April 7-8 snow event

[Cobalt]

We can hug this..

 

[osfan24]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm disappointed in this winter like everyone else. It kinda sucked the way it underperformed potential and how everyone around us got more so I do get that. But why do people keep saying that like it didn't snow this year?  "Most" in here made it close to median snowfall this year.  This wasn't like last winter.  There is actually a 40-50% chance we get less snow next year depending where you are in here statistically. 

I said most so those in the nw VA hole save the protestations. 

We definitely had some snow events. The problem was that it was basically the third crappy year in a row (sans 2016 blizzard) and a lot of cities around us ended up over climo. Basically, everyone around us exceeded climo except us. Combine those two things with the fact we had a bunch of chances and generally failed and when we didn't fail, the event typically underperformed and this is what you get.

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

We can hug this..

 

The guy knows his stuff but seems to hype a bit. The storm a few weeks ago that missed us to the south west, his map had us in the 1 to 4 inch range. No model was showing that when,he posted it and ground truth was any accumulating snow was 250 miles away from us. Not sure what he is basing his maps off of sometimes.

[jayyy]

Can I just see 0z’s heartbreak so I can move on from this gerbage winter. My parents backyard in suburban New York saw 60+ on the year. I spent the prior 14 years in buffalo.  This is damn torture  

 

 

[Jandurin]

The guy knows his stuff but seems to hype a bit. The storm a few weeks ago that missed us to the south west, his map had us in the 1 to 4 inch range. No model was showing that when,he posted it and ground truth was any accumulating snow was 250 miles away from us. Not sure what he is basing his maps off of sometimes.

He bases it off his own intuition and understanding

He doesn't hype

[Maestrobjwa]

55 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I said it simply because I don’t see any more snow chances this season, and this Saturday event will turn out to be lame. So our next real shot will be next season.

As far as the season overall, it wasn’t too bad in my area or yours, but many people south of us didn’t get a single warning criteria event or just barely did, so I can see why they have a very low opinion of this past winter, not to mention the other things you mentioned. It’s easy to be more level headed if you’ve seen a 17” storm in late March and can reasonably expect a double digit storm every other year, but that’s not the case for most of the forum.

It’s been a frustrating past few years for a lot of people. Some handle it better than others. But yes, this was a much better season than last year, which was completely atrocious.

If we're gonna fail, I'd much rather it be like last year...Missed chances and near-misses feel far worse than a total shutout pattern like 2017. This winter mentally took it's toll, lol (whereas last winter there wasn't much expectation or buildup because we were never in the game in the first place!) Snow everywhere around hurts worse...mercy

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Jandurin said:

He bases it off his own intuition and understanding

He doesn't hype

His intuition is off a good bit then..lol

[Jandurin]

His intuition is off a good bit then..lol

That's fine to believe but imo he's not putting out clickbait

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Jandurin said:

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

His intuition is off a good bit then..lol

That's fine to believe but imo he's not putting out clickbait

Im sure he's not. Generally though when I have seen his stuff posted in here it's ussually aggressive and overdone considering what guidance is showing. 

[mattie g]

You people.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm disappointed in this winter like everyone else. It kinda sucked the way it underperformed potential and how everyone around us got more so I do get that. But why do people keep saying that like it didn't snow this year?  "Most" in here made it close to median snowfall this year.  This wasn't like last winter.  There is actually a 40-50% chance we get less snow next year depending where you are in here statistically. 

I said most so those in the nw VA hole save the protestations. 

How about those of us in the Fairfax County snowhole?

You can only take each year as its own. We’re so at the mercy of ENSO and teleconnections that our snowfall swings wildly based on those atmospheric and oceanic variables. You can’t simply make that blanket statement in April unless you’re just basing it on probabilities (which also neglect this year’s atmospheric conditions).

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 hours ago, Cobalt said:

How about this? Pretty horrendous

 

*THIS IS NOT FOR THIS STORM*

*THIS IS NOT FOR THIS STORM*

Even better, I believe it was the prior 0Z that put 21" IMBY.  

That model is pure garbage now.  I trust the 168hr NAM more than this piece of Euro-trash.

[Cobalt]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Even better, I believe it was the prior 0Z that put 21" IMBY.  

That model is pure garbage now.  I trust the 168hr NAM more than this piece of Euro-trash.

Euro-trash is a fitting name for the Euro

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I said it simply because I don’t see any more snow chances this season, and this Saturday event will turn out to be lame. So our next real shot will be next season.

As far as the season overall, it wasn’t too bad in my area or yours, but many people south of us didn’t get a single warning criteria event or just barely did, so I can see why they have a very low opinion of this past winter, not to mention the other things you mentioned. It’s easy to be more level headed if you’ve seen a 17” storm in late March and can reasonably expect a double digit storm every other year, but that’s not the case for most of the forum.

It’s been a frustrating past few years for a lot of people. Some handle it better than others. But yes, this was a much better season than last year, which was completely atrocious.

When I lived in northern VA I didn't grade the way I do up here though. I knew what climo was there. I grade on a curve relative to climo. Basically I try to set my expectations at close to median snowfall so I'm not disappointed most of the time. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

this winter was a pretty good example of how dc/bmore are typically too far south for miller Bs and too far north for southern sliders, which is primarily what we dealt with in this split flow or la nina regime.  we lacked a good stj and the atlantic didn't do a good job of backing the flow.

Very true. That's why we are dead in the middle of the negative departure snowfall area for Nina climo. It looks a lot like this years snowfall map actually!

[RDM]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Euro-trash is a fitting name for the Euro

I'm sort of partial to "Euro-excrement"  It just oozes out and no matter how you polish a tu$d it still stinks to high heaven. 

 

 

[mattie g]

zwyts: “The Euro doesn’t make big changes from run to run.”

#neverforget

[Cobalt]

Just now, mattie g said:

zwyts: “The Euro doesn’t make big changes from run to run.”

#neverforget

Or "The Euro & EPS combo is deadly in the short range" -unknown

[BristowWx]

So no snow on Saturday?  Not gonna lie I was really looking forward to it.  

[Roger Smith]

Looks to me like it might produce 3 to 6 inch snowfalls in southern VA and across the south-central Delmarva, trending to trace to 0.5" snowfalls near DCA to BWI and scattered 1" pockets northwest of IAD.

Too much development near FL panhandle Saturday afternoon for front to slow down in time for I-95 snowfall potential to develop much beyond 1/2mi S-- type precip there but will beef up closer to stalling front when that reaches VA-NC border, snow may continue into overnight as low develops and moves offshore SC. 

Maybe one in five chance this moves north in final runs and maxes out closer to DCA-BWI. 

 

[cae]

28 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Even better, I believe it was the prior 0Z that put 21" IMBY.  

That model is pure garbage now.  I trust the 168hr NAM more than this piece of Euro-trash.

In defense of the Euro, Cobalt posted the Euro control run.  We sometimes post those for fun, but with the understanding that nobody should expect any single ensemble member to be of much use.  Ensembles are useful when their members are considered as a group, and for looking at fantasy storms in individual members.  Those storms will usually remain a fantasy.

The Euro seems to have struggled at times this year, but it has also had storms when it did better than people give it credit for.  I think part of the problem it's having is that expectations are high, and there is a lot of good competition.  I also think we have higher expectations for day-4 op runs than we used to.  The Saturday storm just entered RGEM range, and it sounds like we're already writing the book on it.  In a way, it's a testament to how confident we've become the quality of 48-hour forecasts. 

Even though it looks like this storm won't amount to much up here, someone south of me might get measurable snow on April 7th during the day.  That's pretty amazing.  I'm pulling for a Dale City jackpot zone.

[Hurricanegiants]

You know it’s bad when there are only 10 members attending the funeral (recently browsing) at this point 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, cae said:

In defense of the Euro, Cobalt posted the Euro control run.  We sometimes post those for fun, but with the understanding that nobody should expect any single ensemble member to be of much use.  Ensembles are useful when their members are considered as a group, and for looking at fantasy storms in individual members.  Those storms will usually remain a fantasy.

The Euro seems to have struggled at times this year, but it has also had storms when it did better than people give it credit for.  I think part of the problem it's having is that expectations are high, and there is a lot of good competition.  I also think we have higher expectations for day-4 op runs than we used to.  The Saturday storm just entered RGEM range, and it sounds like we're already writing the book on it.  In a way, it's a testament to how confident we've become the quality of 48-hour forecasts. 

Even though it looks like this storm won't amount to much up here, someone south of me might get measurable snow on April 7th during the day.  That's pretty amazing.  I'm pulling for Dale City jackpot zone.

Yeah Jeb posts are classic.  He’ll be jedwalking in the nude with a giant snowflake painted on his chest.  Dale City jackpot..why not. 

[Jandurin]

In defense of the Euro, Cobalt posted the Euro control run.  We sometimes post those for fun, but with the understanding that nobody should expect any single ensemble member to be of much use.  Ensembles are useful when their members are considered as a group, and for looking at fantasy storms in individual members.  Those storms will usually remain a fantasy.
The Euro seems to have struggled at times this year, but it has also had storms when it did better than people give it credit for.  I think part of the problem it's having is that expectations are high, and there is a lot of good competition.  I also think we have higher expectations for day-4 op runs than we used to.  The Saturday storm just entered RGEM range, and it sounds like we're already writing the book on it.  In a way, it's a testament to how confident we've become the quality of 48-hour forecasts. 
Even though it looks like this storm won't amount to much up here, someone south of me might get measurable snow on April 7th during the day.  That's pretty amazing.  I'm pulling for a Dale City jackpot zone.

I agree

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, cae said:

  I also think we have higher expectations for day-4 op runs than we used to.  The Saturday storm just entered RGEM range, and it sounds like we're already writing the book on it.  In a way, it's a testament to how confident we've become the quality of 48-hour forecasts. 

 

Excellent post. Many of our past snow events didn't even begin to present as a threat until day 3-4 and were still evolving until inside 48 hours. I could lost off dozens of our warning events years past that that weren't even a thought at 5 days out. 

I think the success at crazy long leads of the 2010 and 2016 storms created an unrealistic expectation. And now some were taking guidance at day 4+ way more seriously then we should. Some recently have been referred to 72-100 hour timeframe model output as "short range" that's barely medium range really.  I think part of the problem is perception and we are stretching out expectations faster then the guidance warrants. 

The guidance has had a bad year. But some are expecting too much at long leads also. 

[Scraff]

Been out working most of the day...except the part where I had to have beer and mead for my job. So how we looking!? I’ll go ahead and guess...

[Jandurin]

Excellent post. Many of our past snow events didn't even begin to present as a threat until day 3-4 and were still evolving until inside 48 hours. I could lost off dozens of our warning events years past that that weren't even a thought at 5 days out. 

I think the success at crazy long leads of the 2010 and 2016 storms created an unrealistic expectation. And now some were taking guidance at day 4+ way more seriously then we should. Some recently have been referred to 72-100 hour timeframe model output as "short range" that's barely medium range really.  I think part of the problem is perception and we are stretching out expectations faster then the guidance warrants. 

The guidance has had a bad year. But some are expecting too much at long leads also. 

The issue isn't guidance it's actual snow on the ground or the lack thereof

 

In my opinion

 

[tplbge]

Nationals in every postseason > Euro this postseason

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Been out working most of the day...except the part where I had to have beer and mead for my job. So how we looking!? I’ll go ahead and guess...

You’ve done this before.  Yeah that about sums it up.  Frontal passage with anemic precip and marginal results.  

[Amped]

Euro is the best model even if it's wrong sometimes.

NAM is the worst model even if it's right sometimes.

That's why we have lots of other models.    But sometimes the condenses of all models ends up being an error.   And hopefully that error is giving us too little snow. This hobby would be a lot more boring if models always nailed it.