Ji Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z yesterday started the falling apart. 18z today starts the return. exactly...the north trend/juice still start in earnest tonight at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 3:54 PM, yoda said: Congrats E33 and E44. Honorable mention E40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: exactly...the north trend/juice still start in earnest tonight at 00z 3k looks more juiced. Through 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: Congrats E33 and E44. Honorable mention E40. wow.....you never see this stuff in the inflated Euro stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, Ji said: wow.....you never see this stuff in the inflated Euro stats How about this? Pretty horrendous *THIS IS NOT FOR THIS STORM* *THIS IS NOT FOR THIS STORM* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Congrats E33 and E44. Honorable mention E40. That looks like quite a few Ensemble members want to keep us on the edge of the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, snowmagnet said: That looks like quite a few Ensemble members want to keep us on the edge of the cliff. That's old sadly. Took me a glance or two to realize it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: How about this? Pretty horrendous *THIS IS NOT FOR THIS STORM* *THIS IS NOT FOR THIS STORM* Oh right. The Euro is on crack this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Yay it's trending towards the ukmet Sunday tease too. Have to extract maximum pain from this last fail!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: wow.....you never see this stuff in the inflated Euro stats It's a numbers game. 2/52 times this is going to happen. 4/52 times well get an e35, e46,e15,49 combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 This pretty much sums it up(the lameness) from the Mount Holly AFD- The big question becomes how much snow actually accumulates. Many factors come into play at this time. We are getting late in the season, so the sun angle is getting higher. Most of any snow would fall during the daytime, which would coincide with warmer surface temperatures. Also, any rainfall from overnight would likely suppress significant accumulations. All of this is mainly dependent on snowfall rates, which are not expected to be significant at this time. With all this said, we are generally expecting around an inch or less, mainly across the I-95 corridor southward. If any of the above factors shift in the other direction, especially snowfall rates, totals could go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I think the Euro has given me 150+ inches of digital snow this winter. No, I do not live in Canaan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The NAMs were not an improvement and were a trend the wrong way. Yes they look north if you just look at the colors on the precip type map. But the precip is all just from an anafront setup early Saturday morning. That's not even the storm we were tracking it's just the cold front ahead of the storm. There is no upside beyond snow tv with that. The actual storm is completely squashed to nothing. To the point it leaves enough energy to even try to develop something south of us and hit NC and southern VA Sunday. The 18z nam was worse and continued the wrong trend with the threat of a significant wave Saturday. If you will be happy with some snow tv with the front then yay it's a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Ugh that's it. We're down to the SREF! We're passing the last exit before the cliff. Giddy up. CRAS was a decent hit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The NAMs were not an improvement and were a trend the wrong way. Yes they look north if you just look at the colors on the precip type map. But the precip is all just from an anafront setup early Saturday morning. That's not even the storm we were tracking it's just the cold front ahead of the storm. There is no upside beyond snow tv with that. The actual storm is completely squashed to nothing. To the point it leaves enough energy to even try to develop something south of us and hit NC and southern VA Sunday. The 18z nam was worse and continued the wrong trend with the threat of a significant wave Saturday. If you will be happy with some snow tv with the front then yay it's a good run. I think from here on...whenever we have a La Niña winter, I'm just gonna assume this result until it's actually snowing. How many times have we used the word "squashed" this winter? This winter has been a painful lesson of how bad La Niñas can be (yet total-wise, will go down as average). I can't stand squash the vegetable...and I can't stand the squash of La Niña either...they both taste disgusting, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 18z ICON got a little better. It doesn't really get going until 18z on Saturday, so we're still 48 hours out. I think DC still has a good chance at some accumulations, but the chance of a signficant storm for northern MD is small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The show continues on the GFS. you can clearly see it's southwest with the low again at 54 hrs. Pretty soon there will be a 2nd shot Saturday night for SE sections. See P005 on the 12z Gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I'm losing interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I'm losing interest You really do hold on to the bitter end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, Jandurin said: 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm losing interest You really do hold on to the bitter end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Oh well. Maybe next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Oh well. Maybe next winter. I'm disappointed in this winter like everyone else. It kinda sucked the way it underperformed potential and how everyone around us got more so I do get that. But why do people keep saying that like it didn't snow this year? "Most" in here made it close to median snowfall this year. This wasn't like last winter. There is actually a 40-50% chance we get less snow next year depending where you are in here statistically. I said most so those in the nw VA hole save the protestations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 SREF or bust..Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm disappointed in this winter like everyone else. It kinda sucked the way it underperformed potential and how everyone around us got more so I do get that. But why do people keep saying that like it didn't snow this year? "Most" in here made it close to median snowfall this year. This wasn't like last winter. There is actually a 40-50% chance we get less snow next year depending where you are in here statistically. I said most so those in the nw VA hole save the protestations. I said it simply because I don’t see any more snow chances this season, and this Saturday event will turn out to be lame. So our next real shot will be next season. As far as the season overall, it wasn’t too bad in my area or yours, but many people south of us didn’t get a single warning criteria event or just barely did, so I can see why they have a very low opinion of this past winter, not to mention the other things you mentioned. It’s easy to be more level headed if you’ve seen a 17” storm in late March and can reasonably expect a double digit storm every other year, but that’s not the case for most of the forum. It’s been a frustrating past few years for a lot of people. Some handle it better than others. But yes, this was a much better season than last year, which was completely atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I'm disappointed in this winter like everyone else. It kinda sucked the way it underperformed potential and how everyone around us got more so I do get that. But why do people keep saying that like it didn't snow this year? "Most" in here made it close to median snowfall this year. This wasn't like last winter. There is actually a 40-50% chance we get less snow next year depending where you are in here statistically. I said most so those in the nw VA hole save the protestations. Before March 21 I barely had a snow that covered the roadI usually do pretty wellThis snow board crap has inflated totals in terms of actual snowfall feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 To put it in perspective My road has not been plowed since 2016 JanuaryNot a single plow was needed or used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Nor have I shoveled my personal driveway since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Fozz said: I said it simply because I don’t see any more snow chances this season and this Saturday event will turn out to be lame. So our next real shot will be next season. As far as the season overall, it wasn’t too bad in my area or yours, but many people south of us didn’t get a single warning criteria event or just barely did, so I can see why they have a very low opinion of this past winter, not to mention the other things you mentioned. It’s easy to be more level headed if you’ve seen a 17” storm in late March and can reasonably expect a double digit storm every other year, but that’s not the case for most of the forum. It’s been a frustrating past few years for a lot of people. Some handle it better than others. But yes, this was a much better season than last year, which was completely atrocious. this winter was a pretty good example of how dc/bmore are typically too far south for miller Bs and too far north for southern sliders, which is primarily what we dealt with in this split flow or la nina regime. we lacked a good stj and the atlantic didn't do a good job of backing the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: this winter was a pretty good example of how dc/bmore are typically too far south for miller Bs and too far north for southern sliders, which is primarily what we dealt with in this split flow or la nina regime. we lacked a good stj and the atlantic didn't do a good job of backing the flow. Yeah, exactly. It’s a miracle that some of us got close to climo considering the ENSO state. I guess it took a really good block in March to give us some scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The last 2 years have been an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely horrendous. I dont care if there was better tracking this year, it sucked just as bad as the previous year. There was nothing once again. Hoping for a great 2018/2019, we are due. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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