April 7-8 snow event

[aldie 22]

It's 15 degrees this morning 

[LP08]

He 36 on the nam is awfully close...Nighttime too

[87storms]

yep, 36 looks good and then it gets pulled ots.  not sure why that is unless there's just too much NS interference.  congrats richmond.

[Fozz]

28 minutes ago, hstorm said:

One more late season storm was May 9, 1977.  Boston received 0.5", Providence received 7", and there was a trace down to Southern New Jersey.

7" in Providence is incredible. I think Worcester received over a foot of snow. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, 87storms said:

yep, 36 looks good and then it gets pulled ots.  not sure why that is unless there's just too much NS interference.  congrats richmond.

12K looks like every other event...its uncanny how no matter the month, scenario, moon phase, tidal flow, temp, we manage to avoid snow. 

[LP08]

Looks like it follows the boundary that is pushing through during the day.  Perhaps than can get hung up a bit to allow it to come North some before out to sea.

[87storms]

Just now, BristowWx said:

12K looks like every other event...its uncanny how no matter the month, scenario, moon phase, tidal flow, temp, we manage to avoid snow. 

it is.  similar pattern from start to finish.  trough is just too far east.  maybe we can still get fringed saturday from wave 2.

[cae]

Noticeable shift south on the 00z RGEM ensemble mean.  This is from 06z Saturday to 06z Sunday, so the start and end of the storm is probably cut off on some members.

DC is in the 5 mm contour, but only about 30% of members give DC that much snow.

I was curious about why the snow mean map looked unusually good for northern areas given how few members give those areas more than 5 mm qpf as snow.  So I looked through the individual members.  Most look like some variation of the mean qpf map, some give us almost nothing, and then there's this one.  The one that has been spending way too much time hanging out with those SREF kids down the street.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

That April 1983 event really stands out. I don't think most of the major northeast cities have ever had a snowfall that late in the season.

EDIT: Actually looks like NYC did, in the 1870s and 1880s, but that's ancient history compared to 1983. 

Worcester, Boston, among some locations in New England actually had accumulating snow on May 9, 1977. Some snow fell in New York City, but it did not accumulate.

[87storms]

3k might have even been a tad south and it doesn't even look like we get much from wave 1 either lol.  

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

3k might have even been a tad south and it doesn't even look like we get much from wave 1 either lol.  

just too positive tilted so no amp and weak precip.  Temps look ok....that is an lol statement for April 7th but we can't get precip.  I shall never forget this 17-18 winter/spring season for as long as I walk the earth.  

[osfan24]

15 minutes ago, 87storms said:

3k might have even been a tad south and it doesn't even look like we get much from wave 1 either lol.  

Yeah it looked like a significant step back from its previous run.

[Scraff]

20 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah it looked like a significant step back from its previous run.

I’m canceling spring! Worst ever. 

[Fozz]

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Worcester, Boston, among some locations in New England actually had accumulating snow on May 9, 1977. Some snow fell in New York City, but it did not accumulate.

I should've specified DC-NYC. Of course New England does a lot better for the most part. 

[psuhoffman]

[NorthArlington101]

GFS is close enough Saturday night to keep me interested. Add the whole “NW edge is always underdone” bias and it looks even better.

[cae]

I like how the GFS has swung completely around from snowing east of the cities on Saturday night to snowing west of the cities on Saturday night, without ever showing it actually snowing in the cities.  Neat trick.

The ICON has done something similar.  I'm curious to see where this trend goes though.  I still think DC is in the game for some possible accumulations.  One benefit of the shift is that most of the snow would now be falling at night.

 

[CAPE]

Looks like eastern VA and the immediate coast of MD and DE will have the best shot at seeing some snow accumulate. Could see some decent rates plus it occurs mostly overnight.

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is close enough Saturday night to keep me interested. Add the whole “NW edge is always underdone” bias and it looks even better.

I would be more interested if I were you but up here it would take a pretty big error. One problem with expecting that much north shift is this has become a different beast. When it was a west to east wave on the boundary I expected a north trend because models usually place that boundary too far south. It's a typical error. But now that wave became a non event and we're dealing with a wave amplifying in the southeast fairly late. That's more a NW trend not a north. And it's needing a more amplified trend. Those aren't as sure a bet.  Add in that we've had several of these and they all ended up just a monumental tease and snow for the coast and I'm pretty sure this goes down the same way. But I'm watching it. And you definitely should. It's close. But I've pretty much given up here. 

[cae]

One more trend gif.  This is the GFS again, at 2am on Sunday morning.

Again the ICON has shown something similar, but doesn't bring the precip as far NW (I think the GFS gets the snow farthest NW of any of the 12z models so far.)  This is still 42 hours out, so there's room for some shifting (for better or for worse).  But it's not a bad look for April 8th.

 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would be more interested if I were you but up here it would take a pretty big error. One problem with expecting that much north shift is this has become a different beast. When it was a west to east wave on the boundary I expected a north trend because models usually place that boundary too far south. It's a typical error. But now that wave became a non event and we're dealing with a wave amplifying in the southeast fairly late. That's more a NW trend not a north. And it's needing a more amplified trend. Those aren't as sure a bet.  Add in that we've had several of these and they all ended up just a monumental tease and snow for the coast and I'm pretty sure this goes down the same way. But I'm watching it. And you definitely should. It's close. But I've pretty much given up here. 

 Thanks for all you contribute to the board you said something last night that I think resonated with everybody ... you said I’m tired ... when you said that I thought to myself I think I’m tired too...I think we’re all tired.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, cae said:

One more trend gif.  This is the GFS again, at 2am on Sunday morning.

Again the ICON has shown something similar, but doesn't bring the precip as far NW (I think the GFS gets the snow farthest NW of any of the 12z models so far.)  This is still 42 hours out, so there's room for some shifting (for better or for worse).  But it's not a bad look for April 8th.

 

Once again, NWVA is in the typical location.  This nightmare winter just won't die.  Please, God, don[t allow a daytime temp below 50F next winter.  Please, let it torch from end-to-end.

[NorthArlington101]

I would be more interested if I were you but up here it would take a pretty big error. One problem with expecting that much north shift is this has become a different beast. When it was a west to east wave on the boundary I expected a north trend because models usually place that boundary too far south. It's a typical error. But now that wave became a non event and we're dealing with a wave amplifying in the southeast fairly late. That's more a NW trend not a north. And it's needing a more amplified trend. Those aren't as sure a bet.  Add in that we've had several of these and they all ended up just a monumental tease and snow for the coast and I'm pretty sure this goes down the same way. But I'm watching it. And you definitely should. It's close. But I've pretty much given up here. 

Thanks. I was going to ask why the typical north trend wasn’t happening. Shame this evolved into a totally different kind of storm.

[McQuackleton]

See you all next Winter. 

 

 

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

See you all next Winter. 

 

 

If we were to run with that... DCA has a 40% chance of 2" of snow or more and a 55% chance of 1" of snow or more

 

[Roger Smith]

Organized circulation already evident near sw OK / TX border, all signs pointing to a track into GA/SC and out to sea near ILM.

Arctic front will wrap around this Saturday night reaching se VA into central NC.

Best snow threat is 5 to 8 inch band from central Delmarva across se MD towards RIC and into n/c NC. 

Leaves open a range of outcomes for I-95 strip from 0.5" to 3.0" depending on exact snowfall axis. 

You're in the game but RIC should do best and I think the map posted above needs extra snow southeast of DC, would say 4" La Plata. 

[yoda]

12z UKIE total precip through 48 hrs is around 0.3 at DCA... 0.5 to 0.6 at EZF... meteogram (on meteocentre) shows that the precip would be snow.  The image below is a blown up and cropped image of what the total QPF at hr 48 from the 12z UKMET looks like from the weathermodels website...

 

[NorthArlington101]

12z UKIE total precip through 48 hrs is around 0.3 at DCA... 0.5 to 0.6 at EZF... meteogram shows that the precip would be snow

 

Is that precip mostly at night?

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Is that precip mostly at night?

 

No -- 12z SAT to 00z SUN (hr 24 to 36 is when the QPF falls... 24 to 30 (or 12z to 18z) is just over 0.10" or so and 30-36 (or 18z to 00z) is ~0.20" or so of QPF)

[PhineasC]

LOL RIC beats DCA in April. Just end this terrible nightmare winter already.