Subtropics Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Richmond's Biggest April Snowfalls: 1. 10.0", April 3, 1915 2. 2.7", April 11-12, 1918 3. 2.0", April 28, 1898 and April 12, 1940 5. 1.2", April 13, 1957 and April 1, 1964 7. 1.0", April 7, 2007 8. 0.6", April 7, 1971 9. 0.2", April 9, 1914, April 16, 1935, April 21, 1953, April 9, 1982, and April 7, 1990 Notes: 1. The April 28, 1898 snowfall resulted from a severe nor'easter. Further north, Cape May, NJ reported trees blown down and "outbuildings in the country" having been "demolished" by the high winds. At that location, 3" of snow fell before the snow changed to a combination of heavy rain mixed with sleet. 2. The April 12, 1940 storm brought 1.3" to Norfolk. That is Norfolk's largest April snowfall on record. 3. The March 30-April 1, 1964 three-day period saw 7.2" snow fall at Richmond. Hi Mr. Southerland. Do you have data on Raleigh's 10 largest april snows? I'd be curious! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 it looks like the entire storm is pretty much cancelledNext week's threat will rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 12z ICON is the ultimate lulz... along a line from EZF to CHO get the good snows.. north of DCA is nada zilch zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jandurin said: yeah it was weird how people kept saying the two like they were separate i thought i was missing something It's not a 1:1 correlation. If you get a better cold press ahead of the system but also trend towards more separation and a stronger wave then pushing the boundary back north it's possible to get a south and stinger solution. That was what we saw a few days ago when for a time the models had this as a Saturday night system coming from the west blasting into the established cold. That was a best case scenario. So there are more variables but in general a weaker wave will be south and stronger north 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: one day you might contribute to the board..and actually be funny too i'll never be funny but i can sure act like and adult over weather. One day you might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 42 minutes ago, Jandurin said: no worries the JMA says we're golden A storm set to come through on peak cherry blossom weekend seems like one we should delegate to the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 12z GFS has DCA snowing at 12z SAT fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: ICON is the lulz... EZF and south get the snows.. north of there basically nada Yea if the rest of today's guidance trends to that it's close to game over north of Baltimore. This can recover but it's not going to shift 150 miles the last 24 hours. We've been there needing that much before and it ends in a tease. Need to keep this hanging around right at our doorstep so the final 50 mile north shift helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Weak sauce on the GFS still.....this ones over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The GFS looks pretty identical so far, maybe a touch North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 so far everything that showmethesnow has projected has gone the opposite...this storm has lost its juice. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 worthless ensembles...models...i could see us not getting even .10 from this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: worthless ensembles...models...i could see us not getting even .10 from this event Playing guitar is a much better and more rewarding hobby than this. I wish I could play guitar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Still possible: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Well, so much for my concern about the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Weak sauce on the GFS still.....this ones over. Models took away 90% of our sauce on the last 3 runs. We're practically eating the pasta straight up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I wouldn’t hang my hat on any one solution until after 12z Friday. Many pieces to the puzzle. For certain though the NS is stronger and the cold airmass may be stronger than previously modeled. That would suppress this system and not amplify. Looks like what is happening in the guidance, but just 24 hours ago we were dealing with northern trends bordering Ptype issues. Still a range of uncertainty and like my earlier post we are dealing with a dynamic spring system and it can still trend back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: so far everything that showmethesnow has projected has gone the opposite...this storm has lost its juice. Wow... I have been wrong more times then I would like to count. That said I am sticking with my thoughts on this juicing up somewhat and the axis of heaviest snow being located between DC and the PA line regardless of what the models show at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 How many storm threats have been modeled right two days out so far? Any of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, winterymix said: Still possible: lol... I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 12z GGEM even further SE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Ugh is what I feel looking at the 6z and 12z guidance. Not because it's south but why. No separation behind the NS wave and barely even a ripple along the front anymore. It's becoming just a kink on a pressing boundary with some anafront snow. Not even a legit storm. If I don't see some improvements tonight I'll start to kiss this goodbye. But then we can move on to the real threat next week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z GGEM even further SE lol Ggem isn't even a storm. Barely even a wave on the front at all. It's just a trailing cold front behind the NS system over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 38 minutes ago, Ji said: worthless ensembles...models...i could see us not getting even .10 from this event You would save yourself a lot of angst by accepting that models do not predict weather but rather give examples of all possible outcomes models have predicted 0-15" of snow 4/5 times this season and they have been right each time, mostly along the 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 wtf is happening in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh is what I feel looking at the 6z and 12z guidance. Not because it's south but why. No separation behind the NS wave and barely even a ripple along the front anymore. It's becoming just a kink on a pressing boundary with some anafront snow. Not even a legit storm. If I don't see some improvements tonight I'll start to kiss this goodbye. But then we can move on to the real threat next week!!! Yeah middle part of the jet is flatter, that is what is causing the precip reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 You can see what is going on if you look near Nebraska. Just a weaker more positively tilted disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Props to the UKMET (probably). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Well look at that. An april storm that might not work out. Sorry climo took away all that euro pink from the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, mappy said: wtf is happening in here? Nothing is happening...nothing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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