Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The other issue is the last minimum peaked around Feb 2009, which would mean the coming minimum is probably around early 2020, as opposed to this winter. If you're looking for an El Nino year one ahead of the absolute min, 1963-64 is probably closest.

I treat solar conditions the way I treat ENSO, the prior year matters, and you look for whether the annualized sunspot mean is high or low relative to the established relevant threshold. For here, that is 55/per year. Long-term (250+ year) July-June annual mean is around 85.

Anyway - SOI is pretty negative for October so far. 

On average......but they can have occurred in as close of a succession as 9 years apart.

Here are some forecasts:

 

[raindancewx]

To me, as of 9/2018, we're still a bit away form the solar min itself - there is a sharp curve usually in the monthly data by the bottom of the cycle. That may just be starting now. May & June of this year still had 10-20 sunspots, so my hunch is that next year is the real min, but it definitely could be a bit sooner.

[uncle W]

look at some of the great winters when the spot cycle is near the low point...some epic winters in there...

1933-34...very cold and snowy in the east...big snows in the east...

1944-45...very cold...

1955-56...very cold start and ending...big March snows in the east...

1963-64...great winter in the east...east coast blizzard...

1977-78...epic winter in the east...east coast blizzard...

1986-87...big snows in DC...

1995-96...big snows everywhere

2009-10...big snows galore in the east...

only 1944-45 did not have a major storm in the northeast...

1957-58 came during a peak Sun spot period...57-58 belongs with the years mentioned above...some really snowless east coast winters during the high peaks...

 

[raindancewx]

CPC updated the ONI value today - JAS was +0.1. The actual figure did rise slightly to +0.14C for JAS, from +0.11 in JJA.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

September 2018 was +0.22C (against 1985-2014). The actual SSTs for Sept are very similar to 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, and 2014. 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Nino 1.2 is now much warmer than last year - 

 1.2 SST   Jan         Feb      Mar       Apr       May       Jun       July      Aug       Sept       Oct      Nov        Dec

 2017  25.50  27.46  28.10  26.59  24.63  22.89  21.64  20.67  19.92  20.21  20.46  21.39
 2018  23.43  25.12  25.12  24.50  23.66  22.40  21.55  20.73  20.65 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

If October comes in around 21.0C for Nino 1.2, with the much lower PDO base state in Mar-Aug, the PDO will probably be near neutral again for Nov-Apr. But I want to see the next weeklies for Nino 1.2 before I guess at Nino 1.2 SSTs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Aren't all regions warmer relative to last season.....la nina vs developing el nino.

[raindancewx]

Here are the closest matches for September SST temps in Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 since 1950. My analog system thought 1994 would emerge as the top SST match in the Nino zones in fall - it is why I keep mentioning 1994.

I think all of these years are cold in my area except...1994. The blend of those years looks like my winter forecast too for national temps. 2012 and 1991 should fall off pretty rapidly from here out. Same with 1993. The others will probably stay, with 2006, 2014, 1953 re-entering.

 

[raindancewx]

On 10/2/2018 at 12:09 PM, The_Global_Warmer said:

That's pretty amazing. 

Do you have the link for these maps? I'd like to look at the old El Nino years on the Wayback Machine and do a comparison.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Here are the closest matches for September SST temps in Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 since 1950. My analog system thought 1994 would emerge as the top SST match in the Nino zones in fall - it is why I keep mentioning 1994.

I think all of these years are cold in my area except...1994. The blend of those years looks like my winter forecast too for national temps. 2012 and 1991 should fall off pretty rapidly from here out. Same with 1993. The others will probably stay, with 2006, 2014, 1953 re-entering.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Here are the closest matches for September SST temps in Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 since 1950. My analog system thought 1994 would emerge as the top SST match in the Nino zones in fall - it is why I keep mentioning 1994.

I think all of these years are cold in my area except...1994. The blend of those years looks like my winter forecast too for national temps. 2012 and 1991 should fall off pretty rapidly from here out. Same with 1993. The others will probably stay, with 2006, 2014, 1953 re-entering.

 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

[raindancewx]

You have my coldest February (1964) on record and my second wettest winter in like 100 years if those are your analogs. I'd enjoy it! but I think it will be tamer than that here. Pretty sure it snowed in seven months here from Oct-Apr 1986-1987. So that'd be fun. I'll have my outlook up next week and link it here if anyone wants to read it. It seems to me that the structure of the El Nino will change a lot mid-winter and a lot of the severe anomalies will cancel out, but that is just my idea, who the hell knows if it will happen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, raindancewx said:

You have my coldest February (1964) on record and my second wettest winter in like 100 years if those are your analogs. I'd enjoy it! but I think it will be tamer than that here. Pretty sure it snowed in seven months here from Oct-Apr 1986-1987. So that'd be fun. I'll have my outlook up next week and link it here if anyone wants to read it. It seems to me that the structure of the El Nino will change a lot mid-winter and a lot of the severe anomalies will cancel out, but that is just my idea, who the hell knows if it will happen.

Not my composite....I was just doing that to illustrate the el nino years that you featured in your chart.

[The_Global_Warmer]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Do you have the link for these maps? I'd like to look at the old El Nino years on the Wayback Machine and do a comparison.

 

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

[raindancewx]

Still looking pretty warm in the subsurface.

If you look at the four Nino zones, Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4, for Jan-Sept, each monthly, and sum up the total difference by absolute value, 1986 is the closest temperature match to 2018, 1963, and 2006 follow. Then 1968, 1994.

Since 1950, every year that had 27.0C SSTs in Oct and Sept become an El Nino. 2012 is the closest to a miss (26.98C in 3.4 in Oct), but the subsurface was cooling, and Nino 3 was already around average again by the end of October.

[griteater]

Last month, the Euro trended the El Nino a little weaker....for Oct, it trended it a little stronger

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Last month, the Euro trended the El Nino a little weaker....for Oct, it trended it a little stronger

Big jump...from like .6 to 1.1C

[frd]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big jump...from like .6 to 1.1C

Looking at that Euro forecast graph it would appear it takes off rather quickly from here, most of the forecasted rise is closer to the present versus later. Does that mean the forecast is more accurate, not sure. 

Ray,  is that forecast bordering on moderate now ? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Looking at that Euro forecast graph it would appear it takes off rather quickly from here, most of the forecasted rise is closer to the present versus later. Does that mean the forecast is more accurate, not sure. 

Ray,  is that forecast bordering on moderate now ? 

Yea...marginal. I buy it...look at the subsurface. Ventrice has been all over the ongong atmospheric reorientation, while others were spouting off about 2012. This el nino was never in jeopardy.

I estimated .8 or .9 as a peak is one of my blogs this fall, and still feel good about that.

[frd]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...marginal. I buy it...look at the subsurface. Ventrice has been all over the ongong atmospheric reorientation, while others were spouting off about 2012. This el nino was never in jeopardy.

I estimated .8 or .9 as a peak is one of my blogs this fall, and still feel good about that.

You stil feel that the stronger the El Nino , granted it is West based / Modaki , the more it could benefit my region , the Mid Atlantic ?

Also, have you done any research about the type of El Nino and the correlation the the NAO domain?   

Through the years so  many NAO formulas by others have not worked out. 

However, I remember you mentioing Tom ( Isotherm) has fairly good skill in this area, looking forward to his thoughts as well as your Winter forecast later on. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

You stil feel that the stronger the El Nino , granted it is West based / Modaki , the more it could benefit my region , the Mid Atlantic ?

Also, have you done any research about the type of El Nino and the correlation the the NAO domain?   

Through the years so  many NAO formulas by others have not worked out. 

However, I remember you mentioing Tom ( Isotherm) has fairly good skill in this area, looking forward to his thoughts as well as your Winter forecast later on. 

Yes, your area absolutely wants moderate....though weak isn't bad.

Generally speaking, weaker el nino correlates to negative NAO...but obviously there are plenty of exceptions. 

[raindancewx]

Does anyone have ECMWF 10/1 plume for Nino 1.2? That is the most useful part of their forecast to me, but it isn't coming up yet, and I saw Griteater put up Nino 3.4 earlier.

[CoastalWx]

Models may be biasing the forecast on a WWB. From a sniff test point of view, that looks a little too steep from the get go. It doesn't mean Nino may not top out a little higher, but when you have been flat lining and now the guidance just rockets up immediately, it's a bit suspect. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Models may be biasing the forecast on a WWB. From a sniff test point of view, that looks a little too steep from the get go. It doesn't mean Nino may not top out a little higher, but when you have been flat lining and now the guidance just rockets up immediately, it's a bit suspect. 

Yeah.  This is pretty  freaking  strong and vast.  Stretching over a huge area. 

Its not only a slow down but a complete reversal over a large region. 

 

We can see going back into the summer nothing remotely close to that.  

 

The limiting factor is the sub surface is only moderately warm. 

 

Otherwise even one of these kind of wind  reversal events would kick off a huge burst of surface warming. 

[raindancewx]

I still like Nino 3.4 around +0.7C for DJF. Starting to wonder if the peak is later though, maybe JFM, FMA, or maybe we really do go into a multi-year El Nino. 

This data set, which looks at all the old SST observations and uses a regression on all the old readings to tease out errors, has an El Nino for winters 1884-85, 1885-86 and then again 1887-88 and 1888-89. That would be more extreme than the possible coming set up, which had 2016-17 and 2017-18 in between El Ninos. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

A lot of the older "two-in a row" El Nino winters start in SON on that list: 2014, 1929, 1913. Worth noting that 1930-31 & 2015-16 national high temperature anomalies are pretty similar in winter too. NOAA/CPC has Sept at +0.22C against the current 30-year mean (1985-2014), so ASO isn't likely to be the first El Nino ONI period. With +0.04, then +0.22 so far for August and September, you'd wager maybe +0.3C for ASO with October at +0.7C maybe. The 1913-14 and 1914-15 double El Nino was also right around a very deep solar minimum, you had months with under 10 sunspots every so often from 1910-1914. 1986-87 was near the minimum too and lead into 1987-88 too, but was a less pronounced minimum with an earlier to start El Nino.

Year       Month       Date        Sunspots

1913	7	1913.538	2.9
1913	8	1913.623	0.4
1913	9	1913.707	2
1913	10	1913.79	5.2
1913	11	1913.874	1.2
1913	12	1913.958	6.3
1914	1	1914.042	4.7
1914	2	1914.123	4.4
1914	3	1914.204	5.3
1914	4	1914.288	28.9
1914	5	1914.371	8.7
1914	6	1914.455	19.1
1914	7	1914.538	9.1
1914	8	1914.623	12.9
1914	9	1914.707	21.2
1914	10	1914.79	13.7
1914	11	1914.874	27.3
1914	12	1914.958	37.3
1915	1	1915.042	38.5
1915	2	1915.123	70.4
1915	3	1915.204	64.8
1915	4	1915.288	68.9
1915	5	1915.371	55.1
1915	6	1915.455	114.7

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Models may be biasing the forecast on a WWB. From a sniff test point of view, that looks a little too steep from the get go. It doesn't mean Nino may not top out a little higher, but when you have been flat lining and now the guidance just rockets up immediately, it's a bit suspect. 

Agree.

[raindancewx]

I still want to see the first set of weekly data for October, but my best method guessing says Nino 1.2 will be 21.39C for October. Given the PDO (JISAO/Mantua) was +0.07 for Mar-Aug, the historical blend produces a PDO value of +0.69 for Nov-Apr, up from last year, but way down v. 2016-17, 2015-16, 2014-15, 2002-03, and various other years.

Year	Oct 1.2	PDO M-A	PDO N-A
1965	21.34	-0.18	-0.44
1976	21.52	-0.22	1.04
2002	21.39	-0.24	1.69
2004	21.16	0.57	0.47
Mean	21.35	-0.02	0.69
2018	21.39	0.07

My estimate for Nino 1.2 in October comes from matching July-Sept in Nino 1.2, and then seeing what those years produce in October -

Nino 1.2	July	Aug	Sept
2002	21.72	20.74	20.93
1963	21.61	21.16	20.78
1994	21.09	19.98	20.58
Mean	21.47	20.63	20.76
2018	21.53	20.69	20.65

 

[griteater]

Here's a new version of the ENSO Base Chart (SST) with all El Ninos since 1950 included, and with the new September value in for this year...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow...that is pretty strongly west-based.

[raindancewx]

Oct 1-7 mean high here is an exact match to 2006 - 79.6F. 

SOI for 10/1-10/7 is -6.5. This may change (we'll see what the weeklies show tomorrow), but I like +0.7C for October 2018 in Nino 3.4, something like 27.45C.

Looking forward to the weeklies.

Currently 48F here and raining at 8:40 pm, feels amazing.

 

[raindancewx]

Pretty impressive warm up lately. 2003 is still pretty similar, because it peaked at +0.7C in Oct around
this time on the weeklies. All the years are El Ninos. The rapid warm up from early Sept to early Oct in Nino 3.4
(+0.4C or more gain) shows up in 1994. If Nino 1.2 stays this warm, then we have a hybrid or a basin wide event. 
SOI remains between -6 and -7 for October to date, and the surface/subsurface still look warm. 
For this week a blend of 1994 & 1996 looks good.
  
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8

 04SEP1991     20.9 0.4     25.1 0.2     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.5
 11SEP1991     20.7 0.3     24.7-0.1     26.9 0.1     29.0 0.4
 18SEP1991     20.7 0.3     25.1 0.2     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
 25SEP1991     20.8 0.3     25.2 0.3     27.1 0.4     29.2 0.5
 02OCT1991     20.8 0.2     25.3 0.4     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.6

 07SEP1994     20.1-0.4     24.6-0.3     26.9 0.2     29.3 0.6
 14SEP1994     20.0-0.3     24.6-0.2     26.9 0.1     29.2 0.5
 21SEP1994     20.5 0.1     24.9 0.0     27.0 0.2     29.2 0.5
 28SEP1994     20.2-0.3     25.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.2 0.6
 05OCT1994     21.0 0.3     25.4 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.4 0.8

 08SEP2004     19.8-0.6     25.0 0.1     27.4 0.6     29.6 0.9
 15SEP2004     19.8-0.5     25.1 0.3     27.5 0.7     29.6 0.9
 22SEP2004     20.4-0.1     25.3 0.4     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 29SEP2004     20.5-0.1     25.4 0.5     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.8
 06OCT2004     20.8 0.1     25.2 0.4     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8

 13SEP2006     21.3 0.9     25.8 0.9     27.3 0.6     29.4 0.7
 20SEP2006     21.2 0.8     25.9 1.1     27.4 0.7     29.4 0.8
 27SEP2006     21.7 1.1     25.7 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7
 04OCT2006     21.7 1.0     25.7 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.2 0.6

 09SEP2009     21.1 0.6     25.7 0.8     27.5 0.8     29.3 0.6
 16SEP2009     20.8 0.4     25.6 0.8     27.5 0.8     29.3 0.6
 23SEP2009     20.5 0.0     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.2 0.6
 30SEP2009     20.4-0.2     25.4 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.2 0.6
 07OCT2009     20.1-0.5     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.4 0.7

 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 17SEP2014     21.0 0.7     25.2 0.4     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.8
 24SEP2014     21.2 0.8     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.4     29.3 0.6
 01OCT2014     21.7 1.1     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.2 0.5