April 12th-15th Winter Storm

[snowcaine]

18Z GFS dumps 8-10" of snow across the GTA now haha. Can't make up its mind.

[Torchageddon]

TWN was giving me 10 cm of ice pellets for Saturday and then before I could screengrab the ludicrous weekend forecast they changed it to heavy snow on Sat afternoon (10 cm in a few hours). My hunch is that what snow I get will be the most interesting or "best" of the entire fall-winter-spring seasons. It may not be the heaviest or most blizzard-like (who knows though), but the most memorable. Either way I expect more changes and I don't trust TWN forecasting until it is 6-10 hours away. I will enjoy this amazing setup as Lord only knows how long its been since anything fun has taken place here.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

10 hours ago, Toronto4 said:

 

If the frontal boundary sinks further south than currently modelled, then we could even see some snow mix in with the ice pellets. The 06z HRDPS shows some precip falling as pure snow tomorrow, though the majority of it falls as IP.

I don't think the lake will be a factor tomorrow afternoon as we'll have low level cold air coming from the NE and temperatures falling during the day. It'll probably be more of a factor on Sunday afternoon when the WAA pushes through and changes the precip from sleet/freezing rain to heavy rain.

In any event, this is an unusual and fascinating setup for this time of the year.

Absolutely. This is perhaps the most interesting April storm we've had since 2003, perhaps since April 1975.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/hourly_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=61&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=Toronto&timeframe=1&Day=3&Year=1975&Month=4

[Met1985]

In central Wisconsin we have been getting everything today. Snow, sleet and heavy rain. Currently we are getting a mixture of sleet and rain.

[Torchageddon]

31 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Absolutely. This is perhaps the most interesting April storm we've had since 2003, perhaps since April 1975.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/hourly_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=61&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=Toronto&timeframe=1&Day=3&Year=1975&Month=4

This is a coincidence as I just got to March-April 1975 in my data collection on when the first 20ºC reading occurs every spring. I noticed that 1975 is similar to what regime we have currently but I didn't look at precip or storms. One difference is I believe we will be colder than mid-late April 1975. And I was using the same EC website but it was the Kitchener station.

[Met1985]

Wow just had thunder sleet in Stevens Point! That's a first. Heavy sleet currently that is starting to cover the ground.

[Jackstraw]

/\Nice!  When you first get a good thunder pinger it's great.  When you get pingered year after year not so great lol.  Enjoy the kitchen sink!  Loves me some Haywood county.  Miss slinging the dogs around in the back of the SUV coming in on 276.  Had a little cabin up around Cataloochee.  Miss the sounds of the Elk in the evening and my "very" occasional run ins with Popcorn many many years ago.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Waves of Sleet/Hail/mixed frozen precip have whitened the ground this evening and accumulated around 0.5”. One of the larger sleet accumulation events I’ve personally witnessed. (Although pales in comparison to what others here have seen) Transitioning to snow now and readily accumulating on the side streets by my building. 

[Met1985]

35 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

/\Nice!  When you first get a good thunder pinger it's great.  When you get pingered year after year not so great lol.  Enjoy the kitchen sink!  Loves me some Haywood county.  Miss slinging the dogs around in the back of the SUV coming in on 276.  Had a little cabin up around Cataloochee.  Miss the sounds of the Elk in the evening and my "very" occasional run ins with Popcorn many many years ago.

Oh nice man! Glad you know the area! I miss it too but took a railroad job up here so I'm seeing how things work out. Yeah the thunder is rolling tonight.  Crazy cool.

[MNstorms]

Last NAM decided to up the totals a bit with over 30'' 

 

[Hoosier]

NAM Kuchera has almost 3 feet for Minneapolis lol

[Hoosier]

Northern row of LOT counties could get interesting tomorrow night into Sunday. Still enough uncertainty with thermal profiles though.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Snow and sleet stacking up pretty efficiently right now. The roads are already snow covered and there are reports of lightning in the metro. If the models are to be believed we are in for a historic 48 hours of snowfall. 

[Met1985]

Yep went from heavy sleet to basically whiteout conditions. 

[MNstorms]

Less than 1'' of snow with this first wave and nothing coming out of the SW. I wonder how long this break will last.

[Chicago Storm]

Looks like a lock to get into a mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow around here from tomorrow night on into Sunday. Probably little to no accumulations of each though.

[Hoosier]

Pretty impressive winds in Iowa now... several sites are gusting over 50 mph.

[harrisale]

Starting to get a tad nervous now about ice in my backyard. I’ve never seen this kind of wording from Environment Canada before. “Potentially historic ice storm”. Yikes... Sounds like it could be a doozy tomorrow; for once I’m hoping it’s a bust.

“

10:36 PM EDT Friday 13 April 2018
Freezing rain warning in effect for:

• Guelph - Erin - Southern Wellington County
• Kitchener - Cambridge - Region of Waterloo
• Mount Forest - Arthur - Northern Wellington County

Significant ice build-up due to freezing rain is expected or occurring.

A potentially historic ice storm expected this weekend. Widespread power outages possible.

A moisture laden low pressure area over the Central Plains States will amble towards the lower Great Lakes this weekend. As the low approaches, brisk northeasterly winds will pump in cold Arctic air, forcing temperatures below freezing Saturday morning.

Any current rain will become widespread Saturday morning then quickly change to freezing rain. It will likely persist into Saturday evening. Some ice pellets may be mixed in at times.

A lull in precipitation is likely Saturday evening with patchy freezing drizzle expected. However, as the low approaches Saturday night, freezing rain will likely become widespread again and persist most of Sunday before changing over to rain. Significant rain may fall late Sunday and Sunday night creating localized flooding.

Ice build up to 25 mm appears likely across the region by late Sunday. It may exceed that in some locales. Strong winds gusting to 70 km/h are also expected Saturday night and Sunday. The combination of excessive ice accumulations and strong winds may result in widespread power outages due to fallen trees and power lines.”

[Harry Perry]

Guidance was way off on temps today... even short range was +/- 5° at minimum. Being that it’s already 38° with rain, (models have us at 50° at the current hour), I question the freezing rain threat here tomorrow. 

 

I feel like all indications point toward decent accretion, but at the same time - I feel as if we’ll be 32° and heavy rain with limited accretion. April 2003 featured a similar scenario, but with a less robust high pressure to the NE. Feel it’ll be a wait and see, but with my mother dependent on oxygen, will play it safe and pick up a generator in the morning. 

[outflow]

28 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Guidance was way off on temps today... even short range was +/- 5° at minimum. Being that it’s already 38° with rain, (models have us at 50° at the current hour), I question the freezing rain threat here tomorrow. 

 

I feel like all indications point toward decent accretion, but at the same time - I feel as if we’ll be 32° and heavy rain with limited accretion. April 2003 featured a similar scenario, but with a less robust high pressure to the NE. Feel it’ll be a wait and see, but with my mother dependent on oxygen, will play it safe and pick up a generator in the morning. 

Seen a story out of Saginaw that both home depot and manards were sold out generators this afternoon. 

[Harry Perry]

21 minutes ago, outflow said:

Seen a story out of Saginaw that both home depot and manards were sold out generators this afternoon. 

I believe it. Local Mets have been hard on the 1-2” of ice there. I’ll check tomorrow morning runs before I get too carried away.

[Stebo]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

And I should clarify the 2 worst ice storms I saw were both accompanied by snow. By far the worst was January 30-31, 2002. We had 9.5" of snow followed by 1.75" of freezing rain. It was absolute paralysis for a few days here- the entire area had zero power. It was the most surreal sight to look out at a pitch black night sky with everything draped in heavy ice and not a single light to be seen. It was beautiful but also a nuisance. The other bad ice storm was December 11-12, 2000, when we had 5" of snow followed by 0.75" of freezing rain ending as another 1.5" of snow. Temperatures plummeted right after the storm so the next day had a Winter wonderland with blue skies, crystal draped trees and white snow on the ground. Once again absolute gorgeous scenery, but this time I was a little ticked as a foot of snow and no ice fell just to my Northwest. Those 2 storms are it for legit ice storms in my memory bank. We were fringed with the April 4, 2003 & March 14, 1997 ice storms which devastated the northern suburbs. And we had another event also in the early 2000s where we had about a 0.75" of freezing rain but then temperatures warmed into the 40s overnight so it was just temporary.  Other those, it's pretty much just been those dangerous but minor glazings you get a few times every Winter, so basically it has been 16 years since I have seen a legit ice storm in my area. Again, some of those glazings are extremely dangerous, but when I say legit ice storm I'm talking the kind where the trees are just caked in heavy ice and icicles.

Remember Mar 14 97 very well. That was a doozy of an ice storm.

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

NAM Kuchera has almost 3 feet for Minneapolis lol

So you are saying that the Twins/Chicago series is going to be PPD?

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Stebo said:

So you are saying that the Twins/Chicago series is going to be PPD?

They should've moved that thing to Milwaukee since the Brewers are out of town.  At least it has a roof.  Now it's going to be doubleheaders galore/less off days.

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

They should've moved that thing to Milwaukee since the Brewers are out of town.  At least it has a roof.  Now it's going to be doubleheaders galore/less off days.

Well, it will only hurt one team, the other is only going to the basement anyways.

[cyclone77]

At 5:09am Sioux Falls gusting to 67mph, 1/4 mile with thundersnow.

[Chicago WX]

10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

At 5:09am Sioux Falls gusting to 67mph, 1/4 mile with thundersnow.

Here's the 5 minute obs for FSD. Straight legit blizzard. 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KFSD&wfo=fgz&num=72&hfmetars=1

[London snowsquall]

Environment Canada using the 'potentially historic ice storm' wording for us in London as well in their 5 am update.   Might be nice to see when you are talking snow - for ice, not so much.........and especially in mid April.

[smoof]

Just changed over to sleet / freezing rain here, a few icy spots starting to freeze on my sidewalk, the fun has begun!

[London snowsquall]

18 minutes ago, smoof said:

Just changed over to sleet / freezing rain here, a few icy spots starting to freeze on my sidewalk, the fun has begun!

Hope things don't get too bad in your area.  We do a yearly golf trip to mid-Michigan/Mt. Pleasant area in June and the courses we usually play are very scenic and heavily wooded.