Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[raindancewx]

That is this May v. last May. The cold by the North Atlantic by Canada has some implications for sea ice, looks like it is 5-6C colder than last year? That won't just disappear overnight. June is a good indicator down here, very rare to have a cold winter if June is more than +2F above the 60-year mean high (1951-2010), so will be watching that. In the SW, July ties in well with December precipitation, and August ties in well with precipitation for the Jan 15-Apr 15 period in my experience.

The high MJO wave in June is unusual too by the way. High MJO, starting phase 3 in June last happened in 1993, and before that 1990, 1987, and that is it, all the way back to 1975 on the BOM MJO rotation site. Not a particularly extreme June nationally in the blend of those years.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The surface is warming pretty rapidly now. We'll be able to see it in about a week. 

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2

A warm PDO typically has a cold tongue shooting out east from Japan, so even with the warming, the PDO still looks neutral or even negative given the warmer waters are nearer the NW Pacific than the NE Pacific. It almost looks like the cold ring is trying to develop by the NW part of North America.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Tao/Triton maps are warming rather rapidly. +0.5 pool 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This means subsurface temps in the central region will continue cooling, which probably means the events remains Weak or goes back to Neutral in the Fall. 

[Cerakoter1984]

I'll give you this, though. That was a rather impressive 2 month run up to positive in certain Niño regions and enough to bring rainfall back to many of the areas of the US that really needed it.

[raindancewx]

Canadian trended the Atlantic colder for JJA, but has a warmer Nino 3.4 / El Nino.

[griteater]

Subsurface warmth east of the dateline is healthy right now

[griteater]

The CFS forecast has changed quite a bit since early March

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Thanks. This is the subsurface data for May. 

2018    5     0.73      0.76       0.89

 

Opp: 2016, 2010, 1998, 1995, 1992 

For: 2012, 2011, 2009, 2006, 1997, 1989

7/11 chance El Nino (CPC ONI) (but it's really about 90%)

 

 

 

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

When the subsurface warm pool reaches a peak in surface warming, it looks like a GOA Low is on models. I wonder if this will happen. (I think not)

 

[Cerakoter1984]

You don't think this will verify?

If you want the Niño to complete (strengthen), and to get PDO support later in the summer, you want this to happen, cycle through, retrograde, and happen again. Right?

[Cerakoter1984]

By late summer, that puts a ridge over the west coast, kills the ATL hurricane season and warms the PDO, correct?

[raindancewx]

My analogs had a pretty hot start to Summer in June nationally, then the heat shifts to the NW. We're looking at possibly near record rain tomorrow in NM with high cape values and upper air moisture, and that was kind of my idea for the Summer here - lots of heat early, interrupted by heavy rain, and then once the rain becomes consistent it will be kind of cool v. long-term average highs. June is supposed to be the transition. If the El Nino holds on into winter, I think the SW will be fairly cold, at least for highs, maybe 3-8F colder v. the past winter.

[Cerakoter1984]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

My analogs had a pretty hot start to Summer in June nationally, then the heat shifts to the NW. We're looking at possibly near record rain tomorrow in NM with high cape values and upper air moisture, and that was kind of my idea for the Summer here - lots of heat early, interrupted by heavy rain, and then once the rain becomes consistent it will be kind of cool v. long-term average highs. June is supposed to be the transition. If the El Nino holds on into winter, I think the SW will be fairly cold, at least for highs, maybe 3-8F colder v. the past winter.

I'm leaning pretty hard towards an Autumn 2000 type weather pattern. It would fit the short-cycling "false Niño" concept that I have pretty well also. Just depends on when it arrives. Early will be a waste and a cold autumn that warms into winter relative to average. Locations of warmest SSTs in both the ATL, PAC and IO are nearly in full agreement with me as far as analogs are concerned as well.

[Cerakoter1984]

Hard to spot the similarities because the images aren't lined up well but if you look, they are there.

[raindancewx]

Updates:

MAM ONI: -0.4C  no longer La Nina http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

May SSTA in Nino 3.4: -0.13C  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Weeklies have basically no cold water anywhere now in the Nino regions.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2

 

Very warm waters surfacing in the next few weeks in Nino 3 looks like.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

On 6/2/2018 at 10:36 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

When the subsurface warm pool reaches a peak in surface warming, it looks like a GOA Low is on models. I wonder if this will happen. (I think not)

 

Yeah, not a big deal. More -PNA duality than anything else. Surface SST trend doesn't necessarily correlate to North Pacific +PNA, although sometimes shown on models. Easy 3-5 day bias-correction I think

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2

Nino 3 and Nino 4 are both getting there, but Nino 3.4 remains somewhat colder.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Check out this strong +PNA which you usually don't see in La Nina, 52-46-2 (Nino-Neutral-Nina). Then the NAO is positive and this whole evolution is really developing-El Nino-like 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

[raindancewx]

I had a wet June in the SW this year, which is a nice break from our usual unbelievable heat, looks like that will verify with the dying East Pacific hurricanes juicing the early-to establish monsoon flow. Been seeing reports of thunderstorms firing off further north in Mexico than usual, daily, for the time of year for weeks now.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Updating my prediction to Weak El Nino peak. The cold in the subsurface near 180 degrees is concerning for stronger than +0.8 ONI trimonthly high. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think moderate el nino is the ceiling....strong was never on the radar imo....warm neutral floor.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think moderate el nino is the ceiling....strong was never on the radar imo....warm neutral floor.

Ray,

 I do think there is a good chance of a moderate El Nino. Hopefully it doesn't evolve into a strong one.

[raindancewx]

The SOI has crashed into El Nino territory for June so far, below -8 once again.

I'm not sure that the strength of ENSO events will really matters that much outside of the El/N/La categorization, so much as the orientation. 2015-16 & 1997-98 had similar ONI values, but one was heavily east based. Results were very different.

My pet theory is the most extreme winters in a region where ENSO is a driving factor occur as a result of ENSO order - El Ninos after ~La Ninas are usually pretty interesting in the SW (2014, 2009, 2006, 1997, 1986, 1976, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1963, 1957, 1945, 1939, 1929, etc) for cold/high precipitation, the same is true in the NW in La Ninas after El Ninos (2016 was an extremely severe winter in places like Montana, as was 1983, and so on). For the East, the Modoki structure matters most, since those areas are "downwind" of the areas where ENSO is more of a direct driver.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Long term GFS ensembles even have a +PNA so.. 

[griteater]

On 6/13/2018 at 8:19 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Updating my prediction to Weak El Nino peak. The cold in the subsurface near 180 degrees is concerning for stronger than +0.8 ONI trimonthly high. 

 

On 6/13/2018 at 9:15 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think moderate el nino is the ceiling....strong was never on the radar imo....warm neutral floor.

These predictions look reasonable to me.

 

Nino 3.4 has been on a steady climb since March, and has now edged into positive territory (+0.35)

 

The core of the subsurface warmth is currently east of 150W (east of the dateline)

 

The current CFS forecast shows continued westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific, as seen below from 150E to 120W.  This should promote continued gradual warming in Nino 3.4 given the state of the subsurface warmth.

 

Since the start of the year, there have been 3 downwelling Kelvin waves contributing to the eastern slosh of warm water across the Pacific.

 

The impetus for those downwelling Kelvin waves was a series of westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific from late Jan to early May (from 120E to the dateline) 

 

Without another significant westerly wind burst in the western Pacific initiating another downwelling kelvin wave and subsequent push east of additional subsurface warmth, I think a moderate El Nino would be tough to come by, but possible.  And of course, a failure to obtain enough warmth to reach official weak El Nino status is on the table as well, as forecasting the details of ENSO several months in advance can be a difficult task.

Aside from sea surface temperatures, we will have to see how the atmosphere responds in the fall in terms of the placement of convection (OLR) and velocity potential (rising/sinking motion)

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Moderate is possible. Subsurface warmth is backbuilding west now. 

[raindancewx]

I live in the SW, so we had a record cold high today (74F) locally. Record rain too for the date (0.83") - wettest day here in three years (9/22/2015). The data goes back to 1892. June 2018 is already the wettest June since 1996 here, and it is only 6/16. Wet Junes here are much more common here when the AMO is colder, the sun is very weak, and after a dry Nov-Jan period, so check, check, and check.

My replication analogs from Feb 10 in my Spring Outlook had 1.88" for June here, we're currently at 1.40".

Just about all the cold is gone in the Nino region subsurface now. If we go to an El Nino after a La Nina with low solar, I'd bet on a pretty cold winter out here. Maybe not super wet though.