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April 5-7 One-Two Punch Snow Systems

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted
Still big run to run differences between each HRRR run, and we're about 1-2hrs from the event.  
Such a tough forecast with this. Put me in the camp of thinking RAP/HRRR temps during modeled mod/heavy precip are staying too warm with the well mixed boundary layer but also can't 100% discount it with southerly flow and warm advection. Kept accums minimal at best during the day because of uncertainty with how it all plays out, with most of the minor accums during the evening. FWIW, WPC internal collab graphic went with a swath of 2-4" in southern half of Chicago metro into NW IN and lower MI.

The large run to run changes in the HRRR are not surprising because of the changes in exact placement of fgen banding and maintenance/intensity/longetivity run to run that dictate the precip band placement.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1151 AM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018

.UPDATE...
1151 AM CDT

The main forecast concern continues to center on the increasing
potential for a band of moderate to briefly heavy snow across
portions of the area this afternoon and evening.

This band of snow has already set up from just north of DVN
southeastward towards PNT. DVN and MLI reported visibilities under
a mile with this band of snow as it moved through, so these
conditions are likely to accompany this band of snow as it
gradually shifts to the east into this afternoon.

HiRes Guidance continues to indicate that this band of snow will
continue to intensify later this afternoon and evening as the left
exit region of a 130+ kt northwesterly upper jet noses into the
area atop a strong band of lower-level frontogenesis. This in
combination with reduced static stability off the surface should
result in at least periods of moderate snow, with periods of
heavier snow reducing the visibilities under a mile. While
questions remain as to how much snow will accumulate on area
roads, it does appear that 1 to 2 inches of snow (isolated amounts
up to 3 also possible) will be a good bet on grassy areas across
much of northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. This may
result in some minor slushy accumulations on elevated road
surfaces. While we do not plan to issue an advisory for this
event, we have issued an SPS to highlight the event.

The snow should wind down from west to east later this evening.

KJB
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Stebo

Stebo

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31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yesterday's tigers game in Detroit was ppd due to snow squalls and wind. Today they are playing in chicago...in snow. 

 

Some areas of southern MI could see several inches overnight. Looking forward to it as perhaps winter 2017-18's finale.

I hope so, enough with this cold. I want something higher than 50.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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That band this morning absolutely ripped at work.  Picked up a good half inch in about 30-40 minutes.  It snowed so hard it was even sticking on paved areas for a short while.  About an hour after the snow ended it had completely melted, and looked like nothing ever happened lol.  Ended up warming up into the mid 40s, and with some mixed sun it actually felt nicer than that.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

It's been snowing here since about 5 PM EDT, but not sticking. Looks nice though. My perception is that there has been an overabundance of these thread the needle type events this winter. It seems like we've had very few spread the wealth systems. Not even any with moderate amounts like what is being predicted for tomorrow night. It could be that my mind is playing tricks with me though due to the major suckage experienced in this area this year.

EDIT: Sunday night

 

snow.gif

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted

^ Yep, the 18Z GFS tries to spread it (pun intended;)).  I feel ya.  Even though I've had 10 inches of snow total from 2 systems in the last couple weeks, it's not the same when it's gone 24 hours later.  Convenient, yeah no shoveling, but its not the same as if it came 2 or 3 months ago.  If I was grading winter by snow amounts alone, these early spring snows would be graded on a curve, a downward curve. They just aren't enough to make up for the 3 months of suffering prior.  The misery continues.

Edit:  Yes I know the graphic goes to the 11th.  May as well merge the threads the way these models are dancing lol

sn10_acc.us_mw (1).png

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


It’s mostly rain though.

HRRR gonna chalk up a W, and LOT an L.


.

The HRRR temp profiles were way too warm this afternoon in the precip areas, so I don't agree in that regard.  I am curious to see what precip type will be when it gets here shortly.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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The HRRR temp profiles were way too warm this afternoon in the precip areas, so I don't agree in that regard.  I am curious to see what precip type will be when it gets here shortly.

Temp wise yea, it was a bit warm. 40’s only made it to around I-80, instead of into WI.

I’m talking more precip type though.


.
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