Upper Level LOL Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 MD for the western portion of the area of concern. Mainly hail and wind, only a "few" tornadoes. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0237.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: MD for the western portion of the area of concern. Mainly hail and wind, only a "few" tornadoes. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0237.html That portion is not the area of highest risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Right, though I do wonder if it will get linear before hitting central AK. Edit: Possible PDS tornado watch coming in the area of highest risk: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0238.html Mesoscale Discussion 0238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018 Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA...Central and Southern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131741Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorm activity over southeast OK and northeast TX may become rooted in the boundary layer by mid afternoon. This will increase the risk of intense storms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. A tornado watch will be needed later today. DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery shows a band of elevated convection extending from Pushmataha/Choctaw counties OK southward into Kaufman/Navarro counties TX. Some increase in intensity has been noted in the past hour, although activity remains sub-severe. A substantial capping inversion was in place over this region at 12z, but the 18z FWD/LZK soundings indicate rapid cooling at the base of the EML and a diminishing cap. Given current trends, the thunderstorm activity may become surface-based in the next couple of hours. Strong low-level wind fields will remain in place ahead of the convection, and may increase through early evening. Local VAD profiles already show 0-3 km SRH values of 300-400 m2/s2 with forecast soundings suggesting values over 500 m2/s2 this evening. Assuming activity can remain semi-discrete, a few intense supercells are likely to evolve. Parameters appear favorable for the risk of strong tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging winds. PDS wording is being considered in the tornado watch for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 SPC considering PDS wording for the watch in Arkansas. " SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorm activity over southeast OK and northeast TX may become rooted in the boundary layer by mid afternoon. This will increase the risk of intense storms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. A tornado watch will be needed later today. DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery shows a band of elevated convection extending from Pushmataha/Choctaw counties OK southward into Kaufman/Navarro counties TX. Some increase in intensity has been noted in the past hour, although activity remains sub-severe. A substantial capping inversion was in place over this region at 12z, but the 18z FWD/LZK soundings indicate rapid cooling at the base of the EML and a diminishing cap. Given current trends, the thunderstorm activity may become surface-based in the next couple of hours. Strong low-level wind fields will remain in place ahead of the convection, and may increase through early evening. Local VAD profiles already show 0-3 km SRH values of 300-400 m2/s2 with forecast soundings suggesting values over 500 m2/s2 this evening. Assuming activity can remain semi-discrete, a few intense supercells are likely to evolve. Parameters appear favorable for the risk of strong tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging winds. PDS wording is being considered in the tornado watch for this region." ..Hart.. 04/13/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Even 10% is too high. Activity down in the vicinity of that 15% tor area will become QLCS-ish fairly quickly. A few tors possibly with that given the environment, but not nearly 15% worthy, or even 10% worthy for that matter. The enhanced risk further north is probably being over-played a bit as well. Hopefully no one chasing tries to make a play on a storm in SE. NE/SW. IA/NW. MO...All of that activity will quickly rocket north of the stalled WF. SPC considering a PDS watch... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1)dry line firing in OK... 2) some clearing over AR ahead of the eastern convection 75/64 at LIT now 3) CU building in SW IA area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 new storms developing in LLJ axis over NE TX ahead of the older elevated stuff...... RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF ARKANSAS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, POSING A RISK OF TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Kinda surprised at DFW being in the watch area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 95/80 probs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 This is going to be quite the event. It's interesting to see the huge overshooting tops that have developed inside the mess of convection that's been lingering over E TX near Longview. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Have to say I agree with the 95% probs. Not quite sure on the 80 probs, I probably would have done 60 probs because I'm still questioning storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 131906Z - 132130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT BUT A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 991 MB LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. A DRYLINE BEGINS NEAR THE FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH OTHER CELLS INITIATING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW IN THE OMAHA AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE CAP WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE STORMS SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE STORMS, A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANALYZED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THE RAP IS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS STEADILY INCREASE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD REACH THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORT LARGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS STORM ORGANIZE. AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 PDS tor watch is even more comical than the 15% hatched tor. I remember when it took good days to get those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 500 mb winds are going to need to veer a bit over the southern part of the risk area. Also, saying today deserves a 5% is just as comical as the things you claim to be comical are. The low level shear/moisture over the risk area along with storms (regardless of mode) expected within that low level environment portends a higher than 5% tornado risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, andyhb said: 500 mb winds are going to need to veer a bit over the southern part of the risk area. Also, saying today deserves a 5% is just as comical as the things you claim to be comical are. The low level shear/moisture over the risk area along with storms (regardless of mode) expected within that low level environment portends a higher than 5% tornado risk. This i agree with. Not sure we need the 15% or the pds watch but this day definitely warrants more than 5% and it also needs to be hatched. It might not verify but the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: 500 mb winds are going to need to veer a bit over the southern part of the risk area. Also, saying today deserves a 5% is just as comical as the things you claim to be comical are. The low level shear/moisture over the risk area along with storms (regardless of mode) expected within that low level environment portends a higher than 5% tornado risk. Pretty sure I said there would be a few tors in the vicinity of their 15% tor area, but it's just not looking like that sig of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Pretty sure I said there would be a few tors in the vicinity of their 15% tor area, but it's just not looking like that sig of an event. That's irrelevant to what I said, you said it should be broad-brushed 5% probs earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, andyhb said: That's irrelevant to what I said, you said it should be broad-brushed 5% probs earlier. Pretty much. Just calling it on how it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5% is clearly too low of a probability today, even if this goes all QLCS, you will verify higher than 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 #TeamJoe Today being %15 hatched is lol worthy. Let's be honest. Save those for sure fire tornado setups and possible tornado outbreaks. Not this crap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Pretty much. Just calling it on how it looks. You're not just calling it how it looks, you're basically claiming with your language that everyone else is stupid for thinking this has some more significant potential. Whatever. I would go 10% hatched/45% hatched hail/30% hatched for the moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 First TOR warning of the day: The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Seminole County in east central Oklahoma... * Until 315 PM CDT * At 225 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Seminole, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Seminole, Cromwell and Little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 41 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Northeast Kansas Northwest Missouri Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over eastern Kansas will track northeastward across the watch area, while other isolated cells form over IA/northern MO. Supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 70/20 in the TOR probs... 80/70 in the hail probs re Tornado Watch #41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Even the 70% prob tor watch further north in KS/MO/IA might be a stretch. The 18z TOP sounding was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, andyhb said: You're not just calling it how it looks, you're basically claiming with your language that everyone else is stupid for thinking this has some more significant potential. Whatever. I would go 10% hatched/45% hatched hail/30% hatched for the moderate risk. Yep those were the risk categories I mentioned last night to you and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Even the 70% prob tor watch further north in KS/MO/IA might be a stretch. The 18z TOP sounding was terrible. I don't really consider this a terrible sounding for 18z considering the wind fields downstream are more favorable. Pretty solid thermodynamic profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Even the 70% prob tor watch further north in KS/MO/IA might be a stretch. The 18z TOP sounding was terrible. 18z OAX sounding, while north of the warm front, was very impressive kinematically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, andyhb said: You're not just calling it how it looks, you're basically claiming with your language that everyone else is stupid for thinking this has some more significant potential. Whatever. I would go 10% hatched/45% hatched hail/30% hatched for the moderate risk. The same can be said for the opposite. Agree with hail/wind probs down there. Maybe 45% wind if the QLCS takes off later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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