Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is a good indicator in April/May

85% chance this crosses Weak El Nino threshold in the weeklies by the Summer

[raindancewx]

I'll go on record and say that I think it will be a Modoki El Nino. Nino 1.2 is still pretty cold. I was looking at years that went from a "La Nina look" by cold water location/structure, like last winter to an El Nino Modoki, its an interesting list of years. Last year, you had an earlier transition from La Nina to near-El Nino, and it was a Modoki La Nina initially. So you get different analogs.

The Eastern Atlantic & solar conditions need to be factored in for the coming patterns, both are contributing less energy to the system than in a while. Without looking at the maps, I think 1926, 1951, 1963, 1968, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2006, 2009, 2014 all have some similarities. The El Ninos following an El Nino are probably the worst matches conceptually: 1940, 1941, 1958, 1977, 1987, 2015. Big El Ninos probably not a good match either: 1930, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2015.

Tentatively like 1951 (x2), 1963, 1968 (x2), 1976 (x2), 1986 (x2), 1997, 2006 (x2), 2009 (x2), 2014.

On the JAMSTEC classification, 1968-69 and 2009-10 are the most extreme El Nino Modoki events, so have to see if that happens.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I think it will be a basin wide El Nino. Right now it looks like Weak El Nino, but odds of Moderate aren't far behind. Very low chance for strong, ~5%

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I always always make the point that the subsurface is a better indicator than the surface. This is yet another example of it. The Northern Hemisphere is transitioning to El Nino now, with the subsurface Ninoish and the surface not.  

 

Subsurface is +3 in El Nino-warm area, and Nino 3.4 is still negative

[raindancewx]

I tried to convince you in February, that SOI drop to -7.7 should never happen in a healthy La Nina. It wasn't necessarily an indicator of an El Nino yet, but you did have a similar massive drop in March 1997 when the system began transitioning away from the near-Nina conditions to the big El Nino. I have certain organic indicators for ENSO, since the SW is most sensitive to it, and they were all indicating fairly rapid collapse in Feb/Mar. 

I do wonder when the next East-based El Nino will come - its been ages now.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I remember someone said the Kelvin wave during La Nina as strong as preceded rises to at least +Neutral even though the net effect was a cooler, more La Nina-like subsurface. And a monster -PNA for a few weeks. I thought this was interesting because it verified, the subsurface warming in the east is movement from that Kelvin Wave. It happened before the La Nina peaked is my point. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Models bring back -PNA in Pacific now. You don't see this in new developing El Nino's

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Neutral

[raindancewx]

My view has always been that surface conditions (weather) lags by about 6-weeks from the ocean changes. So I'd say we transition to Neutral through June, and then we either stay Neutral or transition to El Nino. The Nina is dead on the weeklies now. I just started a new job, so I can't post the weeklies early in the morning like I was before, if someone else wants to do it.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA  
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1

Nino 1.2 is pretty impressive for April so far, if it beats 2013, coldest since the mid-1990s. Favors a cold Washington state, and also dryness in Arizona for May pretty strongly.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Central centering of subsurface warm pool. This is healthy and should make it to the eastern longitude by late May, probably associated with North Pacific trough and +PNA pattern last week of May. 

Next 2 weeks, weak -PNA probably.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The subsurface is hitting a wall just as the surface is evening out, too mathematical.. but models have a pretty +AAM pattern setting up which is sign of El Nino

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I think that when this occurs (Pacific trough), there could be pretty serious short term surface warming, up to +0.3 or so

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

April 22- May 10 looks very +NAO. Since 2005, 4 years have been -NAO in this time, 2 were La Nina Summer's, 2 were Neutral... 2 years were +NAO, 1 was El Nino, 1 was Neutral. 2-2-0 / 0-1-1 . This is another argument toward El Nino

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

We'll get close to a weak El Nino in a week or two. 

For the first time, warm anomalies outweigh cold in ENSO. 

[raindancewx]

Last year (warm-Neutral + low solar) was amazing around here -

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Have been visualizing this today with regards to the winter

[Cobalt]

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Last year (warm-Neutral + low solar) was amazing around here -

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4

What ENSO phases are the best for you guys. I remember 2012 (weak Nina) was decent for skiing, but 2015 (Weak Nino) was a torch. Of course this was at elevated areas.

[Cobalt]

4 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Have been visualizing this today with regards to the winter

I'd hope so. Would be a miracle to get 2 separate Ninos (2009-10 being the first) to coincide with low solar in a row. 

[raindancewx]

The data I've seen implies that above a certain elevation level snow doesn't really change that much until you get into stronger ENSO conditions in the north of NM. For valleys and southern areas, even the mountains in the Center/South, La Nina is pretty dry, the precip just evaporates before hitting the ground.

Red River has weather data almost every day from 1906-2014, 8600 feet up, and the overall effect of ENSO on Jul-Jun snow was around 10 inches/year.

With ENSO, out here it works best when incorporating solar activity. March is unbelievable here with sufficiently high solar activity in El Nino years, but not so much in other El Ninos. That said, low solar+El Nino+El Nino after La Nina is the best combo for a severe winter here. The NW is similar, just replace El Nino with La Nina. Look at amazing 2016-17 or the other La Ninas are in the NW after big El Ninos. We had 22 inches of snow here from 3/22-4/8 in 1973, in an El Nino (high solar) after a La Nina. Neutral with low solar is pretty crazy down here, usually incredible cold shots for the time of year. March 29 is actually the second most common day to get a big snow event in Albuquerque based on 1931-2017, which always amuses me given the average high is 65F or something by then.  

[raindancewx]

The Canadian has a weak El Nino forming mid-summer.

[raindancewx]

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6

 

April was -0.46C against the 30-year base period.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

MAM will be +0.3 or greater higher than FMA. Since 1950, this difference has happened 21 times, 13 (61.5%) went into the opposite ENSO state, El Nino or La Nina. Per this, 60% chance we go into El Nino but since it's not still La Nina, maybe 65%. (2016 was the strongest difference)

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is pretty interesting. Nino 4 usually doesn't rise this fast, first. 

 

When Mar -> Apr is 0.4 difference or greater:

 

1997, Neutral - Strong El Nino

1987, El Nino - El Nino

1973, Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina

1972, La Nina -> Strong El Nino

1966, El Nino -> Neutral

1958, El Nino -> Neutral

 

When coming from Neutral or La Nina it goes to Strong El Nino 2/2, 2 of the 4 events since 1950, but the other regions are also rising fast by now. I wouldn't forecast Strong El Nino this year.

(None of the events listed above Nino 4 led Nino 3)

 

In 2015 Nino 4 led Nino 3 (Strong El Nino). 
Maybe it's just a sign of the times. 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Apr 29 - May 16 looks to have the most +NAO on record for that time (and all 18-day periods between April and September actually.) The only other time Apr 29 - May 16 has had +NAO since 1997 are 2009 and 2015, interestingly, the 2 strongest El Nino's since 1997. 

[raindancewx]

My Spring forecast is looking pretty good for my area, fairy normal March, then very hot/dry Apr-May. We may have multiple days in the low 90s through Wednesday here - which is pretty early (5/3/1947 is earliest 90F reading on record here).

May is a bizarre month here anyway, its very nice when its colder than normal, but basically Summer if its hotter than normal since the average May high is 80F. We had near record cold in May 2015, and May 2014-2017 were already fairly cold here.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

These only started appearing in the last few weeks. It was opposite every day Summer - March.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Where we are behind the 2 Strongest El Nino's since 1997

[raindancewx]

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Look at this substantial warming in Nino 4. There is a chance this could be a Strong Nino.