IllinoisWedges Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said: better map w/ no sleet included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 6z NAM has us in the mid 20s during the day on Saturday with +PL. The April 2003 ice-storm is a decent analogy but, like Stebo said, it was two weeks earlier than this one. Sort of hard to believe it could be that cold during the daylight hours in mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 11, 2018 Author Share Posted April 11, 2018 SD going to get hammered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 The GFS is slowly shifting the warm front further south every run, 06z is furthest south yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: 6z NAM has us in the mid 20s during the day on Saturday with +PL. The April 2003 ice-storm is a decent analogy but, like Stebo said, it was two weeks earlier than this one. Sort of hard to believe it could be that cold during the daylight hours in mid-April. We had an ice storm in mid April 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, on_wx said: We had an ice storm in mid April 2013 Areas south of hwy 7 were mostly spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 APX on it as usual Quote LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 ...Major storm system still likely... Primary Forecast Concern...Pops and weather type through the period. A deepening and very slow moving area of low pressure continues to move toward the region Friday night and stalls out across the area over the weekend and likely even into early next week. This is due to strong upper level and surface blocking to the north. In addition, the strong surface high is still shown to cycle in a decent amount of cold low level air (especially over the weekend). The strong baroclinic zone (thermal temperature gradient) will likely yield a wide variety of precipitation types over relatively short distances which happens to lie across northern Michigan which makes this forecast extremely challenging. Models continue to advertise a good amount of qpf (upwards of 2 inches). In addition, models continue to trend farther south and colder which could result in more solid and less liquid precipitation and given potential qpf amounts some spots could see a LOT of snow. The ECMWF and now even GFS model soundings for Gaylord (and points north) keep much of this event mainly snow (exception may be Friday) which could easily add up to a foot or more (yelp). Even farther south soundings are on the fringe of mainly all snow or a mix of rain and snow or perhaps even some freezing rain. Potential remains for this system to have major impacts on northern Michigan including but not limited to power outages and serious travel difficulties. Stay tuned as this could become very interesting if not historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 DVN on Sat Nite & Sunday: Quote Friday Night through Sunday Cyclonic circulation around an expansive, nearly stacked upper- low will gradually wrap colder air southward into Iowa and Illinois. Models also have an anomalously strong surface high (1045 mb) situated over the southern Hudson Bay region, which will drive cold and dry air southward. This synoptic setup is conducive for a band of heavy snow to develop northwest of the surface low. The ECMWF is most aggressive with a secondary surface low forming in northern Indiana as the large upper trough takes on a negative tilt. The CMC/GFS are beginning to show a similar scenario but are not as organized with the comma head/TROWAL feature. Our current forecast is conservative on the degree of cold air advection and potential for snow, especially Saturday night into Sunday. However, don`t want to stray too far from the blend until the models come into better agreement on the strength and location of the secondary low. Confidence remains low and changes to the forecast can be expected for the next several days. Stay tuned. Uttech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 3 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: 6z NAM has us in the mid 20s during the day on Saturday with +PL. The April 2003 ice-storm is a decent analogy but, like Stebo said, it was two weeks earlier than this one. Sort of hard to believe it could be that cold during the daylight hours in mid-April. I do have some doubt as well but some ice is definitely possible. That strong HP across Northern Ontario/Quebec will set-up a strong NE wind off the cold Lake across much of the area through-out Sunday and in that time-frame, I could definitely see some ice accretion. Once the NAM 3km and RGEM come into range, we will see if the higher resolution models pick up on the CAD as the global models are currently showing. That H5 look is simply beautiful, why couldn't this storm have happened in January or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: Areas south of hwy 7 were mostly spared. Yeah was localized around Midwest Ontario. We were still without hydro for 16 hours in Waterloo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 GFS has been continuously hinting at a period of wild snowfall rates unloading 1"+ of precip in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 EC extended outlook says potential for serious ice storm possibly 1" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 3 hours ago, Snowstorms said: I do have some doubt as well but some ice is definitely possible. That strong HP across Northern Ontario/Quebec will set-up a strong NE wind off the cold Lake across much of the area through-out Sunday and in that time-frame, I could definitely see some ice accretion. Once the NAM 3km and RGEM come into range, we will see if the higher resolution models pick up on the CAD as the global models are currently showing. That H5 look is simply beautiful, why couldn't this storm have happened in January or something. Trend at 12z was a bit further north with the front. RGEM/GGEM now all liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Trend at 12z was a bit further north with the front. RGEM/GGEM now all liquid. GFS went a tad north with the ice zone as well. A bit surprised that Environment Canada is raising the profile of this event so early by including language for a 'potential ice storm' in the special weather statement. Seen many an ice event on the models fail to pan out, especially since we are over 90 hours from the main event. We all know these events even bust day-of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 22 minutes ago, harrisale said: GFS went a tad north with the ice zone as well. A bit surprised that Environment Canada is raising the profile of this event so early by including language for a 'potential ice storm' in the special weather statement. Seen many an ice event on the models fail to pan out, especially since we are over 90 hours from the main event. We all know these events even bust day-of. You make a good point. Won't be able to blame social media on this one if it busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 I am hoping that the cold front doesn't make it this far south, I definitely don't want a major ice storm this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Stebo said: I am hoping that the cold front doesn't make it this far south, I definitely don't want a major ice storm this late in the season. At least the trees aren't leafed out... then it would really up the damage potential. But I can't imagine it's common to get ice storms with leafed out trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 My snowmobile forums are going ape-5hit over this one. Even those rednecks have their eyes on the models and are salivating over the 40 inches one of them is indicating. A solid 20+ inches looks VERY possible in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 6 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: You make a good point. Won't be able to blame social media on this one if it busts. Are you thinking bust? Not that I want an ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 Pretty wild snow totals the models keep consistently throwing out each run for central MN. I wonder how much of that will end of as sleet or freezing rain though. It is going to be a fun few days here in the the twin cities for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said: Pretty wild snow totals the models keep consistently throwing out each run for central MN. I wonder how much of that will end of as sleet or freezing rain though. It is going to be a fun few days here in the the twin cities for sure. The 18z GFS output was plain wild. Dumps 1.5" of precip (which is 10:1+ snow) And the weenie map for that 6 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 10 hours ago, on_wx said: Yeah was localized around Midwest Ontario. We were still without hydro for 16 hours in Waterloo! It was my worst. It started late evening and went into the middle of the night April 13 IIRC. I had no power for 5 hours where the one that December that devastated Toronto didn't even cause a brief outage but I was lucky because 1 minute north of me there was. This upcoming possible event would be very similar except far more precip is in the mix and would be ongoing during the day. It would fall virtually on the same day 5 years ago as the other ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Are you thinking bust? Not that I want an ice storm... They did mention icing being limited along the 401 in their SWS. Not sure I'd use the word "bust" but if I had to guess I'd say we escape with only nuisance freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 00z NAM looks to be dipping south... to the benefit of some and detriment of others. This cycle has partial RAOB sampling, but 12z will be more complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 Yo Stebo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 12, 2018 Author Share Posted April 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM looks to be dipping south... to the benefit of some and detriment of others. This cycle has partial RAOB sampling, but 12z will be more complete. Also slows it down to have some spots at nearly 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM looks to be dipping south... to the benefit of some and detriment of others. Do you think that this could come far enough south to be a bigger impact on our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 1 minute ago, bl5585 said: Do you think that this could come far enough south to be a bigger impact on our area? Not counting on it but it's looking potentially interesting not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 Looked at some NAM forecast soundings in southern MI and they are absolutely textbook for ice Sat night/Sun morning. Deep warm layer aloft well more than enough for full melting. Question is whether it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yo Stebo Not cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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