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April 12th-15th Winter Storm


MNstorms

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16 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

I’m surprised. Nearly all short range guidance confirms that there will be atleast some accretion into northern Illinois - enough for impacts. The lake influence will definitely be the test. 

Yeah, right near the shore is tricky... It's possible it doesn't really drop below 32-33 there and so there's little/no accretion.  But just a little bit inland, even a couple miles looks more certain to be problematic.  A number of stations in far southeast WI are already 34-35. 

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, right near the shore is tricky... It's possible it doesn't really drop below 32-33 there and so there's little/no accretion.  But just a little bit inland, even a couple miles looks more certain to be problematic.  A number of stations in far southeast WI are already 34-35. 

MKE reporting light snow, 35/33

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2 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

NAM has 0.75" of freezing rain tomorrow, followed by heavy rain, and topped off with a 7" snowfall on Monday. Fat chance but wow it really is 4 different storms all packed into one monster. Monday is going to be a slushy mess

NAM 3km which has a better grasp of surface and upper air temperatures at short ranges has ~2.0" in the GTA Monday. I don't think we will get any sort of accumulation but lets see. 

What a terrible month. 

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17 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

NAM 3km which has a better grasp of surface and upper air temperatures at short ranges has ~2.0" in the GTA Monday. I don't think we will get any sort of accumulation but lets see. 

What a terrible month. 

I'm thinking it'll be the coldest April since 1975. I too am hoping for warm weather by May.

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53 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

MKE reporting light snow, 35/33

Should see some mid level warming later to turn it more toward freezing rain/sleet (or possibly plain rain near the shore depending on temps).  If the warming aloft is less than anticipated, then it could actually result in a scenario where the better ice zone ends up along/just south of the WI state line.  

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Should see some mid level warming later to turn it more toward freezing rain/sleet (or possibly plain rain near the shore depending on temps).  If the warming aloft is less than anticipated, then it could actually result in a scenario where the better ice zone ends up along/just south of the WI state line.  

Agreed. Temp here is already down to 31° with one hellacious wind from the NE. 

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11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm thinking it'll be the coldest April since 1975. I too am hoping for warm weather by May.

April 1995 was pretty cold too so imo it might be the coldest since then. 1975 for now seems like a stretch. Mean temp for Apr. 95 was 39.3F vs. 37F in Apr. 75. Through April 13th YYZ is at 34F and the next 5-7 days are expected to be below 50F.  

Either way I hope May is warmer. May 1975 was way above average, lol. Getting tired of this now. 

 

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Today alone has been interesting. 1-3" of sleet across the GTA, roads are a mess and temperatures are solidly in the mid 20s now. The big question now is how bad does tomorrow get? The temperatures being in the mid 20s for 6-12 hours ahead of the next batch will cool almost everything and allow for greater ice accretion. Also how long do we stay in the 20s with the freezing rain? The use of "historic" in the warnings by Environment Canada might be correct if everything comes together. 

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Impressive... gonna get interesting there if it stays mostly zr.

yeah this is a little worrisome for sure.   tree's are swaying hard with the sound of zr caked on.  power lines and large tree's galore  running through the property.   Overdue for a ice storm along the lake just never envisioned one this time of yr.

No pingers ATM.  winds have relaxed some but still gusty for sure... eerily quiet out there as i typed this

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