Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The Euro from what I've seen has a of skill at forecasting temperatures for the immediate month ahead, but not so much for the more distant months (understandable, more can go wrong), even though it is still probably better than the other models. The Canadian is sort of the same way.

Look at the Euro October forecast from 9/1 v. 10/1 - the magnitudes and spatial patterns are much close to what has been observed to date.

Sure, its not perfect....but in order for your outlook to verify in this portion of the country, it would need to be a$$ backwards, 180 degrees wrong.

I don't think that is going to be the case considering its outlook not only fairy closely matches most other guidance, but is fairly representative of weak el nino climo. It has been relatively consistent for several months, as well.

[raindancewx]

It's kind of a special weak El Nino though. FMA might be +1.5C or more when all those +4 to +5C readings make it to the surface. I don't buy DJF getting that warm. But that's actually the aspect that makes me most nervous: I don't have a good mechanism for knowing when those waters surface. You start to get into 1958, 1983, 1992, 1998, 2016 type stuff. Those waters are going to surface somewhere.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

It's kind of a special weak El Nino though. FMA might be +1.5C or more when all those +4 to +5C readings make it to the surface. I don't buy DJF getting that warm. But that's actually the aspect that makes me most nervous: I don't have a good mechanism for knowing when those waters surface. You start to get into 1958, 1983, 1992, 1998, 2016 type stuff. Those waters are going to surface somewhere.

You don't start getting into 1983, 1998 or 2016......in no way, shape, or form. Those are the strongest events on record.

This is not going to be strong.

The highest tri monthly peak that I can fathom based upon climatological precedence is about +1.2.

Not all of the that warmth always makes it to the surface, either.

[raindancewx]

You're thinking of those years as +2 to +2.5 ONI monstrosities in DJF. By FMA, they were only +1.5C or so. I'm not saying this becomes a Super El Nino, but years with increasing El Nino magnitude in Spring are pretty unusual. We'll see. 1940, 1941, 1958, 1969, 1977, 1987, 2015 are the Springs between two El Nino winters. There really isn't any indication this event will collapse like 2015, 1997, or 1982 at this point. Even by this time in 2015 there was no real warmth below 150m.

Looks a lot warmer than 2014 to me.

Not nearly as warm as 2015

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not nearly as east-based as 2015, either.

I see what you are saying in that el nino may not die, but I don't think it means a ton for this winter....maybe increases the likelihood of a two year event.

[uncle W]

latest MEI number was +0.506...big rise from lasts months value...

using the MEI scale there were five years when the MEI peaked in the Dec/Jan period...All very good mid Atlantic and or north east winters...most models have the el nino peak during the winter and having the MEI peak in the Dec/Jan period has been good in the past...1978-79 and 1993-94 were not el nino years but weak positive mei years peaking in DEC/JAN...

season..........D/J mei.....DJF oni

1957-58......+1.474.......+1.8

2002-03......+1.180.......+1.1

1963-64......+0.856.......+1.1

1978-79......+0.598........-0.1

1993-94......+0.334.......+0.1

[raindancewx]

One more new subsurface frame now - the heat looks like it is migrating east and up to me.

1957-58 is probably going to be the top SOI analog for July-Oct given the big SOI spike of recent days, which was present in 1957 too. Like I said before, the MEI is a useful indicator, it just lags a bit honestly. The SOI being an excellent match to 1957 sort of predicted the MEI trend I'd say.

Year	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	ABS
2018	1.8	-6.7	-8.5
1957	1.4	-8.2	-9.4	-0.3	4.3
1990	5.2	-4.4	-7.3	-1.2	7.5
1986	2.0	-7.0	-4.7	6.6	12.7
1948	0.8	-4.0	-7.1	6.6	13.5
2004	-6.4	-6.7	-3.2	-3.0	14.7
1932	1.1	4.9	-8.3	-4.1	14.8
2003	3.2	-1.2	-1.6	-2.9	14.9
1980	-1.6	1.5	-4.7	-0.9	16.3

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still not much subsurface warmth in 1.2. Mostly region 3.

[raindancewx]

WT360 has a pretty good track record on seasonal stuff, and their outlook has similar snow anomalies to what I have.

http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Star-Date-8-October-2018-Monday-5414

I think I saw someone say Accuweather is using 1986, 1994, 2006 as their analog blend.

Also - here is what the Weather Channel has - https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-10-13-november-december-january-2019-temperature-outlook

I'd say by Wednesday, the mountains here will be running +20 to +30% above normal already. Some will have two feet of snow from the current set up.

Weatherbell of course is using 2002, 2006, 2009, 2014, which is very cold in the SE, less so in the NE.

[The_Global_Warmer]

If the sub surface wasnt as weak.  

 

The equatorial winds have been great for bringing about strong full basin nino conditions. 

 

[raindancewx]

I would call that our first month of El Nino conditions?

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9

My high today was 42F or 43F, which is broadly speaking, historic cold here for October. For 1931-2017 Octobers (87 years * 31 days) we've had 12 days with a high of under 43F. Less than 0.5% of October highs were colder. Coldest October high since 1931 is 36F.

Last year, we had only 18 highs that were 43F or colder for the entirety of the 10/1-05/31 cold season.

Also -

 

[weathafella]

Breaking out Ben Noll...lol.  

[raindancewx]

The Ben Noll thing is actually the first depiction of European SSTs for the winter I've seen with the basin wide view. The weather.us site makes you zoom in to SST by continents if you use the free maps.

Years with cold Octobers in the West in El Ninos and a warm East are fairly rare if the warmth in East manages to hold on. 1939 (sort of), 1941, 1951 (sort of), 1969, 1982, 1994. I'm assuming the +4F to +8F anomalies in the East gets mostly, but not completely wiped out, so you need hotter years in the east for October than 2002. Warm West, cold East years are interesting too in El Nino Octobers - 2015 (sort of), 2014 (sort of), 1987, 1979 (sort of), 1977, 1965, 1958 (sort of), 

[weathafella]

I think most of the east is well above for October so far.  A good chunk if not all could be wiped out but my guess is we finish slightly above for the month.   

[raindancewx]

Here is a look at how well the 10/1/2017 European Model runs did for actual temperature anomalies for Winter 2017-18. For December, the East was much colder v. what was shown in October. The SW was much hotter. The Northern Plains much warmer. For January, East was much colder than forecast, and the West was much warmer than forecast. The forecast for February was broadly speaking, useless. The Plains were 10F colder than shown in places, with the east over 5F warmer. I'd give December a C+ (not bad), January a C- and February an F. The forecast on 10/1 for October 2017 was of course quite good (B+), but I'd say even Nov 2017 from Oct 1 2017 was only in the C+ range.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here is a look at how well the 10/1/2017 European Model runs did for actual temperature anomalies for Winter 2017-18. For December, the East was much colder v. what was shown in October. The SW was much hotter. The Northern Plains much warmer. For January, East was much colder than forecast, and the West was much warmer than forecast. The forecast for February was broadly speaking, useless. The Plains were 10F colder than shown in places, with the east over 5F warmer. I'd give December a C+ (not bad), January a C- and February an F. The forecast on 10/1 for October 2017 was of course quite good (B+), but I'd say even Nov 2017 from Oct 1 2017 was only in the C+ range.

 

For me personally, I couldn't care less about that. My only take away is that the the model consensus overwhelmingly corroborates my interpretation of the data, which is also strongly supported by ENSO climatology. IMHO, this is the correct way to utilize model guidance...both within the context of seasonal, and medium range forecasting.

Its not about blindly accepting or discarding their output based upon past performance (not saying you are)....though all else being equal, sure. But optimally, its about knowing how the model has arrived at the solution it has, and whether or not one agrees with it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like last year....models kept trying to build an NAO prematurely in the long range, which I, and many others correctly called BS on because there was no impetus for the change. However once the polar stratosphere began to warm dramatically, there was reason to take the guidance more seriously by the time extreme blocking was modeled in March. I'm sure we had some folks who kept staring at past verification curves for NAO and continued to dismiss, but they were patently wrong to do so in the end.

Interpret data first, and look to guidance for affirmation.

All that being said, you have obviously interpreted the data differently than I, and thus are skeptical of model output that differs...which is fine. I'm just explaining why the past failure of the EURO seasonal outlook in and of itself does not sway me.

[OSUmetstud]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here is a look at how well the 10/1/2017 European Model runs did for actual temperature anomalies for Winter 2017-18. For December, the East was much colder v. what was shown in October. The SW was much hotter. The Northern Plains much warmer. For January, East was much colder than forecast, and the West was much warmer than forecast. The forecast for February was broadly speaking, useless. The Plains were 10F colder than shown in places, with the east over 5F warmer. I'd give December a C+ (not bad), January a C- and February an F. The forecast on 10/1 for October 2017 was of course quite good (B+), but I'd say even Nov 2017 from Oct 1 2017 was only in the C+ range.

 

How did u get those plots from last fall?  They aren't in the dropdown menu. 

[raindancewx]

OSU: You can get the old ECMWF forecasts here https://weather.us/monthly-charts 

Go to Model Run on the left and select an older forecast Then the parameters you want.

I am curious about what the Euro will say on 11/1 for November.

The idea of a warm east / cold west from the 10/1 run for October looks right. By this time in 2002, most of the heat over the East was gone.

1986, like this year had a big jump in the SOI in October after pretty similar July-Sept readings. The 10/1-10/17 SOI is +3.1. Seems to be coinciding with slightly lower Nino 3.4 readings. 

[OSUmetstud]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

OSU: You can get the old ECMWF forecasts here https://weather.us/monthly-charts 

Go to Model Run on the left and select an older forecast Then the parameters you want.

I am curious about what the Euro will say on 11/1 for November.

The idea of a warm east / cold west from the 10/1 run for October looks right. By this time in 2002, most of the heat over the East was gone.

1986, like this year had a big jump in the SOI in October after pretty similar July-Sept readings. The 10/1-10/17 SOI is +3.1. Seems to be coinciding with slightly lower Nino 3.4 readings. 

Thanks.  

The October run last year actually did great for Dec, Jan, and Feb here. March failed because of the Feb strat warm event that caused a completely unpredicted pattern reversal. 

[raindancewx]

This is kind of why I cringe a little when people say "the whole west will be warm". The rains in Arizona have really set the heat back quite a bit since September.

[etudiant]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is kind of why I cringe a little when people say "the whole west will be warm". The rains in Arizona have really set the heat back quite a bit since September.

There seems to be no visible temperature trend here over the past 8 decades, not even an urban heat island effect. Can that be correct?

[raindancewx]

In the Southwest, we have warmer lows than 100 years ago. For highs, some of the months are flat, or even down in some areas due to extra cloudiness, rain and snow limiting our near perpetual sunshine. 5.32" in Phoenix is an incredible number historically for a single month. Easily top ten for 1931-2018. Phoenix averages under 10 inches of rain per year.

As far as this winter goes, Box C (the waters by the Philippines) in the Modoki calculation has a fairly strong correlation to the NAO for the winter. I believe 2009-10 had the lowest Box C reading since 1994-95, and that zone has been warming pretty steadily on the Jamstec EMI data. The period is 1950-51 to 2017-18 winters.

Using absolute value relative to Jan-Sept 2018, the closest 10 years for NAO values are these - 1959,1972,1976,1984,1989,1990,1991,1992,2002,2013.

For July to Sept, these are the closest matches - 1955,1967,1971,1975,1979,1982,1989,1990,1997,2013. Box C looks fairly cool in the context of recent years, but warm, and the July-Sept NAO matches are mostly positive.

[raindancewx]

Another big bulge of warmth is heading up near the border of Nino 3 / 1.2. The SOI going from +20 to +30 to around +0 again should help with that, especially if it continues to drop. The core of the heat seems to be shifting east and toward the surface.

[etudiant]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Another big bulge of warmth is heading up near the border of Nino 3 / 1.2. The SOI going from +20 to +30 to around +0 again should help with that, especially if it continues to drop. The core of the heat seems to be shifting east and toward the surface.

Iirc, the 'heat'is relative, in that the subsurface water is warmer than it normally would be, but still actually colder than the surface waters.

So the effect is less surface cooling than usual as the winds help the deeper water to come up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On October 17, 2018 at 10:35 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Thanks.  

The October run last year actually did great for Dec, Jan, and Feb here. March failed because of the Feb strat warm event that caused a completely unpredicted pattern reversal. 

There were circles that predicted that, actually....unless you mean completely unpredicted by the Euro.

There were some signs in the analog set before the season even started.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On October 18, 2018 at 8:00 PM, raindancewx said:

In the Southwest, we have warmer lows than 100 years ago. For highs, some of the months are flat, or even down in some areas due to extra cloudiness, rain and snow limiting our near perpetual sunshine. 5.32" in Phoenix is an incredible number historically for a single month. Easily top ten for 1931-2018. Phoenix averages under 10 inches of rain per year.

As far as this winter goes, Box C (the waters by the Philippines) in the Modoki calculation has a fairly strong correlation to the NAO for the winter. I believe 2009-10 had the lowest Box C reading since 1994-95, and that zone has been warming pretty steadily on the Jamstec EMI data. The period is 1950-51 to 2017-18 winters.

Using absolute value relative to Jan-Sept 2018, the closest 10 years for NAO values are these - 1959,1972,1976,1984,1989,1990,1991,1992,2002,2013.

For July to Sept, these are the closest matches - 1955,1967,1971,1975,1979,1982,1989,1990,1997,2013. Box C looks fairly cool in the context of recent years, but warm, and the July-Sept NAO matches are mostly positive.

There is def. some support for another Pos NAO season in the mean.....my hunch is that it may be more biased positive early, and negative late....kind of similar to last year. QBO is not as supportive to NAO help, either. The stratosphere is pretty cool, too....some work to do there, def.

[OSUmetstud]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There were circles that predicted that, actually....unless you mean completely unpredicted by the Euro.

There were some signs in the analog set before the season even started.

Yeah I was talking about the euro seasonal. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah I was talking about the euro seasonal. 

Pretty good bet this winter will be better for your area....can't get any worse. :LOL:

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty good bet this winter will be better for your area....can't get any worse. :LOL:

That is true. Last year was the worst