MNstorms Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 Pre snow rainbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Or in other words, a messy unwelcome weekend is coming. The best part is that starting next weekend, we will finally transition over into Spring. Well at least I hope! I wonder how much accumulation YYZ will record in regards to the pellets. We had a similar set-up in March 2007 where we started off as snow then transitioned over to pellets and freezing rain and eventually rain. However, that was March and this is mid-April. I don't expect any snowfall in the GTA given the thin layer of warmth at 700mb. Environment Canada is forecasting 5 cm (2”) of ice pellets tomorrow. If that pans out, it’ll be added to the seasonal snowfall total at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Ask the LAF guys.... Same over this way. I still have nightmares about drifting sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, Toronto4 said: Environment Canada is forecasting 5 cm (2”) of ice pellets tomorrow. If that pans out, it’ll be added to the seasonal snowfall total at YYZ. I think the potential is there for more depending on how much depth we can gain with the cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere. Another thing to keep in mind is how much influence the lake will have on the temperatures. It's April and the Sun angle is much higher and therefore, areas closer to the lake may see brief periods of freezing rain and ice pellets but otherwise stay as a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I think the potential is there for more depending on how much depth we can gain with the cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere. Another thing to keep in mind is how much influence the lake will have on the temperatures. It's April and the Sun angle is much higher and therefore, areas closer to the lake may see brief periods of freezing rain and ice pellets but otherwise stay as a cold rain. If the frontal boundary sinks further south than currently modelled, then we could even see some snow mix in with the ice pellets. The 06z HRDPS shows some precip falling as pure snow tomorrow, though the majority of it falls as IP. I don't think the lake will be a factor tomorrow afternoon as we'll have low level cold air coming from the NE and temperatures falling during the day. It'll probably be more of a factor on Sunday afternoon when the WAA pushes through and changes the precip from sleet/freezing rain to heavy rain. In any event, this is an unusual and fascinating setup for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 12z NAM looks to be a doozie for southern Wisconsin and south central Michigan. Also drops the temps into the 29-30° range here with heavy rain. This should be interesting to say the least. Edit* AND northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Speaking of So. WS........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Freezing rain warnings now issued by Environment Canada. Their warning swath actually appears to be a bit north of the current model progs for the heaviest ZR zones so we’ll see where the boundary sets up. Personally I would have also included the Woodstock area in the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 hour ago, harrisale said: Freezing rain warnings now issued by Environment Canada. Their earning swath actually appears to be a bit north of the current model progs for the heaviest ZR zones so we’ll see where the boundary sets up. Personally I would have also included the Woodstock area in the warning. Agreed. It looks like the ZR warning will see mostly PL, with a decent amount of ZR after the change over, but not the ice storm amounts that will develop to the SW. 12z NAM would be a disaster for a lot of areas. It barely moves areas along and east of the escarpment above freezing on Sunday. 3.00" of QPF at YYZ as sleet. Lol if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Agreed. It looks like the ZR warning will see mostly PL, with a decent amount of ZR after the change over, but not the ice storm amounts that will develop to the SW. 12z NAM would be a disaster for a lot of areas. It barely moves areas along and east of the escarpment above freezing on Sunday. 3.00" of QPF at YYZ as sleet. Lol if that verifies. Any thoughts on your old stomping grounds here? Maybe we are too far south - altho' Woodstock is uncomfortably close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Agreed. It looks like the ZR warning will see mostly PL, with a decent amount of ZR after the change over, but not the ice storm amounts that will develop to the SW. 12z NAM would be a disaster for a lot of areas. It barely moves areas along and east of the escarpment above freezing on Sunday. 3.00" of QPF at YYZ as sleet. Lol if that verifies. You are talking about 6-9" of sleet if that qpf verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: Speaking of So. WS........ Was talked about in the Central/Western sub, but there was a cell in MN earlier that produced winds near 80 mph with temps only in the 30s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: You are talking about 6-9" of sleet if that qpf verifies. Sounds fun . I am starting to buy into the ice storm for the northern suburbs, just hoping that the area along the water can hold onto a 33-35 scenario to keep most of the city in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Was talked about in the Central/Western sub, but there was a cell in MN earlier that produced winds near 80 mph with temps only in the 30s! Wtf, must have been an extreme near ground inversion that it busted through. Either way that is absurd and incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Harry Perry said: 12z NAM looks to be a doozie for southern Wisconsin and south central Michigan. Also drops the temps into the 29-30° range here with heavy rain. This should be interesting to say the least. Edit* AND northern Illinois. It even gets a little ice here, but I'm not buying that yet. I think it was DTX that mentioned that the GFS is not handling upstream dewpoints well, so that is another reason to be skeptical of the warmer GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Wtf, must have been an extreme near ground inversion that it busted through. Either way that is absurd and incredible. Yeah, it reminded me of the 107 mph gust at MLI on 3/12/2006 (temps in the 40s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: It even gets a little ice here, but I'm not buying that yet. I think it was DTX that mentioned that the GFS is not handling upstream dewpoints well, so that is another reason to be skeptical of the warmer GFS. GFS like always is hedging toward climo, this works both ways. So in other words it is not seeing it being possible that it might be this cold or have that strong of a cold shallow layer near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Was talked about in the Central/Western sub, but there was a cell in MN earlier that produced winds near 80 mph with temps only in the 30s! 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Wtf, must have been an extreme near ground inversion that it busted through. Either way that is absurd and incredible. Report. It was 34F at the time at the closest airport. 0752 AM TSTM WND GST 1 N RUSHMORE 43.64N 95.79W 04/13/2018 M78 MPH NOBLES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 I noticed GRR dropped a 4/4/2003 mention in their afd. It does look like a reasonable comparison, but with an even stronger surface high and higher pressures extending farther south this time. Makes me believe that icing will make it farther south than what happened in that 2003 event... so for anyone who just barely missed ice back then by being too warm, it might be something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I noticed GRR dropped a 4/4/2003 mention in their afd. It does look like a reasonable comparison, but with an even stronger surface high and higher pressures extending farther south this time. Makes me believe that icing will make it farther south than what happened in that 2003 event... so for anyone who just barely missed ice back then by being too warm, it might be something to keep in mind. That is the number one CIPS analog to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: That is the number one CIPS analog to this storm. I lost power for three days after that one, hopefully we can dodge this bullet bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Agreed. It looks like the ZR warning will see mostly PL, with a decent amount of ZR after the change over, but not the ice storm amounts that will develop to the SW. 12z NAM would be a disaster for a lot of areas. It barely moves areas along and east of the escarpment above freezing on Sunday. 3.00" of QPF at YYZ as sleet. Lol if that verifies. According to the Euro maps from the weather.us site, today's 12z run shows around 0.2 to 0.4" (5 to 10 mm) of precip falls in the form of snow tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see if the heavy precip rates can overcome the warm layer for a brief period to allow snow to fall in the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 That southern WS cell was a pretty prolific hailer... or was it just giant pingers? Which thread does it go in lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 sorry wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 APX thoughts about the total storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 hour ago, josh_4184 said: APX thoughts about the total storm That icing map is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Toronto4 said: According to the Euro maps from the weather.us site, today's 12z run shows around 0.2 to 0.4" (5 to 10 mm) of precip falls in the form of snow tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see if the heavy precip rates can overcome the warm layer for a brief period to allow snow to fall in the GTA. Are those maps known for sleet contamination? Also, maybe it's snow from the deformation afterwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 11 hours ago, Minnesota_storms said: yeah Ice Storms in the upper midwest tend to actually be rare. They happen more in the middle of the country where temperature average 20-32F for a whole winter. The only one here in MN I can remember in my life was Feb 2007. And I should clarify the 2 worst ice storms I saw were both accompanied by snow. By far the worst was January 30-31, 2002. We had 9.5" of snow followed by 1.75" of freezing rain. It was absolute paralysis for a few days here- the entire area had zero power. It was the most surreal sight to look out at a pitch black night sky with everything draped in heavy ice and not a single light to be seen. It was beautiful but also a nuisance. The other bad ice storm was December 11-12, 2000, when we had 5" of snow followed by 0.75" of freezing rain ending as another 1.5" of snow. Temperatures plummeted right after the storm so the next day had a Winter wonderland with blue skies, crystal draped trees and white snow on the ground. Once again absolute gorgeous scenery, but this time I was a little ticked as a foot of snow and no ice fell just to my Northwest. Those 2 storms are it for legit ice storms in my memory bank. We were fringed with the April 4, 2003 & March 14, 1997 ice storms which devastated the northern suburbs. And we had another event also in the early 2000s where we had about a 0.75" of freezing rain but then temperatures warmed into the 40s overnight so it was just temporary. Other those, it's pretty much just been those dangerous but minor glazings you get a few times every Winter, so basically it has been 16 years since I have seen a legit ice storm in my area. Again, some of those glazings are extremely dangerous, but when I say legit ice storm I'm talking the kind where the trees are just caked in heavy ice and icicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just for posterity... 18z RGEM really went off the deep end on the freezing rain. Right in my backyard too. Even half of this would be trouble. Luckily the GFS and NAM are a bit more conservative on the ZR amounts and a tad south with the placement also. Fingers crossed... there’s a lot of nice trees in my neighbourhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 42 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Are those maps known for sleet contamination? Also, maybe it's snow from the deformation afterwards? Not sure but we are on the southern edge of the heavy snow tomorrow according the 18z GFS. It gives us 8” of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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