smoof Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, London snowsquall said: Hope things don't get too bad in your area. We do a yearly golf trip to mid-Michigan/Mt. Pleasant area in June and the courses we usually play are very scenic and heavily wooded. Hopefully sleet will save the day instead of so much freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 The first pingers started at 7:27 am with some freezing rain coming just before it. My forecast increased the amount of precip and rose the winds, boned. Let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 One of the good things about riding the pinger - freezing rain line is that sleet/ice pellets tend to "steal" the freezing rain before hitting the ground, so I'm hoping the ZR is simply being overdone. Hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowcaine said: One of the good things about riding the pinger - freezing rain line is that sleet/ice pellets tend to "steal" the freezing rain before hitting the ground, so I'm hoping the ZR is simply being overdone. Hoping. Get your cameras ready for tomorrow in case there are some stunning scenes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 6Z GFS is trending toward a faster changeover to snow from sleet and freezing rain tonight for SC WI. Will have to watch if this trend continues in later model runs, and if it does MKX is going to need to update their forecast. Currently they're going for 1-3" total accumulation but 6Z GFS is pointing to some 6" or greater amounts now. I would definitely prefer to see 6" of snow versus a lot of freezing rain/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 14, 2018 Author Share Posted April 14, 2018 Although I haven't seen it often it's the largest graupel I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Snow boundary much further south than progged in Michigan right now. Here's to hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 hours ago, London snowsquall said: Environment Canada using the 'potentially historic ice storm' wording for us in London as well in their 5 am update. Might be nice to see when you are talking snow - for ice, not so much.........and especially in mid April. Looks like you'll be in the icing bullseye Alan, or just south of it. Here's hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowcaine said: Snow boundary much further south than progged in Michigan right now. Here's to hoping! Bad Axe and Mount Pleasant were reporting snow, which is a bit further south than the models progged (though it's likely not pure snow). YYZ is still a couple degrees above freezing at ~700mb, which will make snow impossible...unless there's a dry layer that the models are underdoing. I'd be surprised if we saw a flake here but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 12" or so of cement so far....:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 RA/PL mixture has commenced. Still a bit above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 22 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like you'll be in the icing bullseye Alan, or just south of it. Here's hoping for the best. Thanks for the positive sentiment, Mike. Getting things ready with flashlights etc. The last ice of significance here was April '03. I remember doing a lot of tree cleanup afterwards but fortunately we didn't have any come down in our yard or on our street. Time will tell how this one turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 The HRRR is the only model which spares London from a historic ice storm today into tomorrow. Getting pretty concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Heavy snow right now after the overnight lull. Probably have around 3” but the wind is very strong and blowing everything around so I’m just eyeballing. We should have on and off snow this morning with the death band coming through this afternoon bringing 1-2”/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Fully ice pellets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 The NAM has the RN—ZR transition here ~16z while HRRR has it ~21z. Models obviously struggling with this air mass. Will be keeping an eye on the temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: The NAM has the RN—ZR transition here ~16z while HRRR has it ~21z. Models obviously struggling with this air mass. Will be keeping an eye on the temperature. Thanks for the info. Don't like the projected ice/wind combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: The NAM has the RN—ZR transition here ~16z while HRRR has it ~21z. Models obviously struggling with this air mass. Will be keeping an eye on the temperature. I wouldn't trust any of the NAM outputs at this stage, it's doing a poor job handling the system already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: Bad Axe and Mount Pleasant were reporting snow, which is a bit further south than the models progged (though it's likely not pure snow). YYZ is still a couple degrees above freezing at ~700mb, which will make snow impossible...unless there's a dry layer that the models are underdoing. I'd be surprised if we saw a flake here but time will tell. Don't trust some of the observation. I can tell by stepping outside that it isn't snowing in bad axe. sleet freezing rain mix with trees that are icing up despite temps right around freezing. It isn't even dripping anymore off the trees pretty much all freezing on contact. Winds are at 40 so this isn't looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, snowcaine said: Fully ice pellets here And back to rain, but temperature is right at the freezing mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 53 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: RA/PL mixture has commenced. Still a bit above freezing. I've dropped below freezing. Only light ice pellets at the moment, though. I believe the heavier precip is due this afternoon, with the heaviest freezing rain due Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowcaine said: And back to rain, but temperature is right at the freezing mark. Starting to smell a bust here. HRRR/RAP keeping the heaviest precip to our NW and that's pretty much being corroborated by the radar. Going to be tough to get accums of PL with just showery precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Just flipped to below freezing here within the last hour. Currently -0.8C and freezing rain. Not seeing any pellets coming down unfortunately. Winds are already a bit stronger than I’d like as well. Local obs station reporting gusts over 50 km/h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Freezing rain here now. Little icicles dangling from the power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Starting to smell a bust here. HRRR/RAP keeping the heaviest precip to our NW and that's pretty much being corroborated by the radar. Going to be tough to get accums of PL with just showery precip. The HRRR also keeps us more into the freezing rain, which is concerning. It shows close to 0.5” of precip as FRZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Starting to smell a bust here. HRRR/RAP keeping the heaviest precip to our NW and that's pretty much being corroborated by the radar. Going to be tough to get accums of PL with just showery precip. Depends what you mean by bust... by the looks of it, this is going to be a ZR event here. Definitely the outcome I least wanted but should be interesting. HRRR spitting out 0.5" of icing today and that doesn't even include tomorrow's ZR, which was looking like another 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 12z NAM gives us nearly 2" of ZR tomorrow morning. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 14, 2018 Author Share Posted April 14, 2018 Most roads in SW MN are now closed. Starting to pick up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 ZR mixed with IP even with this lighter stuff. Once precip picks up (a bit of a lull coming up but clearly heavier returns upstream, we hopefully will stay mostly IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 14, 2018 Author Share Posted April 14, 2018 What.... Quote ALBERT LEA,MN (AEL) ASOS reports gust of 107 knots (123.1 mph) from NE @ 1435Z 70mph gust here EDIT same station. Confusing numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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