midatlanticweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 hour ago, H2O said: I'm not worried. By the end of today the models will go back north and we will be saying congrats Albany. How I feel. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Models are likely not done fluctuating on the target snow areas. Couple things to factor in. For one we are dealing with a highly anomalous cold air intrusion. It’s a spring system so the battleground between the cold and warm is likely to be difficult to ascertain in the guidance. Convection breaking out on the boundary over the MS Valley could be overdone which can force the boundary too far south. If it’s underdone, boundary can progress to set up further north. Plus there are several pieces of energy coming into the trough from the PAC NW and Plains. A lot of moving parts, but either way we will be dealing with quite a dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Richmond's Biggest April Snowfalls: 1. 10.0", April 3, 1915 2. 2.7", April 11-12, 1918 3. 2.0", April 28, 1898 and April 12, 1940 5. 1.2", April 13, 1957 and April 1, 1964 7. 1.0", April 7, 2007 8. 0.6", April 7, 1971 9. 0.2", April 9, 1914, April 16, 1935, April 21, 1953, April 9, 1982, and April 7, 1990 Notes: 1. The April 28, 1898 snowfall resulted from a severe nor'easter. Further north, Cape May, NJ reported trees blown down and "outbuildings in the country" having been "demolished" by the high winds. At that location, 3" of snow fell before the snow changed to a combination of heavy rain mixed with sleet. 2. The April 12, 1940 storm brought 1.3" to Norfolk. That is Norfolk's largest April snowfall on record. 3. The March 30-April 1, 1964 three-day period saw 7.2" snow fall at Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I think leesburg 04 is in Wisconsin right now. Anyone else hear the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, mattie g said: I think leesburg 04 is in Wisconsin right now. Anyone else hear the same? its been snowy and cold from what i can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 hours ago, mattie g said: I couldn't care less whether it actually snows or not on Saturday. I'm only interested insofar as I need to be the jackpot - whether that's 1" or 10". It's it's nothing anywhere, then that's fine, too. #honestyisthebestpolicy I tend to agree with you...but then I remember how tired I am of walking/running in temps in low 40s-low 50s, knowing that A. temps should be a bit higher at this point in the season, and B. I'm tired of being cold when stepping outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I think the NWS snowfall forecast is a bit high. It is April, and the core PV is too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Hard for me to believe that anyone in this forum dosnt care if snows or not on Saturday. I do believe however, allot of people here only care about being in the jackpot area.. Why? I don't know... (THEN AGAIN ) Im in Richmond but,will be headed up to Leesburg on Sat. (So this could be fun, fun trip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Hard for me to believe anyone in this forum that they don't care if actually snows or not on Saturday. I do believe allot of people here only care about being in the jackpot area.. Why? I don't know... (THEN AGAIN ) Im in Richmond but,will be headed up to Leesburg on Sat. (So this could be fun, fun trip) We here in Leesburg will welcome you with open arms to experience the JI Snowhole of NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Hard for me to believe that anyone in this forum dosnt care if snows or not on Saturday. I do believe however, allot of people here only care about being in the jackpot area.. Why? I don't know... (THEN AGAIN ) Im in Richmond but,will be headed up to Leesburg on Sat. (So this could be fun, fun trip) it's been a long uneventful winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Richmond's Biggest April Snowfalls: 1. 10.0", April 3, 1915 2. 2.7", April 11-12, 1918 3. 2.0", April 28, 1898 and April 12, 1940 5. 1.2", April 13, 1957 and April 1, 1964 7. 1.0", April 7, 2007 8. 0.6", April 7, 1971 9. 0.2", April 9, 1914, April 16, 1935, April 21, 1953, April 9, 1982, and April 7, 1990 Notes: 1. The April 28, 1898 snowfall resulted from a severe nor'easter. Further north, Cape May, NJ reported trees blown down and "outbuildings in the country" having been "demolished" by the high winds. At that location, 3" of snow fell before the snow changed to a combination of heavy rain mixed with sleet. 2. The April 12, 1940 storm brought 1.3" to Norfolk. That is Norfolk's largest April snowfall on record. 3. The March 30-April 1, 1964 three-day period saw 7.2" snow fall at Richmond. How has Richmond done better in April than us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Early but NAM looking like it may be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The storm isn’t even getting its act together in the southern plains like it used to...just not anywhere near as juiced. Don’t think this NAM run will be great either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 starting to get a clearer idea of how this will unfold. assuming we actually get a storm, it's going to be a race of cold vs the low to the south. the nam looks like it's about to show the initial part being a little warm and then a transition to snow. the question is does the cold outpace the heavier precip? i don't think we'll really know until tomorrow night when looking at the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I guess it’s a little better with precip but the cold press isn’t as good either. Another wrinkle I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: The storm isn’t even getting its act together in the southern plains like it used to...just not anywhere near as juiced. Don’t think this NAM run will be great either 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I guess it’s a little better with precip but the cold press isn’t as good either. Another wrinkle I guess instead of guessing what it will do, why not just let the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I guess it’s a little better with precip but the cold press isn’t as good either. Another wrinkle I guess looks like it starts as rain, ends as snow. can't imagine this gets too far north with that upper low over canada. it's kind of not a great setup, but for april...i guess the setups look weirder (i.e., probably difficult to get a strong high over quebec). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Eh, it's ok. 0.5" of precip at DC. Not the bomb we were looking at previously, but it's all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: looks like it starts as rain, ends as snow. can't imagine this gets too far north with that upper low over canada. it's kind of not a great setup, but for april...i guess the setups look weirder (i.e., probably difficult to get a strong high over quebec). I just liked the earlier runs where this was a legit developing juiced storm in the southern plains. This run didn’t have that but I guess it wasn’t an awful run. 3” right thru DC and Balt now whether that really accumulates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Let's just hope the NAM is wrong. Hopefully, the GFS calms nerves in the next 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I just liked the earlier runs where this was a legit developing juiced storm in the southern plains. This run didn’t have that but I guess it wasn’t an awful run. 3” right thru DC and Balt now whether that really accumulates i don't even mess with snow maps anymore. they're garbage. the precip map cobalt posted looks good for dc, but again...it's a race against the cold. it's an interesting setup...but not a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I just liked the earlier runs where this was a legit developing juiced storm in the southern plains. This run didn’t have that but I guess it wasn’t an awful run. 3” right thru DC and Balt now whether that really accumulates I see your concern. Not the juiced 1" QPF beast the models were showing this time yesterday. Perhaps the early morning onset could help us out a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 it'll come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I see your concern. Not the juiced 1" QPF beast the models were showing this time yesterday. Perhaps the early morning onset could help us out a bit it's still wobbling. other mets here have mentioned how the boundary will shift each run and that's exactly what's happening. i would guess by 0z tonight there will be consistencies with that. we're getting really close...within 48 hrs now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 We switch to snow at 10z on the 3K. Now we wait for precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: We switch to snow at 10z on the 3K. Now we wait for precip amounts That's an early onset for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Let's just hope the NAM is wrong. Hopefully, the GFS calms nerves in the next 90 minutes. For some reason, I’m riding the GFS to the finish line. Oh wait. I know why. Because America! And it’s been king all winter. Why stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 This is a really impressive cold front On this iteration of the 3k NAM we go from this at 04z to this 6 hrs later at 10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 pretty impressive temp crash on the nam. around 50 at midnight to near freezing by 6/7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 A strung out mess like the NAM would be a disappointment for most. Waiting for cold air and meh rates while the sun is burning through the clouds would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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