Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4

The weeklies are ahead of 1991/1994 now, behind 2014 still.

 11SEP1991     20.7 0.3     24.7-0.1     26.9 0.1     29.0 0.4
 14SEP1994     20.0-0.3     24.6-0.2     26.9 0.1     29.2 0.5
 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7

The European showed a warm rebound in September after a brief cool-off in August. That looks correct. The subsurface is still warm. I still like an El Nino. Start looks like October.  Might be one final dip in Nino 3.4, but the drop off Tropical Tidbits showed in Nino 3.4 may or may not show up in the weeklies.

Last year, for comparison -

13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0

[raindancewx]

For 9/1-9/22, the SOI is at -7.2. 

Still looks warm to me. Weeklies on Monday should be +0.2 to +0.4 in 3.4?

 

[raindancewx]

SOI is down to -8.5 or so for September. Here are the weeklies -

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4

 Recent El Ninos / near Ninos for reference. This is also when the El Ninos that tried to form in Fall 2003/2012 peaked and fell apart - so keep an eye on that. 

 24SEP2014     21.2 0.8     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.4     29.3 0.6
 27SEP2006     21.7 1.1     25.7 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7
 22SEP2004     20.4-0.1     25.3 0.4     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24SEP2003     20.5 0.0     25.0 0.2     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.5
 21SEP1994     20.5 0.1     24.9 0.0     27.0 0.2     29.2 0.5
 18SEP1991     20.7 0.3     25.1 0.2     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7

1994 really started to warm rapidly from this point on in the Fall. We'll have to see if that happens. Some of the models show that. A blend of 2003 and 1994 is pretty good for this week.

Subsurface remains pretty warm. As far as September looks nationally for heat, a blend of 1953, 2002, 2014, 2015 is somewhat similar.

 

[raindancewx]

I want to point something out. In actual SSTs for Nino 3.4, each month for Jan-Aug, 2018 is closest to 2006 and 2012. In 2012, we had similar warmth in Nino 3.4 to now, but the subsurface began to rapidly decay, ahead of the fall to a cold Neutral winter. I really don't see that happening, at least as of late September, in the subsurface -

 

[WhiteoutWX]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I want to point something out. In actual SSTs for Nino 3.4, each month for Jan-Aug, 2018 is closest to 2006 and 2012. In 2012, we had similar warmth in Nino 3.4 to now, but the subsurface began to rapidly decay, ahead of the fall to a cold Neutral winter. I really don't see that happening, at least as of late September, in the subsurface -

 

 

 

Yeah from a subsurface standpoint this is looking nothing like 2012. Subsurface warmth is increasing still. Looks more like 2006 to me.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Things will only escalate from here. 

Global temps will be near or even record warm again.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Yeah from a subsurface standpoint this is looking nothing like 2012. Subsurface warmth is increasing still. Looks more like 2006 to me.

Looks a bit more decidedly modoki than 2006, too.

[frd]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks a bit more decidedly modoki than 2006, too.

Ray, does the large area of subsurface warmth increase the possibility this could go to a moderate level , or is that simply wishcasting?

 

 

[raindancewx]

Keep your eyes on the remnants of Rosa next week in the SW. Big rains this time of year, especially in the morning really hold temperatures down, and we're often the source region of heat for much of the US. 

[raindancewx]

SOI is at -8.2 for Sept 1-27. Should finish in the -5 to -11 range. Nino 3.4, 3, 1.2 looking pretty good on Tropical Tidbits now. May get to +0.8C for DJF after all, we'll see.

27 Sep 2018	1013.58	1012.05	-4.69	-6.85	-4.07
26 Sep 2018	1013.49	1011.35	-1.07	-6.86	-4.06
25 Sep 2018	1012.85	1012.30	-10.52	-6.88	-4.16
24 Sep 2018	1012.42	1013.25	-18.72	-6.40	-4.07
23 Sep 2018	1011.64	1013.90	-27.21	-5.37	-3.79
22 Sep 2018	1011.59	1013.55	-25.43	-4.11	-3.48
21 Sep 2018	1011.70	1011.80	-14.38	-3.13	-3.21
20 Sep 2018	1012.20	1010.85	-5.76	-2.93	-3.12
19 Sep 2018	1012.46	1011.25	-6.59	-3.43	-3.12
18 Sep 2018	1013.09	1011.90	-6.71	-3.72	-3.07
17 Sep 2018	1014.53	1011.50	4.22	-3.43	-3.01
16 Sep 2018	1015.27	1011.70	7.43	-3.30	-3.19
15 Sep 2018	1015.92	1011.90	10.10	-3.16	-3.48
14 Sep 2018	1015.71	1011.95	8.56	-3.60	-3.83
13 Sep 2018	1014.60	1011.35	5.53	-4.26	-4.04
12 Sep 2018	1014.78	1011.55	5.41	-5.11	-4.11
11 Sep 2018	1014.06	1013.75	-11.94	-5.74	-4.16
10 Sep 2018	1012.71	1014.20	-22.64	-6.06	-4.18
9 Sep 2018	1011.77	1013.05	-21.39	-6.34	-4.29
8 Sep 2018	1009.69	1012.55	-30.78	-6.66	-4.33
7 Sep 2018	1008.74	1011.85	-32.27	-6.19	-4.02
6 Sep 2018	1009.99	1012.05	-26.03	-5.13	-3.63
5 Sep 2018	1012.45	1012.20	-12.30	-4.63	-3.44
4 Sep 2018	1014.10	1012.30	-3.09	-5.03	-3.40
3 Sep 2018	1015.35	1012.25	4.64	-5.37	-3.33
2 Sep 2018	1015.95	1012.90	4.34	-5.70	-3.37
1 Sep 2018	1017.14	1013.00	10.82	-6.03	-3.51

[40/70 Benchmark]

On September 26, 2018 at 2:53 PM, frd said:

Ray, does the large area of subsurface warmth increase the possibility this could go to a moderate level , or is that simply wishcasting?

 

 

 Certainly doesn't hurt, but I'm thinking it merely ensures that we verify an el nino.

[griteater]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Certainly doesn't hurt, but I'm thinking it merely ensures that we an el nino.

Agree, I have been a little skeptical about ENSO reaching official weak El Nino status, but the current subsurface profile combined with westerlies pushing out from the West Pacific into the Central and Eastern Pacific are driving warming profiles.  The models showed this spike all along for Sept into Oct, so there's that as well.  Despite the recent warming, there will be ebbs and flows with the SSTs going forward.

 

Here are a couple of charts I put together on the El Nino Base...

El Nino base chart using Central minus East Pacific Index for Weak El Ninos Post 1978...

 

El Nino base chart using Central minus East Pacific Index for Weak El Ninos from 1950 to 1978...

 

East vs. Central Pacific El Nino Pattern...

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GL047364

http://www.met.igp.gob.pe/datos/EC.txt

[griteater]

Alternate El Nino Base charts using the Modoki Index...

 

For Weak El Ninos Post 1978...

 

For Weak El Ninos from 1950-1978

 

Conventional vs. Modoki El Nino Pattern...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I have this season as slightly-moderately west-based, as well.

Agree.

[raindancewx]

8 hours ago, griteater said:

Alternate El Nino Base charts using the Modoki Index...

 

For Weak El Ninos Post 1978...

 

For Weak El Ninos from 1950-1978

 

Conventional vs. Modoki El Nino Pattern...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

These are good posts. Worth noting that 1994 and 1976 looks like MJO matches for October too, i.e. MJO starting in 8/1.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree. Awesome posts.

Thank you.

[raindancewx]

The SOI finished September at -8.49. Good sign. Here are closest SOI figures by absolute value, since 1931, for July, Aug, Sept -

Year	July	Aug	Sept	ABS
2018	1.8	-6.7	-8.5	0.0
1957	1.4	-8.2	-9.4	2.8
1986	2.0	-7.0	-4.7	4.3
1948	0.8	-4.0	-7.1	5.1
1990	5.2	-4.4	-7.3	6.9
1963	-2.2	-2.8	-5.9	10.5
1991	-1.5	-6.8	-16.2	11.1
2014	-4.0	-10.1	-6.6	11.1
2005	1.6	-6.5	3.4	12.3
1969	-6.4	-4.0	-10.0	12.4
1939	7.5	-0.3	-8.8	12.4

The Canadian Model will be out later today. Some of these years are actually fairly warm in the East in October, so the blend of the 10-closest years is warm in the East. The blend of the years that became El Ninos (all but 2005, 1948, 1990) is quite warm in the East. I am starting to wonder if this will be a multi-year El Nino.

[WeatherGeek_]

I doubt this el Nino sticks around next year. If it does, I will be impressed and unimpressed at the same time, lol.

[raindancewx]

Given the warmth of the US in Sept, and relatively cold Nino 1.2 compared to recent El Ninos, I'm increasingly looking at 1953 as an analog for winter. I changed the scale below to be less impressed with older cold ocean temps. If you assume 0.1C warmer everything, July-Sept looks similar to me for the northern hemisphere.

[raindancewx]

Latest Canadian Model has trended the El Nino stronger, as the JAMSTEC did, relative to last month. Also, the Canadian shows an El Nino for the next year. So...that's interesting?

SE is still shown as wet, although the wettest area is now by FL to NC/SC instead of the Ozarks. I like the look of the temperature map spatially, I think that is the right idea at the wrong magnitude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The SOI finished September at -8.49. Good sign. Here are closest SOI figures by absolute value, since 1931, for July, Aug, Sept -

Year	July	Aug	Sept	ABS
2018	1.8	-6.7	-8.5	0.0
1957	1.4	-8.2	-9.4	2.8
1986	2.0	-7.0	-4.7	4.3
1948	0.8	-4.0	-7.1	5.1
1990	5.2	-4.4	-7.3	6.9
1963	-2.2	-2.8	-5.9	10.5
1991	-1.5	-6.8	-16.2	11.1
2014	-4.0	-10.1	-6.6	11.1
2005	1.6	-6.5	3.4	12.3
1969	-6.4	-4.0	-10.0	12.4
1939	7.5	-0.3	-8.8	12.4

The Canadian Model will be out later today. Some of these years are actually fairly warm in the East in October, so the blend of the 10-closest years is warm in the East. The blend of the years that became El Ninos (all but 2005, 1948, 1990) is quite warm in the East. I am starting to wonder if this will be a multi-year El Nino.

The only multi year el nino events that took place near a solar minimum are '77-'78 and '87-'88.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree RE 1953-'54...pretty good analog. That is one of three weak el nino events that coincided with a solar minimum....the other two being '76-'77 and '77-'78, of course.

[raindancewx]

Personally, I don't think the actual timing of the minimum matters that much. I generally use ENSO & sunspot data on an annualized July-June basis. At least where I am, the threshold for low sunspot activity influencing things seems to be 55 sunspots (i.e. 12-month July-June mean <=55). So if you use those, these are the low-solar El Nino events since 1931: 1953, 1963, 1965, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2009. It gets complicated because Agung (VEI 5) went off in March 1963, and the Pinatubo effect was diminishing in 1994.

These events tend to follow cold-ENSO events. I generally consider 1997 to be low-solar, but it is on the bubble. So are 2004 and 2015. 

The three solar effects here that are statistically significant (p<=0.05) are:

- High snowfall in March - since 1931, Albuquerque has had 1 heavy March snowfall in 33 low-solar years, but 15 in 53 high-solar years (3% v. 30% (!). There is a very strong linear correlation in El Nino years between sunspot activity & March snow here. Most recently, we had 9.6" Feb 26-28 2015, which is essentially the March high solar El Nino setup but hours too early. I had snow on the ground Feb 26-Mar 2, at a time when average highs are near 60F - my house had 1" on 2/26, 4" on 2/27, ~10" on 2/28, 6" on 3/1, and 2" on 3/2. You need like a 1050 mb cold high over WY and a flow pattern from Baja over topping the cold air to do it here that late. 

- Cold winters are 4x more likely in low-solar years. La Nina winters are also more volatile (hot or cold) in low-solar years.

- Accumulating Snow after April 7th is far more likely (30% in low solar years, <10% all others)

- The month that has the most Monsoon rain (July or Aug typically) is strongly influenced by solar activity.

Arid places seem to want to maintain a constant rate of precipitation coming in v. evaporation, so when we have a dry winter or warm/wet winter, it is almost like March exists as a buffer to prevent the mountains from going snow-less too early.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Why wouldn't the minimum matter?

[Stebo]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why wouldn't the minimum matter?

I would agree with you, especially in a weak ENSO, the minimum's effects will be more noted.

[raindancewx]

I think it matters, but my point was "minimum" is kind of a cop out because the SSN/radiation level of each minimum is different, which to me implies the actual change or level of radiation at the bottom of the cycle is what matters. Believe me, I look at the solar effects for everything.

Weeklies finally have actual, honest to goodness El Nino conditions:

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6

 25SEP1991     20.8 0.3     25.2 0.3     27.1 0.4     29.2 0.5
 28SEP1994     20.2-0.3     25.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.2 0.6
 24SEP2003     20.5 0.0     25.0 0.2     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.5
 29SEP2004     20.5-0.1     25.4 0.5     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.8
 27SEP2006     21.7 1.1     25.7 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7
 30SEP2009     20.4-0.2     25.4 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.2 0.6
 24SEP2014     21.2 0.8     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.4     29.3 0.6

Nino 3.4 warmer than 1991, 1994, 2006, 2014 on the weeklies. Nino 1.2 similar to to 2009/1994/2004. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its not a cop out...it's a minimum relative to that particular cycle. Its like saying a low temp is a cop out because it was lower last week.

[raindancewx]

The other issue is the last minimum peaked around Feb 2009, which would mean the coming minimum is probably around early 2020, as opposed to this winter. If you're looking for an El Nino year one ahead of the absolute min, 1963-64 is probably closest.

I treat solar conditions the way I treat ENSO, the prior year matters, and you look for whether the annualized sunspot mean is high or low relative to the established relevant threshold. For here, that is 55/per year. Long-term (250+ year) July-June annual mean is around 85.

Anyway - SOI is pretty negative for October so far. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

That's pretty amazing. 

[raindancewx]

The European idea from 9/1 for Sept 2018 verified on the low side. After similarities earlier in the year, Nino 3.4 is night/day different from last year now. The data set the ECMWF uses is different than the ONI/CPC data, so the CPC data will be different. CPC had +0.04C for Aug for instance, while the OIv2 had +0.3. So we'll see.