak...or low end moderate at most. This matters in relation to the formation of the STJ. The STJ is also affected by position as well...it tends to be more influential in EP El Ninos but even in modokis like 2009 it is present. The weaker events will produce a weaker STJ and that obviously matters for snow events on the east coast. Weaker STJ also tends to have colder winters in the east.

 

None of this guarantees anything obviously.