April 12th-15th Winter Storm

[Ottawa Blizzard]

29 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I was going with climo and thinking the biggest ZR threat would be to our north. Now it seems like it actually may be S/W of the escarpment and we get pelleted to death. 

Just another nudge 'til we're in snow.  

This event is starting to remind me of the April 3-4, 2003 storm. That was a big ice pellet event, I believe.

[tim123]

Got a inch of zr in rochester ny. About 100000 without power. Euro shows 1.5 with this one.

[snowstormcanuck]

27 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

This event is starting to remind me of the April 3-4, 2003 storm. That was a big ice pellet event, I believe.

Yup. 3-4" of PL roughly. The most I've ever seen. With TSPL to boot.

April 2013 was supposed to rival that but climo prevailed and we were warm enough to avoid much wintry accum.

 

[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Yup. 3-4" of PL roughly. The most I've ever seen. With TSPL to boot.

April 2013 was supposed to rival that but climo prevailed and we were warm enough to avoid much wintry accum.

 

That 03 event was preceded by warmth too, 70s here in SEMI that transitioned to 30s and we ended up with a fairly significant ice storm.

[MNstorms]

Record breaker?

Minneapolis looking for it's largest April snowfall.
 

Quote

 

Top ten largest April Snowstorms in the Twin Cities 1891-2013

Rank Date       Year  Amount (in)
----------------------------
#1   April 14    1983 13.6
#2   April 27-28 1907 13.0
#3   April 19-21 1893 10.0
#4   April 29-30 1984 9.7
#5   April 6-9   1923 9.6
#6   April 13-14 1928 9.5
#7   April 13-14 1949 9.3
#8   April 1-2   2002 7.6
#9   April 8-9   1980 7.6 (tie)
#10  April 4-5   1957 7.4

 

Last time we had snow this late in Minnesota was May 2nd, 2013 with as much as 18''.

[MNstorms]

NAM has really spread the numbers SE. Rochester had almost nothing before now maybe a foot. Shows 20'' for me but before was 8''. Severe storms than 10'' for parts of Iowa?

[Hoosier]

Obviously a lot of sleet contamination on the Tidbits map.  Here's just snow

[Hoosier]

Road trip to Door county lol  

[Harry Perry]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Road trip to Door county lol  

Haha for real though. That’s impressive. 

[Stebo]

I hope the NAM is wrong!

[OHweather]

This is a pretty classic ice setup, sans the time of year.  Anamalous cold with the upper low moving across SE Canada with a very strong surface high sliding west to east behind the upper low.  Low level cold should bleed south, and I’d lean closer to the colder guidance than the GFS given the setup.  Questions about road impacts where ZR falls given warmer surfaces, though anyone that sees sleet or snow will see travel impacts.  Copious amounts of QPF so anyone that sees ZR and is more than a bit below freezing will have power outage cocerns...though do think it’s prudent to remember that the ice accretion:QPF ratio will be less than 1:1, especially where temps only get down to 31-32. So though I’d lean towards the colder models verifying, the amount of accretion on the southern edge may be a good bit less than what the model ZR maps spit out. 

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

This is a pretty classic ice setup, sans the time of year.  Anamalous cold with the upper low moving across SE Canada with a very strong surface high sliding west to east behind the upper low.  Low level cold should bleed south, and I’d lean closer to the colder guidance than the GFS given the setup.  Questions about road impacts where ZR falls given warmer surfaces, though anyone that sees sleet or snow will see travel impacts.  Copious amounts of QPF so anyone that sees ZR and is more than a bit below freezing will have power outage cocerns...though do think it’s prudent to remember that the ice accretion:QPF ratio will be less than 1:1, especially where temps only get down to 31-32. So though I’d lean towards the colder models verifying, the amount of accretion on the southern edge may be a good bit less than what the model ZR maps spit out. 

Well said and agree 100%

[Harry Perry]

10 minutes ago, OHweather said:

This is a pretty classic ice setup, sans the time of year.  Anamalous cold with the upper low moving across SE Canada with a very strong surface high sliding west to east behind the upper low.  Low level cold should bleed south, and I’d lean closer to the colder guidance than the GFS given the setup.  Questions about road impacts where ZR falls given warmer surfaces, though anyone that sees sleet or snow will see travel impacts.  Copious amounts of QPF so anyone that sees ZR and is more than a bit below freezing will have power outage cocerns...though do think it’s prudent to remember that the ice accretion:QPF ratio will be less than 1:1, especially where temps only get down to 31-32. So though I’d lean towards the colder models verifying, the amount of accretion on the southern edge may be a good bit less than what the model ZR maps spit out. 

X2

Hard to get the same amount of accretion this time of year especially with sub-par temperatures. This is where 29° vs 32° make a big difference ice-wise.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

All the runs this morning have shifted the ice and snow south a little

[MNstorms]

RDPS might be overdoing it with 2' for me.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

This is a pretty classic ice setup, sans the time of year.  Anamalous cold with the upper low moving across SE Canada with a very strong surface high sliding west to east behind the upper low.  Low level cold should bleed south, and I’d lean closer to the colder guidance than the GFS given the setup.  Questions about road impacts where ZR falls given warmer surfaces, though anyone that sees sleet or snow will see travel impacts.  Copious amounts of QPF so anyone that sees ZR and is more than a bit below freezing will have power outage cocerns...though do think it’s prudent to remember that the ice accretion:QPF ratio will be less than 1:1, especially where temps only get down to 31-32. So though I’d lean towards the colder models verifying, the amount of accretion on the southern edge may be a good bit less than what the model ZR maps spit out. 

Yep agreed, only area where you will be closer to 1:1 is central MI where the temps might be closer to 28-30. But there is an uncertainty of where the ice and sleet line will reside in that area too. It could be a mixed mode of precip through Saturday night in those areas.

[OHweather]

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yep agreed, only area where you will be closer to 1:1 is central MI where the temps might be closer to 28-30. But there is an uncertainty of where the ice and sleet line will reside in that area too. It could be a mixed mode of precip through Saturday night in those areas.

Yeah, I tend to think between limited accretion on the southern edge and sleet mixing in farther north, it’ll be a relatively narrow zone that may see a true ice storm with significant tree damage...but again, anyone that sees a substantial amount of solid precip will see more impacts to roads.  Definitely unusual for mid-April.  

[Stebo]

8 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah, I tend to think between limited accretion on the southern edge and sleet mixing in farther north, it’ll be a relatively narrow zone that may see a true ice storm with significant tree damage...but again, anyone that sees a substantial amount of solid precip will see more impacts to roads.  Definitely unusual for mid-April.  

The only thing I can think of is April 03 and that was the first few days of April.

[MNstorms]

Heaviest over the Twin Cities? Could be one of the largest snowfalls ever here.

[MNstorms]

NWS forecast upped the totals. 

[michsnowfreak]

While we have no problem getting snow here, ice storms have been rare. I can count 3 legit ice storms here in the last 20 years (talking actual ice storms, not those minor glazes you see every winter). So I really dont have enough experience with them to put any input in. But for those areas to my north expecting ice...think of this. Look at how mid April snow has a difficult time sticking during the day vs night. And when it does stick during the day its wet and slushy on all but the most extreme circumstances. So be careful how much you think day time rain will gridlock everything in ice.

[MNstorms]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

While we have no problem getting snow here, ice storms have been rare. I can count 3 legit ice storms here in the last 20 years. So I really domt have enough experience with them to put any input in. But for those areas to my north expecting ice...think of this. Look at how mid April snow has a difficult time sticking during the day vs night. And when it does stick during the day its wet and slushy on all but the most extreme circumstances. So be careful how much you think day time rain will gridlock everything in ice.

yeah Ice Storms in the upper midwest tend to actually be rare. They happen more in the middle of the country where temperature average 20-32F for a whole winter. The only one here in MN I can remember in my life was Feb 2007.

[smoof]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

While we have no problem getting snow here, ice storms have been rare. I can count 3 legit ice storms here in the last 20 years (talking actual ice storms, not those minor glazes you see every winter). So I really dont have enough experience with them to put any input in. But for those areas to my north expecting ice...think of this. Look at how mid April snow has a difficult time sticking during the day vs night. And when it does stick during the day its wet and slushy on all but the most extreme circumstances. So be careful how much you think day time rain will gridlock everything in ice.

I'm hoping that sleet is going to save me from 1-2 weeks without power or that the april sun angle might help it melt some during daylight hours, I'm starting to freak out now though with lots of models putting out up to 1" ice here and 27-29 degrees most of the time it's coming down.

[snowcaine]

I have never experienced a storm that was mostly ice pellet. I have no idea what to expect? 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, Minnesota_storms said:

NWS forecast upped the totals. 

Going to be interesting to watch this all shake out. I imagine we will have 6”+ of concrete accumulate, but depth probably won’t be all that impressive due to compacting. It is about to be a fun 36 hours for sure!

[snowstormcanuck]

49 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

I have never experienced a storm that was mostly ice pellet. I have no idea what to expect? 

Let's see...

1. Pinging sound off the windows that interferes with whatever quiet activity you're doing at home,

2. Model consensus QPF is 1.00-1.25" for tomorrow? From all that juice you get enough pellets that the grass tips still show,

3. Shovelling even an inch or two of them produces a heart attack because they're so dense,

4. No winter storm warning because it fails to satisfy the snow or ice criteria for that warning.

In sum, it sucks little icy balls.

[josh_4184]

GFS still spitting out over 2' of snow for my area, little relieved that the now the heaviest ice is progged for locations further south. GFS spitting out over an 1.5" of ice for Central Mi, probably over done but not out of the realm of possibility. Hope people down there are prepared and have their generators ready. 

 

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Let's see...

1. Pinging sound off the windows that interferes with whatever quiet activity you're doing at home,

2. Model consensus QPF is 1.00-1.25" for tomorrow? From all that juice you get enough pellets that the grass tips still show,

3. Shovelling even an inch or two of them produces a heart attack because they're so dense,

4. No winter storm warning because it fails to satisfy the snow or ice criteria for that warning.

In sum, it sucks little icy balls.

Or in other words, a messy unwelcome weekend is coming. The best part is that starting next weekend, we will finally transition over into Spring. Well at least I hope! 

I wonder how much accumulation YYZ will record in regards to the pellets. We had a similar set-up in March 2007 where we started off as snow then transitioned over to pellets and freezing rain and eventually rain. However, that was March and this is mid-April. I don't expect any snowfall in the GTA given the thin layer of warmth at 700mb. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 hours ago, snowcaine said:

I have never experienced a storm that was mostly ice pellet. I have no idea what to expect? 

Ask the LAF guys.... 

[London snowsquall]

31 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

GFS still spitting out over 2' of snow for my area, little relieved that the now the heaviest ice is progged for locations further south. GFS spitting out over an 1.5" of ice for Central Mi, probably over done but not out of the realm of possibility. Hope people down there are prepared and have their generators ready. 

 

Not liking the look of that map for this area.   Hopefully it's wrong or way overdone.