MNstorms Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 Could be something big for late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 I just read an article about how the PW values in several parts of California and Nevada were at all-time record high levels over the weekend, in some cases beating the old record by a solid .1-.2, for any ‘winter’ month. Are the models over doing precipitation because of this (I saw 30”+ of snow in northern Michigan from both models above) or does that amount of moisture usually make it trans-continental without issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 This one doesn't look to be in a hurry to move east. Looks pretty big up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 10, 2018 Author Share Posted April 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, RobertSul said: Are the models over doing precipitation because of this (I saw 30”+ of snow in northern Michigan from both models above) or does that amount of moisture usually make it trans-continental without issues? The last one (Euro) is snow depth and there's still going to be snow on the ground then so ignore the Michigan area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 April special in Chicago. Severe to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 Can't wait for the cold front behind this system to return our area to the miserable 40s and breezy that we've had for over a month. Will there ever be an appreciable severe event this season? Or are we gonna have to wait for June like 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 12z ECMWF actually came very close to that GGEM solution from a few runs back. Secondary system develops further east, with a swath of 3ft of snow across portions of IA to WI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: LMAO 27"..... probably not all snow either for my area though but would take that over the ice any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 There is a large zone of ice accumulations almost to Ohio as well in Michigan.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: There is a large zone of ice accumulations almost to Ohio as well in Michigan.... Yeah, Euro has been advertising significant ice but I think this is the farthest south it has gotten the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, Euro has been advertising significant ice but I think this is the farthest south it has gotten the ice. Yeah it has been 4 runs in a row of showing significant ice too. So there is a bit of consistency there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah it has been 4 runs in a row of showing significant ice too. So there is a bit of consistency there. Other than the calendar saying mid April, it is a pretty classic synoptic setup for ice with that strong high to the north. Obviously it's going to be more difficult to impact the paved surfaces at this time of year so the bigger concern would be on elevated objects, but still, will be interesting to see if a band of sig ice occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 All models indicating an early occlusion which might inhibit low level warming further east, as the best WAA gets shunted with the triple point. Too bad this isn't Jan or Feb or it could have been a major ZR threat. EURO indicating front-end snow as far south as here, which is probably too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 3 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Can't wait for the cold front behind this system to return our area to the miserable 40s and breezy that we've had for over a month. Will there ever be an appreciable severe event this season? Or are we gonna have to wait for June like 2014. I'll be gone for a week in Hawaii in mid May, so you can count on something major in the MW around that time lol. Wow @ this morning's Euro. Daddylonglegs = buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: All models indicating an early occlusion which might inhibit low level warming further east, as the best WAA gets shunted with the triple point. Too bad this isn't Jan or Feb or it could have been a major ZR threat. EURO indicating front-end snow as far south as here, which is probably too aggressive. It's looking like Saturday and Sunday could get ugly around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: It's looking like Saturday and Sunday could get ugly around here. Think the bulk of this sets up well to our N/E. Could get a bit of glazing late Saturday night but doubt it's an ice-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 7 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: oh, hell yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Jonger said: oh, hell yea. Good for Mid Winter, mid-April not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 Quite a sleet/freezing rain transition zone on the 12z Euro verbatim. Don't have soundings but classic cold air drainage at/just above the surface. By Sunday morning, the area near I-80 in IL/IN has 850 mb temps several degrees above 0C with 925 mb temps a few degrees below 0C. Harder to find info on past ice/sleet storms but off the top of my head, I can't remember something as late in the season and as far south as what the 12z Euro had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 Locally this is reminding me of April 3rd 2003 when a few days before the forecast was for 70s only to end up with an extended ZR and sleet event. Seeing the latest gfs shift the ice threat further south towards a euro solution makes me only think of that more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 Looks like a band of showers and embedded thunder Friday night, dry slot Sat, and flurries Sun for most of the DVN cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 Quite a sleet/freezing rain transition zone on the 12z Euro verbatim. Don't have soundings but classic cold air drainage at/just above the surface. By Sunday morning, the area near I-80 in IL/IN has 850 mb temps several degrees above 0C with 925 mb temps a few degrees below 0C. Harder to find info on past ice/sleet storms but off the top of my head, I can't remember something as late in the season and as far south as what the 12z Euro had. Check April 9-11th 1995.Only sig April ice event in the CWA in recent times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Check April 9-11th 1995. Only sig April ice event in the CWA in recent times. . I thought of that one but didn't mention it since it was technically a few days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 The only April ice event I can think of is from 03 and that was in the first few days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 00z Euro is another big run. The snow band after redevelopment shifted east of 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro is another big run. The snow band after redevelopment shifted east of 12z though. DVN/northewest IL and all of Wisconsin buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 Welcome to Mid-April! How are the flowers looking!? Uhmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 11, 2018 Author Share Posted April 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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