NorthArlington101 Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 And the NAM puts this down overnight. Gives us a shot at accumulating since rates certainly aren’t fantastic. Ground would be a little more chilled too... hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Snows in DC for ~6 hrs as per 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: that's actually better than i thought it would be. is that all snow? Should be I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Flipping back and forth between the last two runs at hour 33 actually shows the precip max still going south. Just seems a separate area of decent precip develops to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: And the NAM puts this down overnight. Gives us a shot at accumulating since rates certainly aren’t fantastic. Ground would be a little more chilled too... hmmmm Too bad we aren't even getting cold rain from the front. That could cool the ground, no? That's what I liked about the March 20-22 storm. Even though the first wave only dropped a quarter of an inch of snow, it cooled the ground so ground temps weren't an issue for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Congrats SE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Too bad we aren't even getting cold rain from the front. That could cool the ground, no? That's what I liked about the March 20-22 storm. Even though the first wave only dropped a quarter of an inch of snow, it cooled the ground so ground temps weren't an issue for wave 2 Unless it really soaks in there and it's super close to 32 degrees, rain would just increase the heat transfer coefficient at the snow/soil interface and make things worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 3k looks fringe-y as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 3k worse, 12k better from the 18z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Flipping back and forth between the last two runs at hour 33 actually shows the precip max still going south. Just seems a separate area of decent precip develops to the north. But most of that qpf that reduced was from the first frontal wave that continues to become almost nothing. It was rain anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 3k worse, 12k better from the 18z suite yea, though looks more promising than 12z. still a couple runs to continue a slight trend. i can't imagine this can come much further nw, but don't need much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 12z RGEM ensemble cut back on qpf totals a bit and lost the one rogue member, but other than that the precip distribution is very similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Hoping for maybe an inch but after this I need the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Didn’t see much on GFS to be optimistic about. Just can’t pull it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: Congrats SE MD Let's be honest, 4" in Salisbury in April is a HECS total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 the snow hole on the gfs is legendary. lotta nothin' here. i think i've moved on. gonna need a significant north shift at this point to get anything other than scraps. it's time for thunderstorm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Fozz said: Let's be honest, 4" in Salisbury in April is a HECS total. I'd like to thank the academy, my manager, and Swedish nanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Good. Didn’t want it anyways. Bring on spring and warmer temps. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Good. Didn’t want it anyways. Bring on spring and warmer temps. . Are the D.C. People still worried about the north trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 3 hours ago, ATreglown said: The reports out of RIC are not accurate at all. People send in reports from all around the airport area and RIC totals on the norm below actual snow accumulation. It's very annoying. Yup the snow total controversies are well known, and we were impressed by the efforts by those who posted on EasternWX and here to get storm totals revised by AKQ. IIRC, they managed to convince AKQ to revise 1/30/10 upward, but AKQ wouldn’t budge on 1/23/16. For DC, it’s the same complaint about DCA all the time. But we’re stuck with both sites being the official one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Are the D.C. People still worried about the north trend? Tonight's 00Z runs are the biggest of the Winter... errr... Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Tonight's 00Z runs are the biggest of the Winter... errr... Spring. It’s over isn’t it. I mean for everyone north of EZF. Our hope is squarely on a system to pull north with a positively tilted trough. Can’t see how that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 You guys are fighting the good fightGood to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: You guys are fighting the good fight Good to see To the end. It’s all we know. But we are losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 It's kind of to hear lawn mowers going on this 70 degree evening and seeing the Azalea blooms popping out as I am watching models showing it snowing in my back yard and upper 20's for tomorrow night. Don't think it is going to be a pretty spring around here. My blackberry and blueberry bushes just started blooming too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: To the end. It’s all we know. But we are losing. Even when its 57-3 in the fourth quarter, you never give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Even when its 57-3 in the fourth quarter, you never give up. Inspiring. Let’s do it. See some snow flying, maybe, and shut er down for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 6, 2018 Author Share Posted April 6, 2018 Updated thread title to April 7-8 since it seems the best chance is now late Saturday into early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 NAM 12k is no bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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