Chris78 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs for Mon...has snow on snow Dang. I'l be just finishing up shoveling from the Saturday HECS...lol. In all seriousness though, man the Euro was crazy. I'm not sure what happened to the Euro but it isn't what it used to be after the upgrade a few years ago. For the past Monday event it gave me 4" several runs in a row leading up to the event and all I got was some mangled flakes at the tail end. Even for the March storm it really over did the snow in a lot of area's. Don't get me wrong a lot of the other models were wrong also but before the upgrade inside 48 hours it was deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 29 minutes ago, mappy said: i'll just, uh, leave this here Sounds like mappy is telling people they're dumb for tracking. GIT 'ER!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Anybody with some 6z GEFS stuff? Didn’t see it posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Maybe we just figure out the insane Euro bias and turn it into a usable model again. Maybe if you divde all Euro Kuchera accumulations by about four or so, it gives you an accurate accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On another note, the NWS updated their winter storm threat graphic to “slight” but their overnight discussion is super vague and basically just says rain/snow mix with all snow confined to the far northwest. I get being cautious but would have been nice to read a little more technical detail there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 we're still 3+ days away. Even in winter they'd be vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Anybody with some 6z GEFS stuff? Didn’t see it posted i think it held serve. certainly didn't come north much, if any. 0.5"+ precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, mattie g said: Sounds like mappy is telling people they're dumb for tracking. GIT 'ER!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 some of the models are hinting at a frontal passage type setup with a transition to rain/snow, so i guess that's something to look out for. i'm assuming the front slides through and then a low rides along it after a lull, but some models like the cmc make it look like a transition ala jan '11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Jandurin said: He made the thread just in time to get "Euro'd" I make forecasts YOU can trust- The PrinceFrederickWx Gaurantee™ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 14 hours ago, Jandurin said: It's on my birthday Mine too. I'm not buying it just yet though, there's definitely a little too much of a north trend going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Dang. I'l be just finishing up shoveling from the Saturday HECS...lol. In all seriousness though, man the Euro was crazy. I'm not sure what happened to the Euro but it isn't what it used to be after the upgrade a few years ago. For the past Monday event it gave me 4" several runs in a row leading up to the event and all I got was some mangled flakes at the tail end. Even for the March storm it really over did the snow in a lot of area's. Don't get me wrong a lot of the other models were wrong also but before the upgrade inside 48 hours it was deadly. I think the Euro was hacked by the CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 58 minutes ago, 87storms said: i think it held serve. certainly didn't come north much, if any. 0.5"+ precip 0.75+" DC south on 24 hr precip map at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, mfastx said: Mine too. I'm not buying it just yet though, there's definitely a little too much of a north trend going on. Thankfully, we've held fairly steady the last few cycles. Definitely agree with others that a last second north trend seems inevitable. Something else thats been nice to see is a good swath of jackpots. We have a fair amount of room to work with on both the EURO and GFS, and their ensemble means. Hope that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 RE: the NWS not taking this seriously yet: the SREF is pretty far north of other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 There is a serious high pressure pressing into the region Saturday morning. It could be enough to keep the storm from trending much farther north. I think 3-6 inches on grassy surfaces is a reasonable call for now. Obviously elevation will help the favored locations. But its hard to ignore the guidance up to this point. If the guidance changes then so be it. Its weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 All NAM disclaimers aside, 12z 12k will be North of 6z. Cold not pressing as much through 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Makes sense the SREF is so far north because the NAM has been pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Makes sense the SREF is so far north because the NAM has been pretty far north. Is it a signal or are they out to lunch. 12z GFS and 12z Euro are important runs. If they move toward the NAM it could be the beginning of the end. I think they will hold serve. I will wait until tomorrow before overanalyzing the NAM and SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Well, for those wanting to snow...lets hope the NAM is just being the NAM. Still rain at 15z saturday for the cities. 6z had the 850 0C line south of EZF at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Is it a signal or are they out to lunch. 12z GFS and 12z Euro are important runs. If they move toward the NAM it could be the beginning of the end. I think they will hold serve. I will wait until tomorrow before overanalyzing the NAM and SREF. SREF's are awful and never should be used...lol half the members are always so overamped making them useless for snow forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Yeah the NAM is a heavy dose of rain and then snow. Obviously not what we wanna see in April. The NAM shows the one way how we can fail. But hopefully it’s just overamping things to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Somehow on this run southern VA and Central PA jackpot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Interesting. Nam develops a trailing low to the south and brings that up after the first runs to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Interesting. Nam develops a trailing low to the south and brings that up after the first runs to our north. NAM proposing sort of a double wave jip job for the DC area lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Interesting. Nam develops a trailing low to the south and brings that up after the first runs to our north. I personally don't find it interesting at all. lol. Once the real guidance comes out we can return to our regularly scheduled program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I personally don't find it interesting at all. lol. Once the real guidance comes out we can return to our regularly scheduled program. lol. Yeah, does kind of screw those around DC, south and east, with this evolution. It's the NAM at range so i'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 The nam is splitting the energy with a front runner wave which is why the front isn't pressing as fast as other guidance. Then it clips our area with wave 2 anyways. But it's on it's own with that progression so unless the globals move that way I'm not wasting time analyzing the high res regionals until their inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I am taking some comfort in the fact that the GFS and Euro have been somewhat steady and the NAM is looking funky. It feels like old times lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 If the GFS comes north any, you can cancel the party in DC. We're walking a tight rope as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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