Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[raindancewx]

Subsurface still looks good to me - not really a Modoki look, at least in the near term though, the subsurface heat is surfacing in Nino 1.2/3 which is why this is a basin look right now. I think eventually it turns toward a Modoki look...but not for a while.

Nino 1.2 was 21.3C for the Oct 3 update. That is for 9/30-10/6 since it is centered on 10/3, but let's assume Nino 1.2 stays above 21C in October. Now you blend that in with years that had under 50 sunspots / month for July-June (centered on winter). What do you get? Modoki value is 0.36 for those years, not as extreme as 1968-69 or 2009-10, kind of like 2014-15.

Low Solar	Nino 1.2	Sunspots
1965	21.34	37.1
1976	21.52	23.2
1986	21.27	19.1
1994	21.81	36.9
2006	22.07	20.1
2009	21.34	13.2
Mean	21.56	24.90

I don't think the look for Dec or Dec-Feb is quite right, but I do like the idea the warmest areas in an anomaly sense slowly backing to the West through winter.

[raindancewx]

Even I'm not crazy enough to have predicted a near cat-5 landfall on the FL panhandle, but 1992 was the top SST match in Nino 1.2, 3, 3.4, 4 in August, and 1969 was a very good match in those zones for September, if you look back through this thread. Andrew & Camille...

[BlizzardWx]

With the recent big increase in nino 1+2 temps, this nino is no longer highly west-based, but rather looks more like a basin-wide event for now.

More anomalously warm water just under the surface in nino 1+2 than further west, but if you go deep enough the biggest anomalies are further west as well. Will be interesting to see what all makes it the surface. 

[raindancewx]

I know Joe Bastardi likes 2002 as an analog, but I just can't get behind that year, it is so much warmer in the Eastern third of the US than in 2002 for the first third of October. It did OK for September in the East, but it was kind of backwards for the West. So far, October looks like a blend of 1939, 1941, 1951 to me with some 1963 in the Ohio Valley. 2002 will be way off for the East...right now its maybe 20F off for highs by IN/KY/MO?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

JMHO...but people focus too much on the instability of region 1.2. Making basin wide proclamations because its spiked in the last week to ten days. That is what that region does....its unstable. We see it every year.

It jumped to +.07....no big deal imo...its been ice cold all fall. It was 1.1C to begin October 2014. It was +.06C the week of Nov 11, 2009,  +.05C Oct 20, 2004, +.09C Oct 16, 2002. 

It may not end up an extreme modoki event, sure.....but even some very good modoki years saw warm spikes in region 1.2. It doesn't necessarily mean much.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I know Joe Bastardi likes 2002 as an analog, but I just can't get behind that year, it is so much warmer in the Eastern third of the US than in 2002 for the first third of October. It did OK for September in the East, but it was kind of backwards for the West. So far, October looks like a blend of 1939, 1941, 1951 to me with some 1963 in the Ohio Valley. 2002 will be way off for the East...right now its maybe 20F off for highs by IN/KY/MO?

 

It don't really think it matters whether the autumn has evolved similarly, but agree there are issues with that analog.

[raindancewx]

Nino 1.2 is pretty volatile, but in the near term I really don't see it cooling either. The SOI is negative, the subsurface is warm under Nino 1.2. Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 are warm. The cold waters that had been surrounding the Nino zones at the surface are warm. The Southern Hemisphere is going into Summer now, slowly, so cooling from the Antarctic cold shots seems unlikely too. Where would the cold come from in Nino 1.2 in the short term? The winds on the surface could cause up-welling I guess but the waters below are warm.

One of the reasons I backed off from 2009 as an analog is it started very warm in Nino 1.2 and then the greatest unusual warmth migrated west if that makes sense. This event is the opposite. There was huge warmth that built West, and it has migrated east. Will that continue? Who knows - but for the short term I'd say yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yes, the subsurface warmth has extended further to the east, but it was so extremely lopsided towards the west before that this was  bound to happen as el nino matures. Its still just as warm to the west, and the vast majority of warmth remains west of region 1.2, which is between about 80 and 90* longitude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2006 was above 1.0C for a protracted period of time at this point...really nothing like that right now. Could we get there? I guess, but long way to go, and I bet against it.

[raindancewx]

The European definitely shifted Nino 1.2 a lot warmer on its most recent run and the big warm up it showed for this month seems to be verifying well. I generally assume the models are too sensitive, but I take their trends seriously, just at a lower magnitude. Most of the members are over +1C in Nino 1.2 now for winter I'd say. Maybe 65-35? Do I think we hit +2C in Nino 1.2? No. How about +1.5C? No. I'd say +0.5 to 1.5C is pretty likely though given how the Euro did last year.

Say it is right - what are the El Nino years with Nino 1.2 above +1C in DJF against 1951-2010? It isn't many years - 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2015. If that is too warm, but only by a bit, you throw in 1991, 1994, 2006 as next closest. That first set of five years is awesome out here - the second set is pretty good too. This is what it looks like with the Super Ninos v. without them. Doesn't even change much, because Nino 1.2 itself drives a fair bit of it.

 

October run last year did pretty well for winter in Nino 1.2, correctly had it very cold, and then when it warmed in February and the east roasted, then it rapidly cooled in March...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

With the recent big increase in nino 1+2 temps, this nino is no longer highly west-based, but rather looks more like a basin-wide event for now.

More anomalously warm water just under the surface in nino 1+2 than further west, but if you go deep enough the biggest anomalies are further west as well. Will be interesting to see what all makes it the surface. 

Its mainly under region 3, not 1.2.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you remove 91-92 being a strong el nino on the heels of Pinatubo, this is pretty reasonable.

I also have my doubts about the validity of 94-95 being a moderate event within a few years of the eruption, but fine.

I won't be surprised if its not a very cold winter in the east, but I have a hard time utilizing a composite with all moderate el nino seasons in a weak year...one being within a fews years of Pinatubo. I think it would be blockier on the back end than this composite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the vast majority are in a range of .5-1.2C in region 1.2.

It also may be worth noting that the EURO made a pretty sizable jump in the el nino across the board, so it wasn't just 1.2. 

Region 3.4 went from .6 to 1.2C monthly peak...not tri monthly.

[weathafella]

In terms of sensible wx, for my neighborhood 2002 is a near perfect match including dates of the flip from way above normal in October to this year of guidance is reasonably close.

[raindancewx]

I don't think 2002 is a bad analog for the East, just don't think it will work in the West. The timing of the transitions has worked well in 2002 for the East for months now, it was doing OK here, but it broke in September. September 2002 was very cold, and it was pretty warm here. The temperature profile in the West is opposite in Sept 2002 v. 2018. The AMO is somewhat similar to 2002 as well. My issues are with the PDO (very high in 2002) and sunspot activity (pretty high in 2002). The PDO/Solar are big impacts here in precip tendencies.

An example of this - the Canadian, GFS, Icon, and even the NAM is hinting at it, but not close enough yet - show snow here in the valleys on Monday. Albuquerque almost never (once a decade) gets snow in October that sticks - but it did happen in 2009, 2004, 1986, 1991, as well as some non-El Nino years. Interestingly, 1932, which is NOT an El Nino winter, but a good SOI match (it tried to be an El Nino in Summer) is a good SOI match, as is 1986. To me, the rare events are hints.

[griteater]

For Nino 3.4 Aug to Oct model releases:

UKMet

Aug: Moderate Nino

Sep: Weak Nino

Oct: Moderate Nino

Jamstec

Aug: Weak Nino

Sep: Moderate Nino

Oct: Strong Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

The ECMWF and UK seasonals certainly scream "modoki".

[raindancewx]

Here is a look at the new information from the Jamstec. It now has a strong east-central El Nino.

The El Nino would continue until next Summer if we take the Jamstec verbatim. The Modoki forecast is the same essentially, all just a bit warmer.

The new run is actually very similar to what I have for temps, I'm a bit less north on where the cold anomalies are, but that's almost identical to what I have. The precip anomalies went drier in the Midwest too, presumably because it sees some blocking now (Greenland is warmer?), but I don't think its all or most of winter. My best guess in 3 weeks of -NAO readings.

The October run for temps last year actually was very good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Very minute chance this el nino becomes strong, but never say never, I guess.

[BlizzardWx]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here is a look at the new information from the Jamstec. It now has a strong east-central El Nino.

The El Nino would continue until next Summer if we take the Jamstec verbatim. The Modoki forecast is the same essentially, all just a bit warmer.

The new run is actually very similar to what I have for temps, I'm a bit less north on where the cold anomalies are, but that's almost identical to what I have. The precip anomalies went drier in the Midwest too, presumably because it sees some blocking now (Greenland is warmer?), but I don't think its all or most of winter. My best guess in 3 weeks of -NAO readings.

The October run for temps last year actually was very good.

 

Nice post. Offhand do you know which years would match the east-central focus best?

[BlizzardWx]

On 10/10/2018 at 10:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its mainly under region 3, not 1.2.

Fair point, mostly I was meaning that its no longer strongly Modoki, and at least for the next few weeks the lower level westerly wind anomalies should keep it that way in spite of 1+2 volatility. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

Fair point, mostly I was meaning that its no longer strongly Modoki, and at least for the next few weeks the lower level westerly wind anomalies should keep it that way in spite of 1+2 volatility. 

Gotcha.

[raindancewx]

The Jamstec honestly looks like the blend I was going to use but centered to the east and stronger. My blend (1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006) + 1982 is kind of close? The Jamstec peak ONI would probably be around +1.6C for DJF, I don't really buy that, but I'd been assuming +0.75C with my analogs saying +0.95C. I think its probably more like +1.1 to +1.3 now.

Looking back, here is how close the Oct Jamstec runs were for peak ONI strength:

Oct 2017 for DJF 2017-18:

CPC does use 1985-2014 for ONI now, so you have to lower the Jamstec numbers a bit. 

I was going to do this big post yesterday on El Ninos that began West (Nino 4) in July-Sept and spread east by winter, but the composites for DJF temps looked the same regardless of how the Ninos developed. That said, it is much rarer for Ninos to develop from the West. 2006, 2009, 2014, 2015 all started from the east (Nino 1.2 anomalies warmer than Nino 4 in July-Sept). 2004, 2002, 1994, 1986, 1977 were from the west. Only a few others were from the west, its like a 14 v. 7 split since 1950.

I'm nearly done my winter outlook, I don't find the Jamstec or Euro ideas too inconsistent with my own, just have to watch late winter, as they have the Nino maintaining or peaking while I had it weakening.

 

[raindancewx]

One reason I picked 1982-83 for late winter is what has happened this October. Last I looked, Evansville, Indiana had highs around +15F above the 60-year mean for Oct 1-10, while Fargo, ND had highs around 15F below the 60-year normal for Oct 1-10. 1982 is actually fairly close in both places.

[griteater]

October release of the JMA has a trough in the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. sans the deep south. Aleutian Low is weak and west. Max -VP anomalies (CHI) are west of the dateline in the tropical Pacific. SSTs increased only slightly and show a weak El Nino.

[raindancewx]

I am done with my outlook. It is 41 slides, but only 2500 words. Lots of pictures and graphics.

https://www.scribd.com/document/390797995/Winter-2018-19-Outlook

Will be fun to see what it gets right and what it gets wrong. Focus is obviously for NM. Thanks for putting up with my antics here!

I would advise people putting out their forecasts to include the base period they are using. A year that is +1F in DJF for 1981-2010 may not be for another time frame, etc.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I am done with my outlook. It is 41 slides, but only 2500 words. Lots of pictures and graphics.

https://www.scribd.com/document/390797995/Winter-2018-19-Outlook

Will be fun to see what it gets right and what it gets wrong. Focus is obviously for NM. Thanks for putting up with my antics here!

I would advise people putting out their forecasts to include the base period they are using. A year that is +1F in DJF for 1981-2010 may not be for another time frame, etc.

 

 

Nice write up.

Not sure I would incorporate the super el nino of 1983 into the analog set, but.....we'll see.

Question, you seem to weigh the EURO heavily into your ENSO prognostication, however you have ostensibly disregarded its DM output across the US.

Any particular reason?

Thanks.

[raindancewx]

I'm not sure I should incorporate 1983 either, that is why I didn't use it on the SST map or temp map, but Feb 1983 looked like my blend for February anyway (for temps) so I figured we may go to 1983 for a bit late in the winter because the models don't show the El Nino decaying in February like my analogs do, and that means...something. Probably.

My years, 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006, plus 1982 is a good match to what the Jamstec shows for SSTs, but still matches my local conditions of recent months. I mentioned this above, but the +15F in Indiana v. -15F in North Dakota for early October is damn hard to find in an El Nino year, but its a decent match to 1982.

I'm not sure I know what DM is, but I don't think the 500 mb patterns are particularly indicative this year of temperatures. I think we'll have the 500 mb low-solar look at times, some blocking, an active southern jet, etc, but sea ice and cold in the arctic has trended toward 2007/2012 levels. For you guys in the East, I think the basic idea is a colder 1994 or a warmer 2002. I don't have a problem with Bastardi saying 2002 is very similar to Sept/Oct. It is. It's just more extreme in some ways don't you think?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

DM is December through March.

I mean...yea, good bet this winter falls somewhere in between 2006 and 2002, which isn't saying much because they fell at opposite ends of the winter spectrum on the east coast. I think it will be more like 2002, and not at all like 1994..save for maybe a bit of similarity to Feb 1995 on the east coast, but more polar assist. I am also quite certain that should the (December through March) H5 composite on the EURO seasonal verify, the NE US will be neither warm, nor dry. But no one is going to agree on everything...you obviously put a good deal of effort in, and it was a splendid presentation.

Good luck.

[raindancewx]

The Euro from what I've seen has a of skill at forecasting temperatures for the immediate month ahead, but not so much for the more distant months (understandable, more can go wrong), even though it is still probably better than the other models. The Canadian is sort of the same way.

Look at the Euro October forecast from 9/1 v. 10/1 - the magnitudes and spatial patterns are much close to what has been observed to date.