April 13 Severe Threat - TX, OK, LA, ARK, KS, MO, IA

[janetjanet998]

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
711 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 745 PM CDT  
      
* AT 711 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES   
  NORTHWEST OF STERLINGTON, OR 15 MILES NORTH OF CLAIBORNE, MOVING   
  NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. A NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE TORNADO   
  REMAINS ON THE GROUND, WITH POWER FLASHES VISIBLE.

[jojo762]

Just now, andyhb said:

Reminds me a lot of what they did for the Vilonia storm back in 2014.

I thought the exact same thing. IIRC the wording in the Vilonia MD was a lot more emphatic though.

[janetjanet998]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
724 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISH IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT  
           
* AT 724 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF  
  STERLINGTON, OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF HUTTIG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

[jojo762]

These days that feature meridional (or SSW) flow always seem to end up weird with storms struggling to maintain strength or become well-organized/intense. Seemed to have ample mid-level dry air and/or CIN to keep storms mainly cellular in Kansas, and we had multiple cells that had supercell-characteristics, yet none of them could organize particularly well or acquire an even decent RFD, let alone low-level mesos. Not a perfect setup by any means across Eastern Kansas, but still one that appeared a little better than what ended up happening. Updrafts really struggled to remain established for more than a couple hours at a time despite more-than-enough instability and ample shear.

Chalk it up, as far as KS/OK/NE go, as another underwhelming plains severe setup... This has became quite an extensive list the last five/six years.

[hlcater]

Here come all the BUST posts, all the while the event is ongoing..... Pack it up! Let's go home boys. We'll get 'em next time.

[IMADreamer]

2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Here come all the BUST posts, all the while the event is ongoing.....

I always come for the bust posts in these events.  I think on the Apr 27, 2011 event.  lol

[jojo762]

5 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Here come all the BUST posts, all the while the event is ongoing..... Pack it up! Let's go home boys. We'll get 'em next time.

Im referring to only KS/OK/NE/IA. Really can't deny that activity in those states war thoroughly underwhelming. Arkansas/ the southern threat area will probably end up fairly decent when all is said and done.

[mob1]

Cell west of Clarks LA looks pretty good. I agree that it was underwhleming overall, but it definitely produced a couple of decent tornadoes (based on early reports) 

[Chicago Storm]

These days that feature meridional (or SSW) flow always seem to end up weird with storms struggling to maintain strength or become well-organized/intense. Seemed to have ample mid-level dry air and/or CIN to keep storms mainly cellular in Kansas, and we had multiple cells that had supercell-characteristics, yet none of them could organize particularly well or acquire an even decent RFD, let alone low-level mesos. Not a perfect setup by any means across Eastern Kansas, but still one that appeared a little better than what ended up happening. Updrafts really struggled to remain established for more than a couple hours at a time despite more-than-enough instability and ample shear.
Chalk it up, as far as KS/OK/NE go, as another underwhelming plains severe setup... This has became quite an extensive list the last five/six years.

This hasn’t looked like a good event across that area for days. And the 18z TOP sounding sealed the deal for it being true.

Any chasers that seriously thought today would be good (several thought that) were just kidding themselves...and letting the quiet/late start to the season get to them. Suckers


.

[mob1]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

This hasn’t looked like a good event across that area for days. And the 18z TOP sounding sealed the deal for it being true.

Any chasers that seriously thought today would be good (several thought that) were just kidding themselves...and letting the quiet/late start to the season get to them. Suckers


.

Which area specifically are you referring to? It was definitely a chasable event if topography doesn't phase you. 

[Buckeye05]

Big time TDS near Olla, LA.

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Big time TDS near Olla, LA.

huh?

[andyhb]

Tornado near Dierks, AR was a beast.

 

[janetjanet998]

C021-073-140115-  
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0062.000000T0000Z-180414T0115Z/  
CALDWELL LA-OUACHITA LA-  
742 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR WESTERN  
CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN OUACHITA PARISHES...  
          
AT 742 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF   
CLARKS, OR 8 MILES WEST OF COLUMBIA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  

[Buckeye05]

4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

huh?

Nothing “huh?” about it. Look before deciding to get snarky. 

(Not my screen cap though btw)

 

[jojo762]

3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

huh?

Its on SHV... Beam is at ~8KFt, but there was definitely a significant CC drop that corresponded with a couplet.

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Nothing “huh?” about it. Look before deciding to get snarky. 

(Not my screen cap though btw)

 

 

I can't find it, can I have a time please? 

EDIT: Nevermind! I found it. 

[jojo762]

Fairly impressive supercell and rotation near Oden, AR. Maybe it can produce before the line overtakes it.

[Buckeye05]

Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said:

I can't find it, can I have a time please? 

I attached a screencap.

[mob1]

5 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Tornado near Dierks, AR was a beast.

 

Chicago Storm missed this beauty because he stayed home. Sucker. 

[hlcater]

1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said:

I attached a screencap.

Also wasn't trying to be snarky, I legit was having a hard time finding it.

[Indystorm]

SPC maintains moderate risk into the overnight hours.

[Chicago Storm]

SPC maintains moderate risk into the overnight hours.

Why change a horrendous forecast now... Might as well go down with the ship.


.

[Chicago Storm]

Which area specifically are you referring to? It was definitely a chasable event if topography doesn't phase you. 

It was regarding the OK/MO/KS/IA threat.


.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

SPC maintains moderate risk into the overnight hours.

Yeah going to turn into a wind event now with the line, 45 wind out down there.

[Stebo]

Since some were quick to bash SPC, I'd like to know which part of this didn't verify

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	High (80%)

Because part 1 did easily, and based upon some of the damage pictures part 2 may have with either the tornado northeast of Fort Smith or the one that ran northeast out of Texarkana area. Just because we didn't have a massive tornado outbreak doesn't mean that the probabilities weren't met on almost everything in the forecast. I do expect the 15% to be validated when the rest of the reports come in.

[andyhb]

Mountainburg tornado.

[Drz1111]

2 hours ago, jojo762 said:

These days that feature meridional (or SSW) flow always seem to end up weird with storms struggling to maintain strength or become well-organized/intense. Seemed to have ample mid-level dry air and/or CIN to keep storms mainly cellular in Kansas, and we had multiple cells that had supercell-characteristics, yet none of them could organize particularly well or acquire an even decent RFD, let alone low-level mesos. Not a perfect setup by any means across Eastern Kansas, but still one that appeared a little better than what ended up happening. Updrafts really struggled to remain established for more than a couple hours at a time despite more-than-enough instability and ample shear.

Chalk it up, as far as KS/OK/NE go, as another underwhelming plains severe setup... This has became quite an extensive list the last five/six years.

Cold ‘dry’ RFD gets entrained into inflow and kills off the main updraft before it can mature.  Over and over.  News at 11.

[yoda]

New tornado watch issued for E TX, most of central Arkansas, and NW LA until 6am CDT

70/50 tor probs

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0045.html

[David Reimer]

2 hours ago, mob1 said:

Which area specifically are you referring to? It was definitely a chasable event if topography doesn't phase you. 

Chasing fast-moving tornadoes in mountains and tall trees? Heh. I can think of better ways to spend my day, and I live less than three hours from the I-49 tornado's location. 

 

The northern end of the risk certainly busted that small 10% they had, but the hail/wind verified to at least some extent. The southern end? Eh, we'll see what the report map looks like once any surveys are complete. There were certainly more than two tornadoes and at least one of them was capable of producing EF2+ damage. The watch itself verified probability wise. As for the outlook's probabilities - we still have to get through the night.