April 12th-15th Winter Storm

[snowstormcanuck]

8 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I might be wrong but didn't some of the models a couple days ago have us receiving 5-8" of sleet? The high end is certainly not happening but maybe some of the models caught onto the idea that this might be a big sleet storm instead of ice storm. 

NAM was showing 3" of QPF as sleet.

I'm a bit over 2". We should flip to ZR in the next hour or two so we won't add too much more to it. But certainly, the biggest sleet storm since 2003. More impressive maybe because of the fact it's happening two weeks deeper into April.

[mississaugasnow]

9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

NAM was showing 3" of QPF as sleet.

I'm a bit over 2". We should flip to ZR in the next hour or two so we won't add too much more to it. But certainly, the biggest sleet storm since 2003. More impressive maybe because of the fact it's happening two weeks deeper into April.

How much later in the year do you think an event like this could transpire? I wonder if this rewrites a bit of Torontos winter weather history in the sense that we are witnessing such an impressive winter storm so late into April. EC had the April 3/4th 2003 sleet storm make Ontarios top 10 weather events of 2003, so I imagine one happening nearly two weeks later when averages are rocketing up makes this a remarkable storm. 

[snowstormcanuck]

21 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

How much later in the year do you think an event like this could transpire? I wonder if this rewrites a bit of Torontos winter weather history in the sense that we are witnessing such an impressive winter storm so late into April. EC had the April 3/4th 2003 sleet storm make Ontarios top 10 weather events of 2003, so I imagine one happening nearly two weeks later when averages are rocketing up makes this a remarkable storm. 

31 years old and this is the latest winter storm I've ever encountered. I doubt climo would support something of this magnitude any later in the year.

[snowcaine]

Freezing rain starting to mix in now, my windows are starting to spatter. 

[Roger Smith]

There was a big snowstorm in late April of 1976 with 20 cms in places, that happened after a week of hot weather so the trees were fully out ... lots of power outages with that. I am just looking up the actual dates, think it was 24th-25th. It was on a weekend. 

[TugHillMatt]

Hi, all! I was avoiding this forum the past week as I didn't want to get myself all worked up. Lol.... Well, 2 inches of sleet/snow mix here in West Michigan, with the mixture of sleet and snow continuing. GRR NWS has been insisting since last night that it would be mostly freezing rain, but I have yet to see much of it...THANKFUL for that, as we have had wind gusts to 50 mph this weekend. I had been telling my friends that this was looking like more of a sleet situation. Latest NAM runs are looking good for several inches of snow on the backside here as well. Hoping it happens!

What a crazy week...On Thursday, temps across West Michigan ranged from 30 in Cadillac to 70 in Kalamazoo. Yesterday, it was 50 DEGREES colder here than in my hometown of Lancaster, PA, where it hit 85 yesterday. What a month this has been!

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said:

Epic mid April storm in the Twin Cities. Airport up to 12.9” as of 7am with light to occasionally moderate snow still falling and expected throughout the day. I believe we have officially set the April snowfall record for single storm and monthly total. It looks and feels like deep winter again, and I’m going skiing today which will be the latest in the season I’ve ever gone. I would love to post pictures and videos but cannot seem to find a way around the size limit?

I read that an April 1983 snowstorm was the largest in msp history. Definitely MSP's biggest storm in years. lol and in mid april. I post pics on my facebook and just link them.

[kevlon62]

Nothing quite like daytime accumulations in mid-April!

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

[ILSNOW]

All trees covered with ice here as well some are probably not going to make it. Roads are fine.

[Roger Smith]

Here's a link to that 1976 data (for YYZ)

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=specDate&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2018&selRowPerPage=25&Line=18&searchMethod=contains&Month=4&Day=24&txtStationName=Toronto&timeframe=2&Year=1976

You'll see it was 28 deg on Easter Sunday 18th and then rain to snow mix 24th-25th with eventually 15 cm by morning of 26th. 

This is the latest real winter storm I can recall from my younger days although I measured snow in May around 1966-67 when I was doing my own weather station (about an inch or two, nothing that stuck on roads). I think there was 8 cm of snow on May 1, 1875 in the Toronto city records. 

Just looking at YXU, this 1976 storm there gave 56 mm of rain and just 4 cm of snow over the same time frame. 

At Peterborough where I was during the storm, the reports say 8 to 10 cm snow at two different locations. I think it was heavier on the Oak Ridges moraine than either side. But not quite the same type of low, this one was more of a rain to sleet to snow transition with steadily falling temps. It was -2 C by the Monday morning at the end of the snowfall. 

[mississaugasnow]

getting slightly off topic, but this winter will be remembered for the unusually late winter storms that really push the envelop on climo. Two weeks ago, the upper south from Kentucky to DC and up along the coast saw a decent 1-3" of snow and some areas pushed 6"+ which is rare for early April. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I read that an April 1983 snowstorm was the largest in msp history. Definitely MSP's biggest storm in years. lol and in mid april. I post pics on my facebook and just link them.

I think Halloween 1991 is the largest single storm but the April record belongs to 1983 until perhaps today. Yeah this is our biggest storm in quite awhile and we received 12.5” on 1/22. Pushing 80” this year. 

[michsnowfreak]

Well it seems those preparing for a terrible ice storm were sleeted out. On the other hand here, I was expecting a light glaze of ice before turning to rain and instead got an ice storm. The heaviest icing and power outages seem to be right over the heart of metro Detroit. I didnt lose power or any tree branches thankfully, but many did. Saw lots of pics of trees down.

 

Here are the pics I took

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said:

I think Halloween 1991 is the largest single storm but the April record belongs to 1983 until perhaps today. Yeah this is our biggest storm in quite awhile and we received 12.5” on 1/22. Pushing 80” this year. 

oops i meant april

[cyclone77]

Finished with 0.69" of rain since Friday evening.  Still waiting on the first flakes.

[Powerball]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Well it seems those preparing for a terrible ice storm were sleeted out. On the other hand here, I was expecting a light glaze of ice before turning to rain and instead got an ice storm. The heaviest icing and power outages seem to be right over the heart of metro Detroit. I didnt lose power or any tree branches thankfully, but many did. Saw lots of pics of trees down.

 

Here are the pics I took

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like the 8 mile road corridor got about 1/4" of ice, while areas north of that (as you say) got more sleet than ice.

Pretty big fail on DTX's part. Wayne / Washtenaw should have had warnings.

[ams30721us]

28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Finished with 0.69" of rain since Friday evening.  Still waiting on the first flakes.

After a long wait watching the edge of that band basically stall just to our west, it's finally moving in, and right on cue, we have switched from drizzle to light snow. Coming down pretty good and steady too. Decent size flakes. Temps are hovering above freezing at the start.

[harrisale]

ZR has been a total bust here so far save for about one hour at the start of the event. Even with very warm 850 temperatures it’s actually been snowing (albeit pixie dust) here for the last hour or so with some IP mixed in.

Don’t want to speak too soon but I feel as though Environment Canada jumped the gun a little bit with the ‘potentially historic ice storm’ wording. Should have waited until the event was underway.

 

[smoof]

Approaching 1.5" total sleet here now. Approx 1/20th of an inch of ZR (so much for the models saying 0.5" - 1.0" ZR lol).

[snowstormcanuck]

14 minutes ago, harrisale said:

ZR has been a total bust here so far save for about one hour at the start of the event. Even with very warm 850 temperatures it’s actually been snowing (albeit pixie dust) here for the last hour or so with some IP mixed in.

Don’t want to speak too soon but I feel as though Environment Canada jumped the gun a little bit with the ‘potentially historic ice storm’ wording. Should have waited until the event was underway.

 

Yeah, I don't get it. There was a bit of ZR mixing in a few hours ago but now it's back to pure sleet.

Actually getting sleet drifts with the wind were it's 4-6" deep.

At this point I figure we'll got from PL to RA without any (or minimal) ZR transition.

[Luftfeuchtigkeit]

~2" snow/sleet total in Madison. Roads were iced over when I was out today, even major roads which was very impressive for mid April. 

[harrisale]

1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Yeah, I don't get it. There was a bit of ZR mixing in a few hours ago but now it's back to pure sleet.

Actually getting sleet drifts with the wind were it's 4-6" deep.

At this point I figure we'll got from PL to RA without any (or minimal) ZR transition.

NOAA winter probabilistic guidance had us in the 95% likelihood zone for >.25” of ice as of Friday night. I guess this storm turned out to be the odd 5%? Perhaps the arctic high was much stronger than modelled. 

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, ams30721us said:

After a long wait watching the edge of that band basically stall just to our west, it's finally moving in, and right on cue, we have switched from drizzle to light snow. Coming down pretty good and steady too. Decent size flakes. Temps are hovering above freezing at the start.

Yeah it's snowing here now as well.  Not snowing hard enough to stick to anything, but it looks wintry out there.

[Snowstorms]

13 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Yeah, I don't get it. There was a bit of ZR mixing in a few hours ago but now it's back to pure sleet.

Actually getting sleet drifts with the wind were it's 4-6" deep.

At this point I figure we'll got from PL to RA without any (or minimal) ZR transition.

Kind of perplexing indeed. I do expect a brief period of ZR within the next few hours before it completely transitions over to rain in the evening. The warmth is just pushing north of Lake Erie right now and YYZ will likely be above freezing by the late afternoon - early evening. The winds will wrap around the LP tomorrow leading to strong NW winds and snow showers through tomorrow evening. 

I'll personally take the sleet over freezing rain. The 2013 ice storm was enough ZR for me. On the bright side YYZ is now at 41.5" 

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, Nickysixes said:

Epic storm! 16" snow yesterday now this morning, heavy sleet @ 24F:)

Nice Nicky

[Snowstorms]

17 minutes ago, harrisale said:

NOAA winter probabilistic guidance had us in the 95% likelihood zone for >.25” of ice as of Friday night. I guess this storm turned out to be the odd 5%? Perhaps the arctic high was much stronger than modelled. 

Both sleet and freezing rain occur under the same process. In this storm, I suspect the layer of freezing air was much thicker and lasted longer than modeled thus leading to more sleet than freezing rain? Freezing rain usually occurs at thinner layers. Now I'm just assuming thats what likely occurred. 

[Jim Marusak]

call this a bit of an end of storm commentary out here in Minnesota, and watching what's going on back in the t-dot. And I have to admit, the model snowfall came a lot closer to reality than I was originally thinking, but the impact I was thinking about for around here did verify (11" near my apt complex in the north end of St Paul). But as for the sleet I saw not only here, but am seeing further east, I have to admit, a couple of days before the event, I was looking at some model soundings out here, and they were all screaming sleet/ice pellets to me, not freezing rain, even though most of the TV mets were saying a freezing rain was a big possibility in the transition.

and as for you guys in Toronto, I do remember a bit about that 2003 sleet storm. I drove into work that morning on Birchmount from Sheppard heading to Markham with several inches of sleet. It actually was not that bad to drive on that sleet compared to snow, if for no other reason than at least the sleet was consistent. But that high amount of sleet was a bit of surprise, since I think the day before the forecast was more being steered to freezing rain as well.

[Hoosier]

Some 15-21" reports out of the GRB cwa and I imagine elsewhere too.  

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Some 15-21" reports out of the GRB cwa and I imagine elsewhere too.  

With (according to the radar) several more inches to come. 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Both sleet and freezing rain occur under the same process. In this storm, I suspect the layer of freezing air was much thicker and lasted longer than modeled thus leading to more sleet than freezing rain? Freezing rain usually occurs at thinner layers. Now I'm just assuming thats what likely occurred. 

Refreeze layer may have been colder than progged.  That can happen on a larger scale or more localized during heavy precip.  -4C or colder anywhere in that refreeze layer really increases the odds of sleet.