April 7-8 snow event

[SnowLover22]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Seriously dudes. 8am with surface and wet bulb sub freezing and good omegas. This would be legit mid winter type of snow coming down. Sounding looks amazing until you look at the date and then think the gfs was hacked. This literally never happens like ever and it's mid range. I'm trying hard to find flaws... even surface wind is out of the north...lol

 

Well cold temps can beat sun angle right?

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Seriously dudes. 8am with surface and wet bulb sub freezing and good omegas. This would be legit mid winter type of snow coming down. Sounding looks amazing until you look at the date and then think the gfs was hacked. This literally never happens like ever and it's mid range. I'm trying hard to find flaws... even surface wind is out of the north...lol
 

7am to noon is accumulating window

It's still not 10-1 stuff. Ground temps will fight as will the sun angle. But taken at face value...there might even be street stickage. lol

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Well cold temps can beat sun angle right?

It's inch per hour from 12-18z. Not inch per hour on the ground but inch per hour rates. Nutty. Yes, that would overcome the enemies. Still 4-5:1 type of stickage but if the gfs happens as is...we all have a winter wonderland on saturday and then it gets into the low 20's overnight. We might have snow on the ground for 24 hours...on April 7th. heh

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If this was hr180 I wouldn't give it a second thought. But this is the gfs throwing down these soundings. And it's not like the euro is much different overall. There is potential for an historic April event of the last what? 50 years?

Probably the last hundred, if we can find April records that go back that far.

[Bob Chill]

Even with the built in UHI stuff on the gfs...DC still gets 3-4" on the run. I mean yea, it seems like loony tunes kind of stuff but we can't just toss it anymore. If the rates don't materialize then it's snow tv. If the last 2 runs of the gfs are on point then get our cameras ready because this ain't happening again until I'm no longer on this planet. 

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's still not 10-1 stuff. Ground temps will fight as will the sun angle. But taken at face value...there might even be street stickage. lol

The farther north and west locations as well as elevation may obtain closer to 10:1 snow to water ground truth stickage.

[Bob Chill]

I'll say this...after the last month i've been through...this would mean a lot to me. I'm not trying to be all mushy and stuff but Saturday may be some well needed therapy. 

[Jebman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Even with the built in UHI stuff on the gfs...DC still gets 3-4" on the run. I mean yea, it seems like loony tunes kind of stuff but we can't just toss it anymore. If the rates don't materialize then it's snow tv. If the last 2 runs of the gfs are on point then get our cameras ready because this ain't happening again until I'm no longer on this planet. 

Don't be too sure of that....... climate change is provoking and will end up sustaining unbelievable perturbations.

It will get crazier still. Bank on it in the coming years.

Not just snow. Wind  events, hurricanes, flooding we have not seen in g-d knows how long, damaging hailstorms, electrical storms.......

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Jebman said:

Don't be too sure of that....... climate change is pushing unbelievable perturbations.

It will get crazier still. Bank on it in the coming years.

Nah, this is just weather being weather. It happens sometimes but records only go back so far. Every once in a while things just line up. It's like organized chaos at times. 

[SnowLover22]

Cmc is a little too warm but general idea is there. 

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, this is just weather being weather. It happens sometimes but records only go back so far. Every once in a while things just line up. It's like organized chaos at times. 

Kind of like when things line up every once in a while in gambling and you win the huge jackpot, lol

 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Jebman said:

Kind of like when things line up every once in a while in gambling and you with the huge jackpot, lol

Yep, press the runs and pick up your chips when you lose 3 hands in a row. Always leave a winner when you're up. Smart gambling 101 and stuff. 

[cae]

ICON came back north from its 18z run, and is now in line with other guidance (and its previous runs).  Looks like 18z was a blip.  I know this is the wrong thread, but fwiw it gets some snow into northern MD from the second system.

[WEATHER53]

All the albedo  for this time of year could have big effect later

i can't believe this could start later than 9am and no matter how heavy actually accumulate. I'm all in though thaf it's  even here to talk about 

 

[Deck Pic]

0z Euro 

[Deck Pic]

Euro is a stone cold assassin. Concerns would be that it shifted north and a bit warmer.

[Deck Pic]

Sweet Dreams

Kuchera

 

[Mordecai]

Well 00z Euro was definitely worth staying up for. I have a feeling it will shift north though. Being in the bullseye ~3.5 days out isn't always great. 

[MillvilleWx]

11 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

0z Euro 

There really isn't much to say about that run that isn't explicit on a weather board. For the love of god, I hope the Euro is on to something for once this year. I'll say this, if that look were to happen during the day, I don't care if it's April, that stuff would stick to the roads in a heartbeat. Temps aloft around -5C from H85 to H7 too. Incredible. Strong diffluent area ahead of the shortwave trough too. That would be something else Matt. I'd take 1/2 of what the Euro is showing. 

[showmethesnow]

EPS was very good to us. 

EPS control.

EPS mean.

[North Balti Zen]

Sorry for this in-depth analysis...good lord. 

[CAPE]

6z NAM *out of range* tracks the low a bit further north. 850s stay warmish for I95 east. Best snow area would be the NW burbs.

Not that I am buying the NAM at range, but this is actually what I expect given the very late date we are dealing with. Heavy wet snow NW of the fall line, with rain/sleet to slop south and east and maybe a coating. GFS will correct quite a bit further NW and the Euro a bit more over the next couple days. I predict PSU will be biting his nails again.

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the individual ensemble members it seems that as far as the 00Z EPS is concerned a suppressed solution is pretty much off the table. It only has 3 solutions and two of them still get snow into DC and one that has snow centered on the VA/N Car line. At this point it looks as if the far bigger concern is that it shifts everything too far north as there are quite a few members that have the axis of heaviest snow around the PA line or even farther north.

As far as the means on the EPS? I can't believe I am going to utter this considering we are talking April but... They are under done and possibly by quite a bit on the heavier axis of snow. The solutions on the heavier axis of snow range from DC all the way up into southern and even central PA. This is tending to spread out the snowfall over a much larger area and washing out the higher totals. Once the EPS locks in on a general track I would not be surprised if we start seeing means with 12+ inch if not higher inch totals because many of the members are that impressive with snowfall.

[H2O]

Too much north trend now. Went from 10” to 6”. By Saturday it will be a T

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the individual ensemble members it seems that as far as the 00Z EPS is concerned a suppressed solution is pretty much off the table. It only has 3 solutions and two of them still get snow into DC and one that has snow centered on the VA/N Car line. At this point it looks as if the far bigger concern is that it shifts everything too far north as there are quite a few members that have the axis of heaviest snow around the PA line or even farther north.

As far as the means on the EPS? I can't believe I am going to utter this considering we are talking April but... They are under done and possibly by quite a bit on the heavier axis of snow. The solutions on the heavier axis of snow range from DC all the way up into southern and even central PA. This is tending to spread out the snowfall over a much larger area and washing out the higher totals. Once the EPS locks in on a general track I would not be surprised if we start seeing means with 12+ inch if not higher inch totals because many of the members are that impressive with snowfall.

Never bought the idea of a suppressed wave riding an arctic boundary in the second week of April. That was LR model error and was never going to happen.

As for the current runs and where things stand, the 12z Euro op yesterday was too aggressive/unrealistic with the cold. The 0z run is a bit warmer. I think this trend continues. I expect the far western highlands and the norther tier of MD into southern PA to be the most likely places to see several inches of very wet snow. Somewhere far west maybe could see a foot. This should end up like the last event was supposed to lol.

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the 500's it looks as if the EPS is making an attempt to further intensify and bring this low up the coast. We are seeing better dig with our trough driving into the east as well as what looks to be now an attempt for ridging in front of it in the Atlantic. All this is creating a better overall look with our trough as it swings through our region. Can see the results on the surface where we still have the low riding east of the benchmark but there was a pronounced shift westward of the low's track and an obvious increase with low pressures on both the means and many of the ensemble members. 

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the 500's it looks as if the EPS is making an attempt to further intensify and bring this low up the coast. We are seeing better dig with our trough driving into the east as well as what looks to be now an attempt for ridging in front of it in the Atlantic. All this is creating a better overall look with our trough as it swings through our region. Can see the results on the surface where we still have the low riding east of the benchmark but there was a pronounced shift westward of the low's track and an obvious increase with low pressures on both the means and many of the ensemble members. 

Looking at the overnight GEFS compared to its 12Z run we are seeing the same trend as the EPS with the better dig and the possibility of some ridging developing in front of it. 

Thought there was a good possibility of seeing more of a traditional coastal low and track just a couple few days ago but backed off just yesterday when we weren't seeing any response from the models. Might have been too soon to back track as it now seems the models may be seeing the possibility. Would add an interesting twist to everything if this were to be the case.

[CAPE]

6z GFS still has the low moving along the cold front and getting shunted offshore of the NC coast pretty far south. Still produces a nice swath of snow across the region. 

[showmethesnow]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Never bought the idea of a suppressed wave riding an arctic boundary in the second week of April. That was LR model error and was never going to happen.

As for the current runs and where things stand, the 12z Euro op yesterday was too aggressive/unrealistic with the cold. The 0z run is a bit warmer. I think this trend continues. I expect the far western highlands and the norther tier of MD into southern PA to be the most likely places to see several inches of very wet snow. Somewhere far west maybe could see a foot. This should end up like the last event was supposed to lol.

This is a somewhat anomalous event so i am not really sure what to believe at this time so I am trying not to prejudge things just because of the time of the year. Pretty much just along for the ride to where the models take us.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

6z GFS still has the low moving along the cold front and getting shunted offshore of the NC coast pretty far south. Still produces a nice swath of snow across the region. 

Mentioned this yesterday but think late Thursday/Fri morning time frame could have a sneaky event pop up (dusting to an inch) for those around the PA line and possibly fairly close into the cities. WAA aloft in those setups get underplayed and delayed quite often on the models so i would not be surprised with a little earlier arrival (before sunrise) and a little heavier precip then now depicted.