yoda Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: If the GFS comes north any, you can cancel the party in DC. We're walking a tight rope as it is. Really? 06z GFS was fine and gave us room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Really? 06z GFS was fine and gave us room What we gotta see is if the 12z continues to juice up the earlier part of the storm. 12z Sat has been trending better for an earlier onset of heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 24 minutes ago, yoda said: Really? 06z GFS was fine and gave us room It gave us like 20 miles of room. 20 miles for 3 days of trends. Come on, you've heard this song before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I remember what happened last time the euro showed 20” for my area. I’m not gonna get caught up in this one! However, I can’t wait to see the next euro snow map. I’m giddy with excitement already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: I remember what happened last time the euro showed 20” for my area. I’m not gonna get caught up in this one! However, I can’t wait to see the next euro snow map. I’m giddy with excitement already. The euro hasn't been euro-like lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It gave us like 20 miles of room. 20 miles for 3 days of trends. Come on, you've heard this song before. Lets try more like 80-100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: It gave us like 20 miles of room. 20 miles for 3 days of trends. Come on, you've heard this song before. Euro started as a NC crush job so that chance of a north is real. How far it can go is the question. We will find out soon enough. Keeping expectations low until Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 snow maps are dumb at this point. we've been through that dog and pony show before, so why repeat that? we need to look at the pattern. i would think there's limits to how far north this storm could go, but looking at the setup, i wouldn't be surprised if it's more of a rain to snow variety, given the orientation of the high pressing in from the northwest and not really having a strong one anchored over the north/northeast. we need that cold air to filter in fast enough so that we're not starting out during the day as rain. that's my take at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Lets try more like 100 miles If we have 4-6 in the ground region wide by Sunday night that would be incredible. We would need 1"+/hr rates for a decent amount of time to pull that off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Icon looks like a good hit with slower onset though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 icon looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Icon stays the global course with a slower more consolidated second wave. Looks close to last run. The 2 wave idea could still work btw but I'm not in favor of adding complexity to an April setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Icon stays the global course with a slower more consolidated second wave. Looks close to last run. The 2 wave idea could still work btw but I'm not in favor of adding complexity to an April setup. Add that to the list of statements we don't often make about snow in April haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 GFS look similar as well vs it's 6z and 0z runs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS look similar as well vs it's 6z and 0z runs so far Looks more amped at 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 It shifted north by about 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Definitely a north shift. I'm still good where I'm at but DC gets some frozen instead of snow on first frame of the thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Looks like a great hit to me after 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 looks good, but iffy to start. it looks like a front. we need that cold air to come in fast. surface temps overnight friday are in the mid 40s, but seem to crash once the heavier precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS look similar as well vs it's 6z and 0z runs so far Little more tilt out in front. At face value it's pretty much a textbook climo track....for a walk the line midwinter event...haha. Good enough for me. I'm not jumping on the widespread warning event so if the 12z just nailed it then it's still historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 12z ICON is a direct hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Little more tilt out in front. At face value it's pretty much a textbook climo track....for a walk the line midwinter event...haha. Good enough for me. I'm not jumping on the widespread warning event so if the 12z just nailed it then it's still historic. It did shift north, but we had some cushion from 12z. We're about out of cushion tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 The biggest piece that I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around are panels like this...at 2pm on April 7th...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 its a little north initially but it’s still a great run. 78 is money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 its a little north initially but it’s still a great run. 78 is money Money for flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: The biggest piece that I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around are panels like this...at 2pm on April 7th...lol the temps drop 15-20 degrees in 6 hrs per the gfs. what i like is that this is clearly an end as snow system even if there's a tightrope. sunday morning could look pretty cool outside if things verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It did shift north, but we had some cushion from 12z. We're about out of cushion tho. eh, there's still plenty of cushion on this sounding...look at the lower and mids...WUT?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: its a little north initially but it’s still a great run. 78 is money Money for flurries? Kuchera gives you 7-8"... come on now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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